Mike Mayock discusses the risk of a 1st round QB....

[SorthNarolina]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/09000d5d816ebbd6/Risk-of-drafting-a-QB

Good video from the only draft guru I really trust. I felt like this is Panthers material instead of draft material since we have the "No 1st round QB" rule.

[CatMan72]

Two hardest positions to draft are QB and WR, so I can understand why a team would avoid spending high draft picks on those positions. Look at the Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf situation, they were considered equals coming out of college and many thought Leaf had an edge because Manning game from a better all-around program.

[monstercat]

All you have to do is look at Matt Moore. How many QB's were drafted the same year he came in as an undrafted FA, that have been more productive than him so far?

Having said that, one guy who I would draft in the 1st round is Christian Ponder. I believe he is gonna be the best of the best in next year's class, and as close to a sure thing as you can get.

[Delhommey]

Ponder's got to show more consistancy before he's considered a first rounder.

[RedMage138]

Ultimately though, it's all risk vs reward. Yes, 1st round QBs carry a high risk but also generally the highest potential. Yes there are the Tom Bradys of the world, but there are also guys like Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan, Flacco, Rodgers, Rivers, both Mannings, and McNaab who are franchise guys.

[monstercat]

Ponder's got to show more consistancy before he's considered a first rounder.

Well if he drops to the 2nd round, that's even better for whoever drafts him. I would love to have him here, regardless of how good Matt Moore turns out to be.

[Brooklyn Bully]

I think it's a risk worth taking, even more so if a rookie cap is ever put in place. The majority of starting Qbs in this league were drafted in the 1-2 rounds. Sure, you can make cases all day, but I'd rather take the gamble than hope you find a diamond in the rough.

[The Link]

Ponder's got to show more consistancy before he's considered a 5th rounder.

Fixed.

[SorthNarolina]

I think it's a risk worth taking, even more so if a rookie cap is ever put in place. The majority of starting Qbs in this league were drafted in the 1-2 rounds. Sure, you can make cases all day, but I'd rather take the gamble than hope you find a diamond in the rough.

the rookie cap will def make a huge difference. Right now the franchise is ruined because you have to wait out the 40 million dollar contract.

[jramsey4]

Its like Mayock was trying to describe basically The Golden Calf of Bristol as far as the intangibles are concerned. I am still of mind to think if he is there in the 3rd we should get him. I just believe his intangibles alone are worth that pick. And at worst you have a wildcat/FB/TE option.

[AnalyzeThIs#28]

It's just like gambling, look at Tom Brady = 6th round pick

[pstall]

I'm sure, or I hope, these teams have some form of a metric built out to show school, height, conference, # of passes thrown in a 3-4 yr window, # of DB's from that conference that go in the first 2 rounds.

If not, I can create it and copyright it and make obscene amounts of money.

Or not.

[MadHatter]

Ultimately though, it's all risk vs reward. Yes, 1st round QBs carry a high risk but also generally the highest potential. Yes there are the Tom Bradys of the world, but there are also guys like Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan, Flacco, Rodgers, Rivers, both Mannings, and McNaab who are franchise guys.

Half of the QB's that you listed have really done nothing yet to say whether they are going to be franchise QB's.

Stafford: Rookie QB who has done nothing

Sanchez: Rookie QB whose team won because of running th ball and D. May be good, but does not warrant high praise yet.

Ryan: good rookie year. Mediocre sophomore year. Jury still out.

Flacco: Has shown improvement. However, his team really wins in spite of him, not because of him. The running game and defense are the reasons the Ravens made the playoffs.

Rodgers/Rivers: playing solid ball. However, both GB has made the playoffs once in the past two years. SD is a perennial one and done in the playoffs.

Not saying that these guys will not be good QB's, but to lump them into Rd 1 successes now is a bit premature.

I will give you Manning and McNabb. However, there are still more 1st and 2nd round QB busts than successes.

[Brandon]

Don't forget about Roethlisberger on that list of first rounders. As much of a risk as it is, the first round is the only place to really find a starting QB.