Free Agents Usually Underpeform their Contracts

[MHS831]

Dwight Hollier, a guy I used to coach with who played with the Dolphins and Colts, told me once, "The secret to sticking in the NFL is to have the ability to play special teams in addition to your position."  I wonder if watching special team film of other teams' free agents is done in search of these "sleepers?"  In other words, build your special teams in free agency with players with upside. 

It is amazingly complicated when you think it should be very simple.

[MHS831]

13 minutes ago, X-Clown said:

You have to be careful with that too though. Very popular opinion after we signed Haruki Nakamura is that the only reason he's not a starter is that he was Ed Reed's back up. Especially applies to the QB position, just look Rob Johnson, AJ McCarron,  Matt Flynn, Matt Cassel..

I know--I guess your list could be a combination of players hidden behind elite players, players released due to salary cap issues, and players reluctantly cut on the last day because there was no way to keep them on the roster. 

I guess we have yet to consider the zodiac signs of the players.  You don't want a Taurus and Aries in the same huddle, that's for sure...

[Iron Saint]

On 2/2/2020 at 2:28 PM, stbugs said:

We could reap a bunch of comp picks if we play the FA game well this year. We have a lot of FAs.

And most of them are on the wrong side of 30 (8 of the 14 eligible UFA's). Not many of them will be heavily pursued by other teams and even fewer will be signed to lucrative enough deals to garner a 2021 compensatory pick.

That also would require you guys to stay put in free agency, only making calculated signings of low cost vets (or released vets) not to offset the potential comp pick to be earned (ie, no splash signings).

Of y'all UFA's, the only ones I think that possibly might sign deals that could result in y'all receiving a 2021 comp pick are Addison (despite being 32), Butler, and maybe Bradberry. The rest of that crop, eesh.

[stbugs]

28 minutes ago, Iron Saint said:

And most of them are on the wrong side of 30 (8 of the 14 eligible UFA's). Not many of them will be heavily pursued by other teams and even fewer will be signed to lucrative enough deals to garner a 2021 compensatory pick.

That also would require you guys to stay put in free agency, only making calculated signings of low cost vets (or released vets) not to offset the potential comp pick to be earned (ie, no splash signings).

Of y'all UFA's, the only ones I think that possibly might sign deals that could result in y'all receiving a 2021 comp pick are Addison (despite being 32), Butler, and maybe Bradberry. The rest of that crop, eesh.

You’d be wrong. Van Roten who I wasn’t even including had an article about getting 8-10M per year. McCoy, Irvin and Boston if they sign elsewhere will also get big enough deals to get low picks. That said 4 picks is the max any team has gotten so I don’t know what will happen. Anyway, I’m pretty up on comp picks and Irvin had 8.5 sacks, Addison had 9.5 sacks, Butler had 6 as a DT and McCoy had 5 as a DT. Boston and Van Roten has solid PFF grades and Bradberry will likely get the best deal of all of our FAs. If we don’t resign any of them, they’d all qualify. For 2020, the projected comp picks were in the $1-2M for 7th rounders. All of these guys will get above that per year, no question. So again y’all wrong. Also, I really don’t see us as FA players until the deadline has passed for FAs to count against comp picks or signing low end FAs to cancel out the bottom 3 of the 7. Again, one of the unwritten rules is a max 4 picks. This also doesn’t include Poe or Wright. Not that I expect them to garner much, but I believe turning down a team option makes them ineligible now.

[Iron Saint]

2 hours ago, stbugs said:

You’d be wrong. Van Roten who I wasn’t even including had an article about getting 8-10M per year. McCoy, Irvin and Boston if they sign elsewhere will also get big enough deals to get low picks. That said 4 picks is the max any team has gotten so I don’t know what will happen. Anyway, I’m pretty up on comp picks and Irvin had 8.5 sacks, Addison had 9.5 sacks, Butler had 6 as a DT and McCoy had 5 as a DT. Boston and Van Roten has solid PFF grades and Bradberry will likely get the best deal of all of our FAs. If we don’t resign any of them, they’d all qualify. For 2020, the projected comp picks were in the $1-2M for 7th rounders. All of these guys will get above that per year, no question. So again y’all wrong. Also, I really don’t see us as FA players until the deadline has passed for FAs to count against comp picks or signing low end FAs to cancel out the bottom 3 of the 7. Again, one of the unwritten rules is a max 4 picks. This also doesn’t include Poe or Wright. Not that I expect them to garner much, but I believe turning down a team option makes them ineligible now.

An article saying he's worth $8-10M/year and him actually getting $8-10M/year are two entirely different stories. If Van Roten is paid $10M/year, that'd put him in the top-10 of the entire league for guards. Even $8M/year puts him in the top-15. Larry Warford signed with us for $8.5M/year when he was 26 and now has 3 Pro Bowls to his name and could command that $10M/year price at 28; Van Roten is 30 and doesn't have any accolades worth that price tag. It'd take a truly desperate team to sign him to a deal like that; luckily for y'all, the Jets may be that desperate but I still wouldn't hold my breath. I'd probably put him around the $5.5M-$6M range if that, which is about the same we signed Nick Easton to last year ($5.625M/year) albeit Easton had slightly less starting experience than Van Roten does, but was also 3 years younger. The best compensatory pick the Vikings could've gotten from his departure was a 6th but according to OverTheCap's compensatory pick prediction guy, but the signing of Shamar Stephen (for only $4.05M APY) cancelled it out.

Irvin is one I'm on the fence about, he has the recent sack production but his age drives his price tag way down. At 31, he signed with y'all for $4M last year after a 6.5 sack season in 2018. His sack numbers and his QB hits both went up slightly, but he also turns 33 halfway through the 2020 season. Additionally he's only playing about half the defensive snaps (55% last year) which is another piece of the criteria used in the compensatory pick formula. While that's really good productivity wise, teams aren't going to want to give a fat contract to an older, situational pass rusher.

McCoy and Boston I don't think will generate much interest as you're speculating.

Boston is on his 3rd team in 3 years (4 teams in 4 years if his first and most recent stints with y'all counts as 2 teams) and while his numbers are staying rather steady regarding INT's and PBU's, there just doesn't seem to be any real interest in his services long-term. After y'all waived him in May 2017, he signed a 1-year, $900K deal with the Chargers. After a season with a career-high 5 INT's in Los Angeles, he remained unsigned through the 1st, 2nd, and even 3rd waves of free agency and signs a 1-year, $1.5M deal with the Cardinals in late-July 2018. Again, he puts up a respectable season stats wise but goes unsigned all through free agency until y'all picked him up in late-July 2019 for 1-year, $2.125M where he goes on to put up another season nearly identical to his 2018 campaign in Arizona. Based on that, I really don't see him getting paid significantly more than what he's been signing for the last few years unless all of a sudden teams just start beating down his door to sign him. However unlike some of y'all other UFA's, he does have age still on his side considering he's about to turn 28.

As for McCoy, while his sack numbers have stayed steady over the last 3 seasons, his QB hits has dropped off a cliff going from 24 to 21 to 13 last year. That's telling me that he's simply not the disruptor he used to be. Now whether that's his age or simply just the scheme was in there, I don't know. But I do know that 4.5 of those sacks came against some abysmal offensive lines:

• Buccaneers (2.5 sacks) - 22nd in sacks allowed, 28th in QB hits allowed
• Packers (0.5 sack) - 12th in sacks allowed, 14th in QB hits allowed
• Falcons (1.0 sack) - 26th in sacks allowed, 31st in QB hits allowed
• Redskins (1.0 sack) - 28th in sacks allowed, 23rd in QB hits allowed

But he may get one last payday on his name alone considering y'all picked him up for $8M APY last year.

While all y'all outgoing UFA's may qualify as potential compensatory picks, at the end of the day there's still only 32 that are handed out so those potential 7th round picks could be null and void if they don't make it within that 32-pick cutoff.

[AceBoogie]

Plenty of players that don’t fall into those two categories. Two more categories that free agents fall into:

Franchise players(hence the franchise tag)

Players with a lot of upside. 

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, Iron Saint said:

An article saying he's worth $8-10M/year and him actually getting $8-10M/year are two entirely different stories. If Van Roten is paid $10M/year, that'd put him in the top-10 of the entire league for guards. Even $8M/year puts him in the top-15. Larry Warford signed with us for $8.5M/year when he was 26 and now has 3 Pro Bowls to his name and could command that $10M/year price at 28; Van Roten is 30 and doesn't have any accolades worth that price tag. It'd take a truly desperate team to sign him to a deal like that; luckily for y'all, the Jets may be that desperate but I still wouldn't hold my breath. I'd probably put him around the $5.5M-$6M range if that, which is about the same we signed Nick Easton to last year ($5.625M/year) albeit Easton had slightly less starting experience than Van Roten does, but was also 3 years younger. The best compensatory pick the Vikings could've gotten from his departure was a 6th but according to OverTheCap's compensatory pick prediction guy, but the signing of Shamar Stephen (for only $4.05M APY) cancelled it out.

Irvin is one I'm on the fence about, he has the recent sack production but his age drives his price tag way down. At 31, he signed with y'all for $4M last year after a 6.5 sack season in 2018. His sack numbers and his QB hits both went up slightly, but he also turns 33 halfway through the 2020 season. Additionally he's only playing about half the defensive snaps (55% last year) which is another piece of the criteria used in the compensatory pick formula. While that's really good productivity wise, teams aren't going to want to give a fat contract to an older, situational pass rusher.

McCoy and Boston I don't think will generate much interest as you're speculating.

Boston is on his 3rd team in 3 years (4 teams in 4 years if his first and most recent stints with y'all counts as 2 teams) and while his numbers are staying rather steady regarding INT's and PBU's, there just doesn't seem to be any real interest in his services long-term. After y'all waived him in May 2017, he signed a 1-year, $900K deal with the Chargers. After a season with a career-high 5 INT's in Los Angeles, he remained unsigned through the 1st, 2nd, and even 3rd waves of free agency and signs a 1-year, $1.5M deal with the Cardinals in late-July 2018. Again, he puts up a respectable season stats wise but goes unsigned all through free agency until y'all picked him up in late-July 2019 for 1-year, $2.125M where he goes on to put up another season nearly identical to his 2018 campaign in Arizona. Based on that, I really don't see him getting paid significantly more than what he's been signing for the last few years unless all of a sudden teams just start beating down his door to sign him. However unlike some of y'all other UFA's, he does have age still on his side considering he's about to turn 28.

As for McCoy, while his sack numbers have stayed steady over the last 3 seasons, his QB hits has dropped off a cliff going from 24 to 21 to 13 last year. That's telling me that he's simply not the disruptor he used to be. Now whether that's his age or simply just the scheme was in there, I don't know. But I do know that 4.5 of those sacks came against some abysmal offensive lines:

• Buccaneers (2.5 sacks) - 22nd in sacks allowed, 28th in QB hits allowed
• Packers (0.5 sack) - 12th in sacks allowed, 14th in QB hits allowed
• Falcons (1.0 sack) - 26th in sacks allowed, 31st in QB hits allowed
• Redskins (1.0 sack) - 28th in sacks allowed, 23rd in QB hits allowed

But he may get one last payday on his name alone considering y'all picked him up for $8M APY last year.

While all y'all outgoing UFA's may qualify as potential compensatory picks, at the end of the day there's still only 32 that are handed out so those potential 7th round picks could be null and void if they don't make it within that 32-pick cutoff.

All that and unless we sign more guys than I think, we’d still get 4 of the top 32. Every year is similar and the bottom of the 32 is less than what our top 4 FAs will get.

Also, Boston with SD was during the Eric Reid period. There was likely some collusion going on there in the safety market. Tyrann Matthieu was the highest paid FA safety in 2018. He got $7M. In 2019, he signed for $14M per year. 7 more safeties signed FA deals in 2019 that were higher than Matthieu got in 2018. Boston’s salary in 2018 had more to do with Reid and keeping the overall market muted.

[Iron Saint]

23 minutes ago, stbugs said:

All that and unless we sign more guys than I think, we’d still get 4 of the top 32. Every year is similar and the bottom of the 32 is less than what our top 4 FAs will get.

Also, Boston with SD was during the Eric Reid period. There was likely some collusion going on there in the safety market. Tyrann Matthieu was the highest paid FA safety in 2018. He got $7M. In 2019, he signed for $14M per year. 7 more safeties signed FA deals in 2019 that were higher than Matthieu got in 2018. Boston’s salary in 2018 had more to do with Reid and keeping the overall market muted.

Perhaps so, but there are quite a few big names that are hitting free agency and likely to be in new uniforms come next season. I'm not sure if y'all guys outside of the ones I named earlier will get anything more than a 6th comp pick.

And don't think so, Mathieu got $7M in 2018 because he's got something Reid and Boston didn't (and still don't) have: a 1st Team All-Pro to his name. He's consistently shown he can be an elite caliber safety in the league, Reid and Boston haven't. But if we're all being honest, outside of Mathieu, that 2018 safety crop that actually hit the open market (and wasn't re-signed/tendered/franchise tagged) left A LOT to be desired. Here's the order they were signed by their new teams:

• Kurt Coleman (3-year, $5.45M APY on March 3rd)
• Cody Davis (2-year, $2.63M APY on March 14th)
• Marcus Gilchrist (1-year, $4M APY on March 15th)
• Tyrann Mathieu (1-year, $7M APY on March 16th)
• Morgan Burnett (3-year, $4.78M APY on March 20th)
• Tre Boston (1-year, $1.5M APY on July 25th)
• Kenny Vaccaro (1-year, $1.5M on August 4th)
• George Iloka (1-year, $880K APY on August 22nd after being released on August 19th)
• Eric Reid (1-year, $1.39M APY on September 27th)
• Mike Mitchell (1-year, $915K APY on October 9th)

We certainly overpaid on Coleman, but seemed to be a panic signing thinking the safeties that were hitting the market were going to "fly off the shelves" much faster than they actually did. Another thing worth noticing is that of these 10 safeties, only 3 got multi-year deals and only one made it to the second year of their deal: Cody Davis. Coleman and Burnett were both released after their first year with their new teams. Looking at that list of available safeties and seeing that the 5 players who got paid more than $2.5M APY all signed towards the beginning of free agency, tells me that those who were signed for less than that all sat around on their hands while the market dried up. Especially considering the 2018 NFL Draft only saw 18 safeties selected, the 3rd fewest safeties selected in a draft in the last decade. 2018 just wasn't a very "safety-needy" season.

But anyways, if Boston's 2017/2018 salary was due to the market being muted because of Reid, why didn't he garner any significant interest last year before y'all signed him? Reid had already gotten paid 5 month earlier or did they start colluding against Boston too?

[MHS831]

Thread officially derailed.

[Mister]

Tell that to the 2015 broncos or the 2017 eagles