PFF ranks the 2025 starting QBs

[frankw]

23 minutes ago, Icege said:

Just to clarify: I'm not arguing that height or footwork can't affect QB play. I'm asking how those concerns translate into measurable, consistent outcomes. That’s the standard we should be applying to all QBs, not just Bryce. If height is such a limitation, then we'd expect to see elevated batted passes or poor pressure evasion. Yet none of that shows up in the data. Bryce was one of the lowest in the league for batted passes and his 16.9 pressure-to-sack ratio is good enough for 9th out of all QBs with 300+ dropbacks. So if you believe footwork tied to height is a meaningful issue, what metric shows that because two that would aren't doing so? This isn't about denying flaws. It's about applying fair, consistent standards because otherwise we're not evaluating performance which means that it's not analysis taking place... it's just going off of the vibes that somebody has consciously decided on.

Citing one red zone play you remember doesn't provide that consistent standard. I don't say that to dismiss your memory, but to emphasize that anecdotal evidence (especially from an avowed skeptic) shouldn’t carry more weight than consistent tape or analytics. For example, there was recently dissonance over Bryce's deep ball accuracy where it was implied that he was inaccurate throwing 20+ yards. Yet, the data and film show otherwise.

And I unfortunately have to still ask since you won't directly answer: What specific metrics do you believe matter when evaluating whether a QB is top-10? You've mentioned YPA and passing yards per game, and that's fair. If that's what you're prioritizing, then let's call that your criteria but clarity matters because it prevents moving goalposts when the data doesn't match one's expectations.

I appreciate the response and hope that your holiday weekend goes well also.

His footwork has been discussed many times over related to not just within the pocket but the quality of his drop backs and how while his receivers have been an issue his own footwork has created issues with his receivers. It is a mutual give and take dynamic after all.

As far as his deep passing goes I will happily admit I saw some very impressive long throws from Bryce later in the season and I said so at the time and I'm still saying so now. That doesn't mean that there still aren't issues and beyond some instances of him flat out missing receivers deep that he knows he needs to get corrected I think there are still some throws to the sideline that defenses are going to test Bryce on early and often and until he can prove he can beat defenses on those throws consistently they will play him the same way.

As far as talk of Bryce being top ten and the metrics that define that different people are going to have different answers and I've said before after the conclusion of the 2024 season that I'm going to try to put yardage aside in some cases and just focus on what Bryce is doing both between the 20's moving the ball and how our redzone scoring percentage is looking. The biggest thing I'm looking for this season is scoring points. Not just field goals. Touchdowns. If the offense is moving consistently and reaching the end zone more often than not and not squandering drives and settling for field goals then I am going to be content for the time being. I do not expect miracles this season. I expect development and competiveness on both sides of the ball but particularly the offense trending upward given the investments we've made. And no blowout losses. I don't think that's an unreasonable ask do you agree?

🫡

Edited 4 hours ago by frankw

[mrcompletely11]

46 minutes ago, NAS said:

He had games where he was a top 10 QB that week, vs Saints, Falcons, Eagles, Chiefs, Bucs.  Amazing performances that I think show what he can do consistently.  He must play with confidence to overcome physical limitations where someone like Cam can struggle all game and then win the game at the end by running someone over. Bryce won’t be that and I am fine with it, it’s time for us to move on to the new era. It’s been 5 long years.

Bryce had 191 yards 55% completion 1 td 1 pick.  That's an amazing performance?   Come on people

[frankw]

12 minutes ago, WUnderhill said:

Bryce Young is far less risky with his body when he runs than Richardson and doesn’t take many unnecessary big hits. Was much more worried about injury when he had that abysmal OL his rookie season than I ever would be when he runs/scrambles. 500/10 seems like a fairly reasonable prediction considering he had 250/6 in 12 starts last season. Of course literally anybody CAN get hurt, it’s just that we were assured by many huddlers that it was a sure thing with Bryce Young that he wouldn’t make it to this point in his career without significant injuries.

I'm not saying it shouldn't be a part of his game it should be present yes. But expecting 500/10 in the rushing category is not sustainable IMO. All it's going to take is a defender to be willing to sacrifice a penalty or a fine to send a message just as the Falcons did with Sam Darnold. And even as big and durable as Cam was defenses eventually started to try to send a message to him too. We have to be realistic about not putting our QB at unnecessary risk. Especially given the fact we aren't even willing to run a QB sneak with him. We've also invested a good bit in our backfield that's what they're there for. And furthermore ultimately whatever QB  tier Bryce Young ends up landing in over the course of his career it is going to be defined by what he does as a passer not his rushing ability. That's all I'm saying.

[kungfoodude]

11 minutes ago, NAS said:

He had games where he was a top 10 QB that week, vs Saints, Falcons, Eagles, Chiefs, Bucs.  Amazing performances that I think show what he can do consistently.  He must play with confidence to overcome physical limitations where someone like Cam can struggle all game and then win the game at the end by running someone over. Bryce won’t be that and I am fine with it, it’s time for us to move on to the new era. It’s been 5 long years.

I think "amazing" is basically relating to his prior performances, which is a very low bar. Even at his peak(so far), he hasn't consistently been an elite performer either by the simple eye test nor statistically.

Regardless, we have seen the flashes of WHY we drafted him #1 overall and he is visibility significantly more confident.

Hopefully he has spent an inordinate amount of time this offseason getting that footwork better and more consistent. That's going to be a massive factor in his continuing improvement.

[Icege]

4 minutes ago, frankw said:

His footwork has been discussed many times over related to not just within the pocket but the quality of his drop backs and how while his receivers have been an issue his own footwork has created issues with his receivers. It is a mutual give and take dynamic after all.

As far as his deep passing goes I will happily admit I saw some very impressive long throws from Bryce later in the season and I said so at the time and I'm still saying so now. That doesn't mean that there still aren't issues and beyond some instances of him flat out missing receivers deep that he knows he needs to get corrected I think there are still some throws to the sideline that defenses are going to test Bryce on early and often and until he can prove he can beat defenses on those throws consistently they will play him the same way.

As far as talk of Bryce being top ten and the metrics that define that different people are going to have different answers and I've said before after the conclusion of the 2024 season that I'm going to try to put yardage aside in some cases and just focus on what Bryce is doing both between the 20's moving the ball and how our redzone scoring percentage is looking. The biggest thing I'm looking for this season is scoring points. Not just field goals. Touchdowns. If the offense is moving consistently and reaching the end zone more often than not and not squandering drives and settling for field goals then I am going to be content for the time being. I do not expect miracles this season. I expect development competiveness and both sides of the ball particularly the offensive given the investments we've made trending upward. And no blowout losses. I don't think that's an unreasonable ask do you agree?

🫡

His footwork has been discussed at length, just like Cam's was--no argument from me there. What I'm asking for is a statistical indicator that supports the idea that Bryce's footwork is creating meaningful issues. With Cam, we could clearly correlate occasional high passes to footwork problems. With Bryce, there are occasional misfires as well, but we aren't seeing it surface with the frequency of severity you'd expect if it were such a persistent issue. That's why when concerns about his footwork and height are paired together, there should be some measurable statistical impact. That's what I keep coming back to.

That same inconsistency shows up in the deep ball critique. Saying "he misses guys outright" suggests he either isn't seeing them or can't hit them downfield... yet, as we've already seen, he was top-10 in catchable passes over 20+ yards. If accuracy were truly the issue, it should reflect in the data. It's also worth pointing out that deep-ball concerns largely became the next talking point after he made it through the season without the durability disaster some were predicting (despite being sacked for what was then the second-most times ever for a rookie QB). As for those sideline throws you mentioned: what specific throws are you referring to? If you can identify them, I'd be happy to pull up the PFF premium grades or grab All-22 clips from NFL Pro to look at those sequences and assess how real that concern is. For my part, I'd actually like to see improvement in the intermediate game. That was a strength his rookie year, but he seemed to trade it for a stronger deep game this past season. Could that shift relate to height and footwork? Maybe! But again... we'd need data or film trends to verify that rather than assume it.

On the "top-10" classification front: I know that it's a moving target for most people. That's why I've been asking for specifics. Without a shared definition, it's hard to engage meaningfully. So with you moving away from raw yardage, does that mean your preferred KPIs are now height, weight, red zone efficiency, and point differential? If so, that's totally fine (just being clear about it helps). That said... red zone success and point differential depend heavily on OL play, WR execution, coaching decisions, defense (for point differential), etc. They're influenced by the QB but not exclusively determined by him... which, like passing yards, makes them more difficult to isolate for analysis of Bryce's performance.

[tukafan21]

3 hours ago, NAS said:

Cam regularly threw for less than 200 yards and nobody questioned he was elite. He averaged 219 yds per game for his career.  You seem to be way too hung up on yards as a stat.  By that definition Jameis Winston should have been MVP by now. 

And we all know Cam also struggled as a passer at times, but he MORE than made up for it with what he brought to the running game.

In one of my posts I also mentioned how if he was putting up Lamar like 75+ yards rushing on a weekly basis that it changes how to view the lower passing yardages.

Cam might not have been averaging 75 yards a game, but he had more than a good amount of rushing yards and also holds the record for most rushing TDs by a QB in NFL history.

[tukafan21]

50 minutes ago, Icege said:

His footwork has been discussed at length, just like Cam's was--no argument from me there. What I'm asking for is a statistical indicator that supports the idea that Bryce's footwork is creating meaningful issues. With Cam, we could clearly correlate occasional high passes to footwork problems. With Bryce, there are occasional misfires as well, but we aren't seeing it surface with the frequency of severity you'd expect if it were such a persistent issue. That's why when concerns about his footwork and height are paired together, there should be some measurable statistical impact. That's what I keep coming back to.

That same inconsistency shows up in the deep ball critique. Saying "he misses guys outright" suggests he either isn't seeing them or can't hit them downfield... yet, as we've already seen, he was top-10 in catchable passes over 20+ yards. If accuracy were truly the issue, it should reflect in the data. It's also worth pointing out that deep-ball concerns largely became the next talking point after he made it through the season without the durability disaster some were predicting (despite being sacked for what was then the second-most times ever for a rookie QB). As for those sideline throws you mentioned: what specific throws are you referring to? If you can identify them, I'd be happy to pull up the PFF premium grades or grab All-22 clips from NFL Pro to look at those sequences and assess how real that concern is. For my part, I'd actually like to see improvement in the intermediate game. That was a strength his rookie year, but he seemed to trade it for a stronger deep game this past season. Could that shift relate to height and footwork? Maybe! But again... we'd need data or film trends to verify that rather than assume it.

On the "top-10" classification front: I know that it's a moving target for most people. That's why I've been asking for specifics. Without a shared definition, it's hard to engage meaningfully. So with you moving away from raw yardage, does that mean your preferred KPIs are now height, weight, red zone efficiency, and point differential? If so, that's totally fine (just being clear about it helps). That said... red zone success and point differential depend heavily on OL play, WR execution, coaching decisions, defense (for point differential), etc. They're influenced by the QB but not exclusively determined by him... which, like passing yards, makes them more difficult to isolate for analysis of Bryce's performance.

I think the "Top 10" classification is much more simple than people think, at least for me.

Put every QB in the league into a re-draft of only QB's, does this player go in the Top 10 of that draft or not?

If they do, they're a Top 10 QB, if they don't, they're not.

And yes, things like age/contract would matter in a real QB draft, but in this instance things like that or future injury concern are thrown aside, essentially looking at it on a year to year type of thing as you're talking about a current Top 10 list.

[tukafan21]

1 hour ago, WUnderhill said:

Bryce Young is far less risky with his body when he runs than Richardson and doesn’t take many unnecessary big hits. Was much more worried about injury when he had that abysmal OL his rookie season than I ever would be when he runs/scrambles. 500/10 seems like a fairly reasonable prediction considering he had 250/6 in 12 starts last season. Of course literally anybody CAN get hurt, it’s just that we were assured by many huddlers that it was a sure thing with Bryce Young that he wouldn’t make it to this point in his career without significant injuries.

I'm less concerned about Young getting hurt while rushing, because like you said, he doesn't take a ton of risks when he scrambles.  I'm far more concerned that at his size, a crushing sack by a big DL might snap his body in half.

But this topic is exactly why I'm not very high on Jayden Daniels long term outlook unless he drastically changes the way he plays.  He basically looked like RG3 pt 2 out there last year, he runs with reckless abandon and doesn't protect himself from hits very well.  If he keeps that up, he won't have a long career and/or he's going to miss significant chunks of time every season due to picking up injuries.

[tukafan21]

2 hours ago, frankw said:

I would say the extremes from both camps in these conversations have to do with the blurring of the fact Bryce is a first overall pick and the expectations for that draft slot fair or not far exceed just being a top 20-25 starter amongst your peers.

Regardless. All logical Panthers fans want him to be the answer.

 

2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, these arguments are getting twisted to the point that it's just an airing of old grievances for the 100th time.

No matter what happened in the past, no matter what the "trajectory" is, Bryce has to show why he was a number 1 overall draft pick. 

If people didn't like Cam and what he did for us at QB, I hate to see what poor Bryce is gonna get if he doesn't reach Manning-esque heights. 

Honestly, for me, I actually don't care all that much about being the 1st overall pick and him living up to that selection.

It's the trade we made to go get him that he has to live up to for me.  

You can't be even just an average starting QB after a trade like that, because if that's all we're getting out of it, we could have kept going with journeyman type of QB's or taken a shot on a Jalen Milroe type in the 2nd to get similar play but then have kept Moore and all those other draft picks to build around them.

[frankw]

47 minutes ago, Icege said:

His footwork has been discussed at length, just like Cam's was--no argument from me there. What I'm asking for is a statistical indicator that supports the idea that Bryce's footwork is creating meaningful issues. With Cam, we could clearly correlate occasional high passes to footwork problems. With Bryce, there are occasional misfires as well, but we aren't seeing it surface with the frequency of severity you'd expect if it were such a persistent issue. That's why when concerns about his footwork and height are paired together, there should be some measurable statistical impact. That's what I keep coming back to.

That same inconsistency shows up in the deep ball critique. Saying "he misses guys outright" suggests he either isn't seeing them or can't hit them downfield... yet, as we've already seen, he was top-10 in catchable passes over 20+ yards. If accuracy were truly the issue, it should reflect in the data. It's also worth pointing out that deep-ball concerns largely became the next talking point after he made it through the season without the durability disaster some were predicting (despite being sacked for what was then the second-most times ever for a rookie QB). As for those sideline throws you mentioned: what specific throws are you referring to? If you can identify them, I'd be happy to pull up the PFF premium grades or grab All-22 clips from NFL Pro to look at those sequences and assess how real that concern is. For my part, I'd actually like to see improvement in the intermediate game. That was a strength his rookie year, but he seemed to trade it for a stronger deep game this past season. Could that shift relate to height and footwork? Maybe! But again... we'd need data or film trends to verify that rather than assume it.

On the "top-10" classification front: I know that it's a moving target for most people. That's why I've been asking for specifics. Without a shared definition, it's hard to engage meaningfully. So with you moving away from raw yardage, does that mean your preferred KPIs are now height, weight, red zone efficiency, and point differential? If so, that's totally fine (just being clear about it helps). That said... red zone success and point differential depend heavily on OL play, WR execution, coaching decisions, defense (for point differential), etc. They're influenced by the QB but not exclusively determined by him... which, like passing yards, makes them more difficult to isolate for analysis of Bryce's performance.

We've literally seen him hop around the pocket to survey the field in multiple occurrences. Defenses have this on tape. Cam and QB's like him built the way he was height and strength wise could get by on those natural gifts in their prime. Bryce Young is unequivocally going to have to go above and beyond with his footwork in order to carve out not just a long career but an elite career worthy of a top overall draft selection. We should be able to wholeheartedly agree with one another on that.

Intermediate sideline throws without placing the ball out of bounds where the receiver has to contort themselves or make an absurd acrobatic catch for it to be a completion. And yes developing a better chemistry in the deep passing game with his receivers to avoid miscues. Both areas will need to see improvement if the young offense is to develop the way we hope in 2025. And we don't necessarily need to be winning mind you. But development of the supporting cast requires this from Bryce.

We have invested a ton of capital in the offensive line. We've invested heavily in WR. We've invested in our backfield. We've invested in TE. We've got a young up and coming offensive minded head coach. The expectation should be for our redzone efficiency to improve significantly. That is not just on Bryce Young. But at the end of the day it will always begin and end with him more often than not. It's always been that way and that's just the nature of the position in this league. And not for nothing but before we drafted Bryce Young nobody was going around here saying we need elite play across the board and top shelf coaching for him to be effective. His biggest selling point was his ability to succeed off script and make something out of nothing. We're certainly going to have to see that come to fruition. Now we wait.

[NAS]

2 hours ago, frankw said:

We have invested a ton of capital in the offensive line. We've invested heavily in WR. We've invested in our backfield. We've invested in TE. We've got a young up and coming offensive minded head coach. The expectation should be for our redzone efficiency to improve significantly. That is not just on Bryce Young. But at the end of the day it will always begin and end with him more often than not. It's always been that way and that's just the nature of the position in this league. And not for nothing but before we drafted Bryce Young nobody was going around here saying we need elite play across the board and top shelf coaching for him to be effective. His biggest selling point was his ability to succeed off script and make something out of nothing. We're certainly going to have to see that come to fruition. Now we wait.

5 total TDs against the Falcons was pretty good efficiency and he showed that ability to go off scripts and get 2 of those TDs rushing.  How many times did he deliver big time throws against pressure.  I agree we need to see this offense operate at high efficiency which starts with Bryce. When he does I hope the goals posts won’t shift to some other stat like QB sneaks lol 

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, NAS said:

5 total TDs against the Falcons was pretty good efficiency and he showed that ability to go off scripts and get 2 of those TDs rushing.  How many times did he deliver big time throws against pressure.  I agree we need to see this offense operate at high efficiency which starts with Bryce. When he does I hope the goals posts won’t shift to some other stat like QB sneaks lol 

Some people will shift the goal posts but he does still have to consistently help the team win, eventually. Not only help but be the reason. That's what franchise QB's do.