Surprise Pick?

[Catalyst]

The more I think about it, the more I half expect Hurney to just completely surprise us all and take someone most of us aren't even discussing. Someone like Robert Quinn, Prince Amakumara, Marcel Dareus, Jake Locker, or Blaine Gabbert.

In most cases the 1st pick is basically known well ahead of time because there's either an obvious player to pick or because the team begins negotiating with the player beforehand. This year not only is there not an obvious top pick, but the CBA situation means no picks will be signed until AFTER the draft.

We could literally go into draft day with NO CLUE who we're taking. And in that scenario I think we could all be thrown a HUGE curveball when the pick is announced. We've done it before several times:

2005: Took Thomas Davis when NOBODY had us taking a LB (every mock had us going OT or WR) and even then the best linebacker on the board according to basically everyone was Derrick Johnson. Instead, we took Thomas Davis. An out of the blue pick.

2006: Most everyone had us taking LenDale White in the 1st round because he was the best power back in the draft. Instead, we went with the same position, but with the player who we felt was better in Williams. Might something similar happen with Patrick Peterson/Prince Amakumara?

2007: Who had us taking a LB? We BADLY needed a safety and a TE, but our BPA was Beason, even though most analysts had him rated as a high-mid 2nd rounder. Later that day we took Ryan Kalil even though nobody thought we needed a center because we had Justin Hartwig.

2008: We had Beason in the middle, Davis on the outside, and Diggs playing well and instead of going for a WR or OG which would've fit our needs better, we took the BPA in Dan Connor.

2009: We had the best RB tandem in the game and spent an early 4th rounder (almost a late 3rd rounder, really) on Mike Goodson.

I'm just saying here, folks, we're a long way out and Hurney has shown a tendency to go against the grain and common perception with his picks. Now, picking this high is different than usual, but it's also an unusually close draft class as far as overall talent is concerned. Hurney might look at Da'Quan Bowers and say 'you know what? I like this Quinn kid better.' or feel like Prince Amakumara is a better fit for our defense than Peterson at CB.

Or maybe our new QB coach starts raving about how he thinks he can turn Gabbert or Locker or Mallett into a superstar and Hurney becomes convinced and we take our franchise QB a year early.

And then there's always the possibility that in the 3 months between now and the draft some player shoots up draft boards with a strong performance in the senior bowl and/or combine and pro day workouts and joins Fairley/Green/Bowers as a legit 1st overall contender.

[DaveThePanther2008]

This draft will be crucial to Rivera. Though Hurney is the one who pulls the trigger you can bet Rivera will have some input. The safest bet is to go for someone from your side of the ball. In Rivera's case that is defensive so That is why IMO Fairley will be our pick.

[Catalyst]

I get that, but what I'm saying is what if we go defense, just not with the player everyone expects? We need a DT, but what if they choose Marcel Dareus out of the blue? That's what I'm talking about here.

Draft rankings and actual team boards are NOT always the same. In fact, they're almost always pretty radically different from one another.

[DaveThePanther2008]

I agree to a point but we have never gone out on a huge limb like say NYJ or Buffalo on their draft choices. I do believe we will narrow it down once the Combines are done.

[Catalyst]

The more I think about it, the more I can legitimately see us falling in love with one of the QB's and taking them with the 1st pick...

[MHS831]

At least you can say that no Luck makes it interesting. I look at it this way: We have 3 needs on defense, one pressing need. The draft is deep at that need, DT. On offense we have 3 needs, the most pressing is QB. However

no QB in this draft is worthy of a first round selection. THAT IS RIGHT---FIRST ROUND. There is a desperate need for QBs so teams will roll the dice on them. The Owner has already said the offense is going to be more explosive in 2011. If you can't find a QB in the draft better than what you have, build the supporting cast and give what you have weapons.

There are a few QBs entering free agency who will look at Carolina as a place to possibly start. I am convinced that supporting cast and the system has as much to do with success as the player.

[DaveThePanther2008]

At least you can say that no Luck makes it interesting. I look at it this way: We have 3 needs on defense, one pressing need. The draft is deep at that need, DT. On offense we have 3 needs, the most pressing is QB. However

no QB in this draft is worthy of a first round selection. THAT IS RIGHT---FIRST ROUND. There is a desperate need for QBs so teams will roll the dice on them. The Owner has already said the offense is going to be more explosive in 2011. If you can't find a QB in the draft better than what you have, build the supporting cast and give what you have weapons.

There are a few QBs entering free agency who will look at Carolina as a place to possibly start. I am convinced that supporting cast and the system has as much to do with success as the player.

I think the FA market on QB is the best way to go. Gives Rivera time to evaluate Clausen and if he fails then we have a veteran ready to step in and still give us an opportunity to make a playoff push.

[MHS831]

I posted somewhere else that I thought the Panthers would choose the less glamourous players at need positions early in the first round. Here is my thinking:

Quinn over Bowers: After the combine, teams will be drooling over both players. However, Quinn has run a 4.4 and will draw a lot of interest from 3-4 teams needing a pass-rushing OLB--they are gold. Bowers is a specimen at 280 lbs, but he has some bad tape and his motor is questioned. I don't see us drafting a DE with so many top players available at need positions, but Quinn could rocket up boards after the combine. Both players could be 1-2, giving the Panthers the opportunity to field trade offers.

Prince over Peterson: Peterson is bigger and more athletic. Why would anyone take Amakamara? Part of Peterson's appeal is his return abilities, but his size (220 lbs) might make him a better fit at safety. I doubt he returns punts for long due to injury risk, so his value would decrease. I would not draft a safety this high. Prince is very good and might be better in coverage.

Dareus over Fairley: If the Panthers go DT, this is a reason they would trade down. Fairley's stock is tremendously high right now. He was high profile most of the season. His stats are better than Dareus's. Fairley has a tremendously quick first step, great hands, and sniffs out screens well, so he is instinctive. However, he rarely took on double teams--he shot gaps. The Panthers really need a 2 gap 1 technique who will take on 2 linemen so the LBs and DEs can make plays. Fairley is a better pass rusher for this reason, but Dareus is more versatile, playing the run as well as the pass. Fairley played his best games vs. Spread offenses, not pro sets.

Gabbert over Newton:I don't see either going to Carolina so it is a mute point, but both men have the tools. Do they have the work ethic? Both are projects, with mechanical problems that will need time to correct. Both are overvalued. Why Gabbert? Because he would be easier to sign, has a better record of character, and is probably more coachable in relation to ego and intelligence. He has had to rely on his arm more than his athletic ability. It is hard to abandon instincts that have been reinforeced with success througout his career.

Green over everyone: Jones is the second-closest WR, but his hands are suspect. We don't need any more dropped passes. Give me a 6-4, 215 lb. 4.45 running leaping athlete who catches everything he touches--any day of the week.

[DaveThePanther2008]

No arguments here. I personally would like to see us trade down but unless someone really shines in the Combine I don't really see any team wanting to trade up.

[JawnyBlaze]

Good write up, MHS. I agree with your points.