Decision Tree Analysis and assigning Expected Value as it relates to Cam.

[SBiii]

30 minutes ago, mc52beast said:

It’s possible that Cam doesn’t want to play for the Panthers anymore. Seems there’s a rift between him and Ron over how he hid the injury and then how it was handled by the staff. He could easily just refuse to play.

He certainly could. 

It would be a horrible decision to do so but you are correct in saying it is in the set of possible outcomes.

[TheRed]

Is it really too much effort to just remove OP's thread creation privileges, and be done with it?

[SBiii]

36 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He loves to play this game of "smartest guy in the room" regardless of if anyone cares or if the topic is even remotely intelligent. 

Jeez....here I am doing my best to support QB1 and elucidate a numerically logical case for keeping him in a Carolina Football Panthers uniform and this is the thanks I get?

OK, I'll cut straight to the chase --- my model places the following Expected Values on the 3 outcomes:

1. Cut Scenario:  Expected Vaue = ($2,000,000)

2. Trade Scenario:  Expected Value = $19,500,000

3. Retain Cam Scenario:  Expected Value = $52,326,000

Looks like a pretty easy choice to me. 

Retaining Cam is clearly the best choice for Tepper and the Panthers.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, SBiii said:

Jeez....here I am doing my best to support QB1 and elucidate a numerically logical case for keeping him in a Carolina Football Panthers uniform and this is the thanks I get?

OK, I'll cut straight to the chase --- my model places the following Expected Values on the 3 outcomes:

1.  The Cut Scenario:  Expected Vaue = ($2,000,000)

2.  The Trade Scenario:  Expected Value = $19,500,000

3.  The Retain Cam Scenario:  Expected Value = $52,326,000

Looks like a pretty easy choice to me.

Have you ever maybe thought that a condescending thread with no actual data, facts or even relevant info is maybe not the best way to get across whatever fuging point you are trying to make? Here, let me help you out.....

1. Start thread and choose title.

2. State thesis.

3. Provide relevant facts and/data.

4. Click submit.

Maybe not some dumbass game of "Oh ask me a question about this subject and I will shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiine." Just state your fuging point or don't make a thread at all. 

[uncfan888]

10 minutes ago, SBiii said:

Jeez....here I am doing my best to support QB1 and elucidate a numerically logical case for keeping him in a Carolina Football Panthers uniform and this is the thanks I get?

OK, I'll cut straight to the chase --- my model places the following Expected Values on the 3 outcomes:

1. Cut Scenario:  Expected Vaue = ($2,000,000)

2. Trade Scenario:  Expected Value = $19,500,000

3. Retain Cam Scenario:  Expected Value = $52,326,000

Looks like a pretty easy choice to me. 

Retaining Cam is clearly the best choice for Tepper and the Panthers.

I wish the mods would elucidate you off the board

[Happy Panther]

10 minutes ago, SBiii said:

Jeez....here I am doing my best to support QB1 and elucidate a numerically logical case for keeping him in a Carolina Football Panthers uniform and this is the thanks I get?

OK, I'll cut straight to the chase --- my model places the following Expected Values on the 3 outcomes:

1. Cut Scenario:  Expected Vaue = ($2,000,000)

2. Trade Scenario:  Expected Value = $19,500,000

3. Retain Cam Scenario:  Expected Value = $52,326,000

Looks like a pretty easy choice to me. 

Retaining Cam is clearly the best choice for Tepper and the Panthers.

How in the world did you arrive at those numbers?

 

[SBiii]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Have you ever maybe thought that a condescending thread with no actual data, facts or even relevant info is maybe not the best way to get across whatever fuging point you are trying to make? Here, let me help you out.....

1. Start thread and choose title.

2. State thesis.

3. Provide relevant facts and/data.

4. Click submit.

Maybe not some dumbass game of "Oh ask me a question about this subject and I will shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiine." Just state your fuging point or don't make a thread at all. 

Seems like every reader retains the option to scroll on by.....but OK.

So whadya think of those Expected Values?

If I remember correctly you too are in favor of retaining Cam?

[kungfoodude]

Just now, Happy Panther said:

How in the world did you arrive at those numbers?

 

INB4 "OH NOW I WILL SHOW THEM HOW SMART I AM. I AM GLAD YOU ASKED."

[SBiii]

1 hour ago, Happy Panther said:

How in the world did you arrive at those numbers?

Using standard operating decision tree analysis.

The Cut Scenario is straight forward, pay out $2 million and no potential returns after that.

The Trade Scenario considers the $21 million in salary savings, the value of a #1 pick, and several different outcomes on how the pick/player might develop over the course of 5-years (bust, serviceable backup, superstar akin to Cam).

The Retain Scenario is similar and considers the cost of $21 million to be paid in salary, and several different outcomes on how it might play out with Cam over the following 5-years (bust, serviceable backup, returns to superstar status). 

Each of the various outcomes is assigned a value and then %'s are applied to each outcome....in the end the net-value of each outcome is summed up to arrive at a total-value.

In the Retain Cam Scenario I assumed .333 > .333 > .333 odds as it relates to him being a bust, serviceable backup, or returning to superstar status in the 5-years starting w/ the 2021 season.

Curious if you think those odds assumptions are logical?  What would you assign?

NOTE: analysis uses QB salaries & presumes the #1 pick would be spent on another QB.

 

[uncfan888]

[kungfoodude]

Also, side note, a non-graphical decision tree is pretty pointless.

[CanadianCat]

I am familiar with this in  my line of work.

But this is a stupid and pointless thread that will just make people hate you if you dont actually do it yourself in the OP. 

 

I though this (and was really hoping for) was going to be a well thought out thread when I clicked on it. Now I just hate SBiii like everyone else.. 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

I am familiar with this in  my line of work.

But this is a stupid and pointless thread that will just make people hate you if you dont actually do it yourself in the OP. 

 

I though this (and was really hoping for) was going to be a well thought out thread when I clicked on it. Now I just hate SBiii like everyone else.. 

He's done this before. Take a relatively simple concept and make it into a condescending, smarty pants Q&A session. I cannot recall a poster that was so insanely obsessed with being the smartest guy in the room or having some inside knowledge that others weren't able to perceive. I supposed this is what narcissistic personality disorder looks like in an electronic format.

[CanadianCat]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

He's done this before. Take a relatively simple concept and make it into a condescending, smarty pants Q&A session. I cannot recall a poster that was so insanely obsessed with being the smartest guy in the room or having some inside knowledge that others weren't able to perceive. I supposed this is what narcissistic personality disorder looks like in an electronic format.