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A look back at preseason predictions

kungfoodude

By kungfoodude,
in Carolina Panthers

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CRA Grand Master

CRA

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34 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It's not a permanent assignment. Where we stand we cannot be picky about what type receivers we are looking for.

Every WR is going to fit teams and schemes different IMO. Which has basically been my argument/view for some time.   Nothing really fits together that well.  Plan/vision hasn’t been here.  So much of success is about fit and where you go.   Think that involves a version of pickiness.  Not just expecting anyone can do anything. 


Who knows.  These dudes should just make me GM.  I’d sign PJ Walker, I’d play WR and we could all be happy, 

 

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Jon Snow Grand Master

Jon Snow

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1 minute ago, CRA said:

Every WR is going to fit teams and schemes different IMO. Which has basically been my argument/view for some time.   Nothing really fits together that well.  Plan/vision hasn’t been here.  So much of success is about fit and where you go.   Think that involves a version of pickiness.  Not just expecting anyone can do anything. 


Who knows.  These dudes should just make me GM.  I’d sign PJ Walker, I’d play WR and we could all be happy, 

 

We are not your typical team to where we have the right talent to fit every spot. We have a group of misfit toys and most are beyond broken repair or never worked to begin with. We need more of everything in either starters, backups or both at nearly 70% of this roster. That light someone saw is further away that it appears. 

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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16 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

Yeah at this point in his career AT is almost strictly a slot. Slot is also the best spot for Ladd. We drafted XL because our coach wanted a X WR to play that Mike Evans role. Ladd wasn’t that guy. 

This. This. This.

I know folks are wringing their hands over Ladd being taken after XL and having a better fantasy season, but they're two entirely different receivers.

It came down to taking a WR that's going to be in the same spot as the best WR on the team's roster, or taking a big guy with speed and fill that missing spot.

Their usage this season even attests to that:

  • XL
    Snaps lined up in the slot: 167
    Snaps lined up out wide: 483
    Returns: 77
     
  • McConkey
    Snaps lined up in the slot: 454
    Snaps lined up out wide: 222
    Returns: 18
Edited by Icege
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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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16 hours ago, jayboogieman said:

This is just sad and shows how poorly the team has drafted and hit on free agents under Tepper. They really need to forget RAS and go after productive college players.

It's not solely production, it's about fit in the NFL. That takes into account college production, underwear Olympics measurables and also makeup of the player. It's hyperfocusing on any individual element(like RAS) of a player evaluation that creates so many dud picks.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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4 minutes ago, Icege said:

This. This. This.

I know folks are wringing their hands over Ladd being taken after XL and having a better fantasy season, but they're two entirely different receivers.

It came down to taking a WR that's going to be in the same spot as the best WR on the team's roster, or taking a big guy with speed and fill that missing spot.

Their usage this season even attests to that:

  • XL
    Snaps lined up in the slot: 167
    Snaps lined up out wide: 483
    Returns: 77
     
  • McConkey
    Snaps lined up in the slot: 454
    Snaps lined up out wide: 222
    Returns: 18

And that's cool but the biggest overall difference between them(it was at the time and it is now) is that one is a productive and effective NFL caliber WR and the other is not. 

Largely, the goal of an NFL draft is to get a guy that can play. Certainly scheme and fit play heavily into that but ultimately you need an NFL caliber guy. Ladd is/was that and XL is/was not.

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

And that's cool but the biggest overall difference between them(it was at the time and it is now) is that one is a productive and effective NFL caliber WR and the other is not. 

Largely, the goal of an NFL draft is to get a guy that can play. Certainly scheme and fit play heavily into that but ultimately you need an NFL caliber guy. Ladd is/was that and XL is/was not.

I think this is less of an XL can't play issue and more of a situation issue.

WR4 on Ladd's team is THE DJ Chark, whom XL is replacing as WR1. Ladd's also been lined up predominantly in the slot where Thielen is, which to me means it makes more sense to compare McConkey to AT.

What's the point of drafting a guy that's not going to get snaps because there's already another guy that does that well? Why not take a guy to fill one of the other spots and develop them?

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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6 minutes ago, Icege said:

I think this is less of an XL can't play issue and more of a situation issue.

WR4 on Ladd's team is THE DJ Chark, whom XL is replacing as WR1. Ladd's also been lined up predominantly in the slot where Thielen is, which to me means it makes more sense to compare McConkey to AT.

What's the point of drafting a guy that's not going to get snaps because there's already another guy that does that well? Why not take a guy to fill one of the other spots and develop them?

Right but this is also a situation where David Moore is getting snaps and we had to elevate Coker to the active roster. If you have a guy that can get open and catch the ball, you will find a role for him.

That is the fundamental difference. It was not role/scheme/etc that doomed guys like TMJ/Mingo/Funchess/etc, it was the fact that they were not capable players. 

My point isn't that Ladd fills XL's spot. That's not really even an argument because there are ample amounts of unemployed or PS players that can fill XL's role as ineffectively as they have. My point is that in a modern NFL offense, you can't have ENOUGH guys that make plays. The easy part is finding the snaps, the hard part is finding the players.

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Right but this is also a situation where David Moore is getting snaps and we had to elevate Coker to the active roster. If you have a guy that can get open and catch the ball, you will find a role for him.

That is the fundamental difference. It was not role/scheme/etc that doomed guys like TMJ/Mingo/Funchess/etc, it was the fact that they were not capable players. 

My point isn't that Ladd fills XL's spot. That's not really even an argument because there are ample amounts of unemployed or PS players that can fill XL's role as ineffectively as they have. My point is that in a modern NFL offense, you can't have ENOUGH guys that make plays. The easy part is finding the snaps, the hard part is finding the players.

I don't necessarily agree with this because if the Panthers are marching AT, Ladd, and Coker out there then we get to see teams play closer to the line like last season. Having two, arguably three (depending on who you're talking to) slot guys on the field to me invites defenses to creep up to the LOS like they did last year. Who's going to be the guy that has to be respected deep and draw a safety?

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Jon Snow Grand Master

Jon Snow

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3 minutes ago, Icege said:

I don't necessarily agree with this because if the Panthers are marching AT, Ladd, and Coker out there then we get to see teams play closer to the line like last season. Having two, arguably three (depending on who you're talking to) slot guys on the field to me invites defenses to creep up to the LOS like they did last year. Who's going to be the guy that has to be respected deep and draw a safety?

Who's that guy now?

Edited by Jon Snow
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CRA Grand Master

CRA

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30 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

And that's cool but the biggest overall difference between them(it was at the time and it is now) is that one is a productive and effective NFL caliber WR and the other is not. 

Largely, the goal of an NFL draft is to get a guy that can play. Certainly scheme and fit play heavily into that but ultimately you need an NFL caliber guy. Ladd is/was that and XL is/was not.

Ladd would not be Ladd lined up on the outside all game.  He is effective because he is played to his strength.  Ladd and AT would be competing for the same rep.   XL had the potential to give us the biggest ceiling..... because you can let AT be AT and leave him alone. 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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4 minutes ago, Icege said:

I don't necessarily agree with this because if the Panthers are marching AT, Ladd, and Coker out there then we get to see teams play closer to the line like last season. Having two, arguably three (depending on who you're talking to) slot guys on the field to me invites defenses to creep up to the LOS like they did last year. Who's going to be the guy that has to be respected deep and draw a safety?

Yeah we don't have that guy now. Especially once Johnson was jettisoned. 

Go look at the games, XL is rarely drawing a double. 

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Icege Grand Master

Icege

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Just now, kungfoodude said:

Yeah we don't have that guy now. Especially once Johnson was jettisoned. 

Go look at the games, XL is rarely drawing a double. 

Yea, but he's also beating his guy on plays where the ball isn't going to him. His route running is so improved from last year at South Carolina that it's got me downright giddy to see what he adds to his toolbelt this offseason. 😄

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Jon Snow Grand Master

Jon Snow

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4 minutes ago, Icege said:

Yea, but he's also beating his guy on plays where the ball isn't going to him. His route running is so improved from last year at South Carolina that it's got me downright giddy to see what he adds to his toolbelt this offseason. 😄

If he doesn't start catching the ball he's headed down the road TMJ was on. He's already been phased out except for the last game where they forced it to him.

I was watching the game with my son and his girlfriend who is not a football fan. She asked several times why they keep throwing the ball to 17 when he keeps dropping it. I said I would like to know the answer to that myself. 

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