Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Lombardi on McAfee Show

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

 Share

Recommended Posts

MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
  • Author
Posted

The depth chart tells you all you need to know (about what a team is going to do).

Basically says the players we think are first rounders don't matter--what player does the team think they can get the most out of--(inference:  upside and match for the system)

Noted that WRs are the toughest to evaluate--said the best WRs in the NFL are second and third day (or round) players.  Note that first round WRs hit 27% of the time. (Chart below). 

Based on our needs and the fact that we cannot afford to miss, drafting WRs early is dangerous.  It seems to me that Pearsall, Rice, McCaffery, and maybe even Dez Walker might be better risks--according to this logic.

I found this to be interesting:  (Makes me want to draft C at 33. 

image.png.cc6edd2df2f132456f5c408f5e0b58de.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

Based on our needs and the fact that we cannot afford to miss, drafting WRs early is dangerous.  

well, we know generally.....we are going to end up missing on most of the guys we draft in reality.  Draft history says that.  Ours certainly does.  That's why I like the WR double dip in a great WR draft class.  Increases your odds of hitting on something that eventually works out. 

and we don't have a first day pick.  as he said, day 2 and day 3 is often WR gold.  I still think top of round 2 is just a sweet spot for WR. 

I think those hit rates are skewed.  C has a good first round hit rate.....because you rarely see any C ever drafted in the first round because of  how the league values it.   So it's almost can't miss super studs twisting folks arms to have to take them. 

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, CRA said:

well, we know generally.....we are going to end up missing on most of the guys we draft in reality.  Draft history says that.  Ours certainly does.  That's why I like the WR double dip in a great WR draft class.  Increases your odds of hitting on something that eventually works out. 

and we don't have a first day pick.  as he said, day 2 and day 3 is often WR gold.  I still think top of round 2 is just a sweet spot for WR. 

I think those hit rates are skewed.  C has a good first round hit rate.....because you rarely see any C ever drafted in the first round because of  how the league values it.   So it's almost can't miss super studs twisting folks arms to have to take them. 

Same page--I wonder (to his point) if Walker, Rice, and Pearsall don't outperform the first round bunch (excluding the three Amigo WRs Rome, Harrison, and Nabors).   I feel like they are going to draft a CB/LB early and we should double dip at WR--but what if you took Rice and McCaffery, for example, instead of Worthy and McCorley?  If we take Worthy and McCorley, we miss out on the LB/CBs.  If we take LB, OL, CB early and take advantage of the draft by understanding that rounds 3 and 4 have some guys who might be better fits into our system?  That is the Twist I got from this video. 

This is going to be very interesting. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tr3ach Grand Master

Tr3ach

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

The depth chart tells you all you need to know (about what a team is going to do).

Basically says the players we think are first rounders don't matter--what player does the team think they can get the most out of--(inference:  upside and match for the system)

Noted that WRs are the toughest to evaluate--said the best WRs in the NFL are second and third day (or round) players.  Note that first round WRs hit 27% of the time. (Chart below). 

Based on our needs and the fact that we cannot afford to miss, drafting WRs early is dangerous.  It seems to me that Pearsall, Rice, McCaffery, and maybe even Dez Walker might be better risks--according to this logic.

I found this to be interesting:  (Makes me want to draft C at 33. 

image.png.cc6edd2df2f132456f5c408f5e0b58de.png

Ive seen that chart a lot of places but i dont really think it tells us anything without seeing the percentages for round 2 at least, if not more rounds.  I know the hardest posistion to hit in the 2nd round or later is edge rushers.  Almost all the good ones are drafted in the first.  2nd round and later edge rushers dont have a good track record at all.

Edited by Tr3ach
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Same page--I wonder (to his point) if Walker, Rice, and Pearsall don't outperform the first round bunch (excluding the three Amigo WRs Rome, Harrison, and Nabors).   I feel like they are going to draft a CB/LB early and we should double dip at WR--but what if you took Rice and McCaffery, for example, instead of Worthy and McCorley?  If we take Worthy and McCorley, we miss out on the LB/CBs.  If we take LB, OL, CB early and take advantage of the draft by understanding that rounds 3 and 4 have some guys who might be better fits into our system?  That is the Twist I got from this video. 

This is going to be very interesting. 

yeah, all I know is occasionally I guess the first round pick right for us.   Outside of that, I might of guessed 2 out of hundred other picks. 

my surprise guess at this point, is Morgan shows his personal touch in this draft and valuing a position in way we didn't think of.  So my guess on that is a DT is going to pop up at a spot no one saw coming.   Everyone talking Edge, LB, and CB.  They always seem to surprise us somewhere. 

  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
  • Author
Posted

After watching the 360 program on NFL Network (I think), I am emotionally drawn to drafting UNC's Walker.  Here is why:  He has the tools.  His critics complain about his route running.  After all he'd been through, I wonder if he ever really had a coach work on mechanics.  Canales wants the staff to be developmental.  Walker would appreciate being in Charlotte for his grandma--think that is a small deal?  Watch the video.  We may be the team best equipped to maximize his potential.  Not in the second round, but the third?  Add what Lomabardi said about the best WRs in the NFL not being from the first round--Walker could be a steal in the third.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Bear Hands
      So is Legette getting traded?

      By Bear Hands · Posted

      Can't keep pining for what never happened....but for god sakes, DeJean, Frazier... and we got this dude in a R1 trade up.  The most notable blunder of this era, that's for sure. 
    • WestPanthers
      a tip of the cap to the Special Juan

      By WestPanthers · Posted

      Thanks !
    • Bear Hands
      That's it. How do you feel about this draft class.

      By Bear Hands · Posted

      Overall, fine.  Wish we landed a guy to pair with Lloyd but I presume this means they're giving Trevin one final year to put it together (72nd overall 2 years back).  Flashed potential year 1, had a dud last year.   R1: Freeling LT - Great value and a need; landed our new long term LT that could end up starting off the bat.  Icky had a terrible injury and is not playing in his contract year.  Walker is what he is on a 1-year rental, who even knows how he fits. You get premier OTs early if you can find em' and he has what you want.  I thought he could have gone as high as 6/CLE pre-draft, so am a big fan of the selection.  Looking at this class, he's one of the guys at the top that is like "okay that's the LT".  Others have this right/left or G/T type discussion about them.  Freeling is an LT.   R2: Hunter NT - We didn't really have anyone replacing A'Shawn's snaps in our rotation.  Wharton & Brown aren't 3 downers so adding Hunter to the mix fills a big void. I dug deep into S and LB this draft so was a bit to zeroed in - In recognize the value and impact add in the trenches. R3: Brazzell WR - Intriguing.  Given our history, I don't really want to place any expectations here, but a different style weapon for Bryce. I pretty much expect a WR drafted yearly with this regime. Other notables.. Hecht C - These are the type of rounds where starting centers have been found.  We got a starter for this year, but Hecht seems pretty capable and I like it for a long term find.  SOLID AF.  Wheatley S - A pretty well regarded safety prospect.  And we see it every year (like this one) safeties get hyped, people think they may go sooner than expected, and the league reminds them how it rolls.  Plenty of nice safeties have been found in the 4th-6th in recent years.  Big fan of Wheatley. Can't say I know enough about Lee or the others. 
×
×
  • Create New...