Changing the coaching and GM philosophy

[MHS831]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Maybe not 40, but there's no way I see him or his agent accepting less than 30 million when guys like Kirk Cousins, Matt Stafford and Jared frigging Goff are making over that.

Remember last contract his one condition was to be paid more than Matt Ryan, and now Ryan is way up there.

If the $19.1 million is causing concern (we assume it is but do not know), then $35m is out of the question.

Cam's silence and absence not a good sign for those looking to sign him up for 4 more years.  I just do not feel the vibe headed that way.'

Some will get mad about that....but Tepper is going to be Tepper.  That is how he got rich.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

We also don't know if any of that is true, just posturing or leaked for the specific intents. We will see if it turns out to be the case or not. I wouldn't blame him if he did want a new contract and I wouldn't blame him if he decided to take one last crack with the current contract to maximize his potential earnings.

He took a reasonable, team friendly contract the last time, though.

If you're him or his agent and the team comes to you and asks you to do that again, keeping in mind this is in all likelihood your last contract, what would you say?

 

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

That's why I said potentially. I just can't see anyone giving Cam huge guaranteed money considering his recent injury history. I think he's likely looking at an incentive heavy contract anywhere he goes.

Only takes one team.

And while I'm not ready to go tinfoil hat here, the chances of someone doing that do go way when you're able to say you sat out a year to get healthy as opposed to returning and playing badly.

[MHS831]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Fun fact, of our top ten contracts currently(based on avg/year) only three players have a LOWER percentage of guaranteed money than Cam's contract.

I honestly think people are pushing a narrative trying to paint Cam as unreasonable financially when that has not really been the case. 

It is not Cam--it is the going market rate.  If 2000 sq foot homes are selling for $200K in your neighborhood, you don't take $180K. 

Cam is not greedy--never once complained about $$.  The 2015 Cam is worth the going rate---but the questionable Cam is not.  Remember this--Tepper made his money taking risks--that is what hedge funders do. Tepper has inside info on Cam, and he will do his homework.  If he can get 4 years out of him at a high level, he pays the man.  If he knows or suspects he cannot, that will get interesting.

 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

He took a reasonable, team friendly contract the last time, though.

If you're him or his agent and the team comes to you and asks you to do that again, keeping in mind this is in all likelihood your last contract, what would you say?

Brady and Brees have taken reasonable team friendly deals for years. Certainly that may be the exception and not the rule but I don't think that every QB in the league is out to get the maximum money they can. 

 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, MHS831 said:

It is not Cam--it is the going market rate.  If 2000 sq foot homes are selling for $200K in your neighborhood, you don't take $180K. 

Cam is not greedy--never once complained about $$.  The 2015 Cam is worth the going rate---but the questionable Cam is not.  Remember this--Tepper made his money taking risks--that is what hedge funders do. Tepper has inside info on Cam, and he will do his homework.  If he can get 4 years out of him at a high level, he pays the man.  If he knows or suspects he cannot, that will get interesting.

 

And what is risky about keeping him for one more season(based on him being healthy) and seeing if he can go? Is that not a worthwhile risk? What else are you going to do to make the team better than adding Cam Newton with $19.1 mil?

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Brady and Brees have taken reasonable team friendly deals for years. Certainly that may be the exception and not the rule but I don't think that every QB in the league is out to get the maximum money they can. 

 

IMO one of the reasons Peyton Manning only won one SB with Indy is because he always milked that team for every dime he could get.

[Mr. Scot]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Brady and Brees have taken reasonable team friendly deals for years. Certainly that may be the exception and not the rule but I don't think that every QB in the league is out to get the maximum money they can.

They're definitely the exception.

And consider this. Let's suppose Newton takes a lower, team friendly contract with minimal guarantees and gets hurt again (unfortunately, a very real possibility). The team isn't gonna say "well you were cooperative so we'll pay you anyway"; it's gonna be "thanks for everything but... see ya."

My own opinion: I think it's perfectly reasonable for Newton to try and get the best contract and most guaranteed money he can, especially given his health status over the past few seasons.

Unfortunately, I think it's also perfectly reasonable for the Panthers to question whether giving him that kind of contract is a wise decision.

[MHS831]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

And what is risky about keeping him for one more season(based on him being healthy) and seeing if he can go? Is that not a worthwhile risk? What else are you going to do to make the team better than adding Cam Newton with $19.1 mil?

You answered your own question.  $19m for 1 season is risky if you think it might be like the previous 2.  It keeps you from signing a few free agents and delays going after a franchise QB for a season.  An elite QB at $19m is a bargain, and if the decision not to do so is made we should assume there is more to it than we know.  I think they will watch him in the offseason and make the determination.  Neither you nor I know the full story.  On paper, yes, but would you pay him $19m for what he gave us this year?  Last year? 

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

He took a reasonable, team friendly contract the last time, though.

 

2016 QB Contracts:

Joe Flacco 22m/year

2015 QB Contracts :

Newton 20.7m/year

Eli Manning 21m/year

Rivers 20.8m/year

2014 QB Contracts

Andy Dalton 16m/year

 

So no.  Cam Newton did not take a team friendly contract extension.  He took one right in line with the top market value.  It just feels team friendly because it was all the way back in 2015 and 4-5 years of salary caps going up and newer contracts push it down.

Is there an actual real source that Cam Newton will not play without an extension next year?  Not just some person speculating that doesn't have access to actual inside information concerning the issue.  I haven't see anything I would designate as a "source" say as such.

[Mr. Scot]

Igo actually framed it well.

An elite quarterback for 19 million is a bargain.

A quarterback who can't play for 19 million is a disaster.

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

They're definitely the exception.

And consider this. Let's suppose Newton takes a lower, team friendly contract with minimal guarantees and gets hurt again (unfortunately, a very real possibility). The team isn't gonna say "well you were cooperative so we'll pay you anyway"; it's gonna be "thanks for everything but... see ya."

My own opinion: I think it's perfectly reasonable for Newton to try and get the best contract and most guaranteed money he can, especially given his health status over the past few seasons.

Unfortunately, I think it's also perfectly reasonable for the Panthers to question whether giving him that kind of contract is a wise decision.

But you are also painting a scenario that probably will never happen. IMO, the obvious two scenarios are that he returns under contract(which is his $19.1 mil "prove it" deal) or that the decision is made to part ways(mutual or otherwise).

I am not seeing this third scenario you are painting of us signing him to a new contract in the offseason. That ship sailed.

So, that said, let's say he does come back and remain healthy. It's a pretty good bet if he is healthy he will play at a level that warrants a big contract. Now we have a big decision. If we pass, someone else will gladly pay him.

If he comes back and gets reinjured, then his market is probably not markedly smaller than it is now. His talent level and age will still be enough to garner at least one more contract. 

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

But you are also painting a scenario that probably will never happen. IMO, the obvious two scenarios are that he returns under contract(which is his $19.1 mil "prove it" deal) or that the decision is made to part ways(mutual or otherwise).

I am not seeing this third scenario you are painting of us signing him to a new contract in the offseason. That ship sailed.

So, that said, let's say he does come back and remain healthy. It's a pretty good bet if he is healthy he will play at a level that warrants a big contract. Now we have a big decision. If we pass, someone else will gladly pay him.

If he comes back and gets reinjured, then his market is probably not markedly smaller than it is now. His talent level and age will still be enough to garner at least one more contract. 

I'm not painting that scenario. Someone else in the thread did. I explained why it would have a huge potential pitfall.

And I'm sorry but if you think him getting hurt again wouldn't absolutely tank his market value, that's crazy.

His market value right now is based on the idea that the next time he takes the field it will be after having taken a year off to heal. That situation lends to significantly more optimism than "uh oh, he's hurt again".

[kungfoodude]

9 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Igo actually framed it well.

An elite quarterback for 19 million is a bargain.

A quarterback who can't play for 19 million is a disaster.

Not for one year it isn't. As I said, what are you going to do with that money that could make us better as a team than adding Cam Newton? Do you see any reasonable free agent QB's possible for that? Do you see $19.1 mil in upgrades in free agency to overcome our QB situation? 

Is the plan is to burn it all down, you obviously don't keep him but if you aren't planning on going into full rebuild, I am honestly not seeing any OTHER option than rolling with him in 2020. 

Who would we trade for to replace him? Foles? 

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I'm not painting that scenario. Someone else in the thread did. I explained why it would have a huge potential pitfall.

And I'm sorry but if you think him getting hurt again wouldn't absolutely tank his market value, that's crazy.

His market value right now is based on the idea that the next time he takes the field it will be after having taken a year off to heal. That situation lends to significantly more optimism than "uh oh, he's hurt again".

I don't think it would tank it any more unless it was a substantial injury(Achilles, ACL, etc). He has already had three straight years of injuries. If you are interested as a team in him now, you are going to be interested in him next year.

That's one thing I think people are severely overestimating, as well. Even if his shoulder is 100% healthy, the market for him may still be pretty limited. That is a BIG gamble to take if you lay out a market value contract for a guy that hasn't been able to stay healthy.