The curse of the #1 draft pick.

[PantherBrew]

I found this article pretty interesting.

However, it doesn't mention the future rookie pay scale.

So what should a team do if it's blessed (which is to say, cursed) with a top pick? Trade it, as the Chargers learned to do. Drafting number 10 and number 11 instead of number 1 is a much better proposition. With two draws, the chance of having at least one of the two picks succeed is much higher, and the cost is the same or less. Factor in the potential for injuries and off-the-field trouble, and it becomes even more apparent that having two chances to find a future starter is a much better proposition than having only one. Also, the team avoids the potential of a colossal public bust like Leaf. Even if the later picks flop, fans won't care nearly as much as they do when the top pick is a bust.

This would be a nice, scenario, but unlikely.

To their credit, the Chargers learned from their costly mistake. In 2000 they finished 1-15 and were "rewarded" with the top pick in the 2001 NFL draft. They traded the pick to Atlanta for the Falcons' number five pick as well as a third-round pick in '01, a second- round pick in '02 and Tim Dwight, a wide receiver and kick-return specialist. The Falcons used the top pick to select Michael Vick; the Chargers used that fifth selection on LaDainian Tomlinson, who would become the most decorated running back of his generation. To satisfy their quarterback needs, the Chargers waited until the first pick of the second round and tapped Drew Brees, who would go on to become the 2010 Super Bowl MVP, albeit for Saints. Remember, too, the Chargers gave up Eli Manning in 2004 for Philip Rivers and the right to choose Shawne Merriman.

Teams know these things though, and know the risks involved with the #1.

I am hoping Cam Newton really wows at the Combine, maybe a team will fall in love with him like the Falcon's did with Vick.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/the_bonus/01/13/sportscasting.excerpt/index.html#ixzz1B1LLJzaU

[CatMan72]

Yup, it seems to me that trading down is the best scenario at this point.

[Lout]

Trading down would be ideal, but it won't happen.

[bleys]

there is always a curse put on something...

[grateflday]

Two things need to happen to make trading down possible:

1) New CBA with rookie scale effective this year.

2) A player like Cam Newton, or other position to light it up at the combines and other workout. In addition for them to be pumped up greatly by the hype machine.

If the above happens trading out of #1 will be easier.