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Let's Review, Shall We?

Anybodyhome

By Anybodyhome,
in Carolina Hurricanes

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DavidEng Grand Master

DavidEng

Posted
Posted
On 3/4/2023 at 12:28 AM, Stumpy said:

I've found a chart I'd like to review...

 

Looking at that chart you would think we should be at the top of the heap in scoring. For some reason it doesn’t tell the full story. Canes are #7 in G/GP, and #2 in lowest Goals against average. 

https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/team-stats

Bruins are #2 in G/GP and #1 in lowest GAA.

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DavidEng Grand Master

DavidEng

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Posted
8 hours ago, Stumpy said:

 

Ah, I see what’s wrong with that Moneypuck chart now, it’s just for 5 on 5. Xanes can’t stay out of the box so doesn’t count lol. And no, we aren’t beating the Bruins in Goals per game or in Lowest goals against. See my post above.

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Stumpy Grand Master

Stumpy

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14 minutes ago, DavidEng said:

Ah, I see what’s wrong with that Moneypuck chart now, it’s just for 5 on 5. Xanes can’t stay out of the box so doesn’t count lol. And no, we aren’t beating the Bruins in Goals per game or in Lowest goals against. See my post above.

Expected goals is basically a fancier scoring chance metric.

We produce more scoring opportunities than anyone but FLA and allow far less than the next closest team.

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DavidEng Grand Master

DavidEng

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stumpy said:

Expected goals is basically a fancier scoring chance metric.

We produce more scoring opportunities than anyone but FLA and allow far less than the next closest team.

Gotcha. So if we converted better on those chances we could move ahead of the Bruins in Actual Goals scored. 

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Harbingers Grand Master

Harbingers

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, DavidEng said:

Ah, I see what’s wrong with that Moneypuck chart now, it’s just for 5 on 5. Xanes can’t stay out of the box so doesn’t count lol. And no, we aren’t beating the Bruins in Goals per game or in Lowest goals against. See my post above.

We are still in the same spot in all situations averaged. We are also and it’s crazy to say one(26) of the least penalized teams in the league. Coincidentally we also draw the third least amount of penalties. 
 

Edited by Harbingers
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Harbingers Grand Master

Harbingers

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Posted (edited)

For reference we commit 8.0 penalty minutes a game. We draw 7.9 penalty minutes a game. 
 

Tampa who is #1 in PIM/g, commits 12.2 minutes a game. They are also 13.0 in oPIM/G

The average is 9.2 and 9.2.

So we spend about half a penalty less in the box then the average and 2 less full 2 minutes than Tampa. 
 

Of course when penalties happen is arguably the most important factor but that’s hard to put on a standard stat sheet. 

Edited by Harbingers
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DavidEng Grand Master

DavidEng

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Posted

This spreadsheet on MoneyPuck is interesting to explore. I read up on how they come up with “expected goals” using historical data and other voodoo (lol) and as an engineer wasn’t overly impressed. So I changed it from expected to “Goals” (actual) to see the real data for this season. Also looked at Offensive and Defensive lines separately, regular season  and playoffs for various seasons, and played around with the Maximum Ice Time slider.  You can sort on each header field.

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm

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Harbingers Grand Master

Harbingers

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, DavidEng said:

This spreadsheet on MoneyPuck is interesting to explore. I read up on how they come up with “expected goals” using historical data and other voodoo (lol) and as an engineer wasn’t overly impressed. So I changed it from expected to “Goals” (actual) to see the real data for this season. Also looked at Offensive and Defensive lines separately, regular season  and playoffs for various seasons, and played around with the Maximum Ice Time slider.  You can sort on each header field.

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm

Money puck is fun. I wish they had a version for the NFL. Instead of having to subscribe to one of the stat companies. 

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