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The future of the OL (one perspective)

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted

Most Huddlers have contacted me via Twitter, Zoom conference, PM, email, and in one case, a telegram delivered by the Pony Express (Mr. Scot) and asked me, "MHS, what are we going to do about the OL?  We already have the highest payroll and we are about to either pay Ekwonu for a fifth year or a lucrative, long-term contract.  Is this sustainable?" 

"Nope."

So I done some thinking, I did. I looked at contracts (OTC) and performance (PFF--the best available rating system, albeit flawed--let's move on) and age of the players.   A source called "AI" (yes, TheSpecialJuan, the same people who make the steak sauce) says this:

Peak performance by position

 
  • Tackles: Peak performance can last longer for tackles, with top-tier players often peaking around age 34.  
  • Centers and Guards: Peak performance for centers and guards generally occurs earlier, with peak years often ending between 29 and 32 years old. 

So with that in mind, I offer you something called "Research" (literally, it means "to look for it again.")

Enjoy

GUARD

Robert Hunt.  He is 29 right now and under contract for another 3 seasons. However, paying a G in his 30s $24m per season is crazy.  Something has to give.  We get no cap help by cutting him after this season unless he is a Post June 1 cut, then we throw $15m on the dead cap and save $9m.  Not worth it.  However, after the 2026 season, the post-June 1 savings go up to $19m. It is $13m if he is cut pre-June 1.  Hunt will be 31 (not that old for a G), but we would be smart to use that $$ elsewhere.  I think we need to plan on having Hunt on this team through 2026, unless he restructures, something I do not think serves the best long-term interests of the Panthers.

Damien Lewis.  (28) Less money, but nearly the same situation.  If he becomes a post-June 1 cut after the 2026 season, we would save $19m.  One could argue that both Lewis and Hunt could be on the roster through 2027, and a lot depends on the QB situation.  Still, if I am GM, I take a look at the current situation at Guard.  Lewis has 3-4 good years left and has been very solid.  With only half his contract guaranteed, it makes sense to extend Lewis and cut Hunt.

Jake Curhan…If you have been paying attention, he has been solid. In the long-term plans, this could be a lot more significant than it seems right now. Over the past few weeks, T Jake Curhan has been solid at RG.  He is 27.  I lock him down with a 4-year deal in the $8m-10m per range and make him my backup in 2026 (at 28) and starter in 2027 (at 29).  

 

image.thumb.png.fb8eacce2dd0ffe027fdfdba225c9903.png

image.thumb.png.d6d488bc885ba72eec49f86835dd86a8.png

image.thumb.png.f63cc201022f154f698f3c4f19ac2519.png

image.thumb.png.dc1ed324d7e439221ca404fe40931242.png

 

Guard Prognosis: Sign Curhan to a long-term deal, based on his performance at RG.  Extend Lewis for 2 years, keeping him as the RG  through 2029.  Trade Hunt now or release him after the 2026 season. Zavala is under contract through 2026 on a very team-friendly deal. He was better in 2024, fwiw, but those 2025 numbers are terrible.  Not sure we need a G in 2026 draft, unless we trade Hunt. (good luck with that).

 

CENTER

Cade Mays. (26) Mays is entering his prime as an OL and he has played several interior OL positions, making his contributions valuable.  He is probably average to slightly below average as a center, but he needs a contract.  An ideal IOL backup, he still has upside and is not a liability at center.  He needs to improve on his run blocking, but for a center, that has a lot to do with his abilities to recognize stunts and call blocking assignments–understandable.  Pass blocking is good, fwiw.  He needs a 4-year deal to keep him on the roster, and signing him now might be wise. 

Nick Samac (24).  It is noteworthy that the Panthers pulled up center Nick Samac (24) from the Ravens’ practice squad, who the Ravens were fairly high on, so maybe center is not as big a need as we think. I still think we should draft or sign a C at some point with the mindset of moving Cade Mays to a reserve IOL.  

Austin Corbett (30)  meanwhile, the oft-injured G converted to center, is making $10m this season and 2026 is a voidable year.  He is probably gone.  He is having a better year than Mays in spot duty, but last season, Mays actually outperformed Corbett using the PFF data.

 

image.thumb.png.7d3b8589512e07f7680dcc2d1e6a31cc.png

image.thumb.png.b0580778f1327ee36b5de6f0fe1e3007.png

image.thumb.png.2b3047a69653d5bbfcb1d696e103c868.png

 

Center Prognosis:  Sign Mays to a long-term, reasonable contract (backup rate with starting incentives), allow Samac to compete for the job/backup job (I have no idea how good he is).  Draft a center in 2026.  Say “bye-bye” to IR Corbett.

 

TACKLE

Icky Ekwonu (25) will see his salary double to about $17m in 2026, but I expect him to be re-signed to a long-term deal through the 2030 season.  If I am Morgan and I am not extending Young, I make that deal front-loaded

Taylor Moton (31) has been solid, and his salary for 2026 ($21m) means that he will be our RT next season.  He is likely to be in Carolina through 2027, when he turns 33, but the salary will be $28m, with half guaranteed.  He has a low, voidable year in 2028 (age 34) at a reasonable $6m.  

Brady Christensen (29).  Listed as a G, he is (to me) the epitome of a swing OT with the ability to backup OG, lowering the need to draft a G. He needs a deal, however, and if I am the Panthers, I give him a 3-year deal because his depth is valuable and he is playing well.

Yosh Nijman (29). Nope. A pass pro grade of 46.7 gets your QB blue tented.  His contract expires at the end of the 2025 season.  We need to draft Moton’s future replacement and possible backup.  Let BC play behind Icky and provide G depth.  Time to groom the next RT.

 

image.thumb.png.4cf9fda65638e7dff9097d349176813a.png

image.thumb.png.6c71fa6b640dd6899c878d67d6378a94.png

image.thumb.png.efb1c7f53e71149c30442358f199e9bf.png

image.thumb.png.bc2eadd57ae65b5a473cb50df144bf48.png

Tackle Prognosis:  Give Ickey the deal he deserves (ouch) and lock him down.  Count on Moton being your RT for 2026 and probably 2027.  Re-sign BC and let him play swing T and provide G depth.  Draft a RT in the 2026 draft. 

 

OVERALL:  The OL needs to manage the cap to sustain future growth, so the priority needs to be re-signing Curhan and planning for the Hunt departure. Re-sign Brady Christensen and Cade Mays to contracts of 3 years or so. Extend Lewis.  Lock Ickey down. Draft or sign a RT and C. Let Corbett and Nijman walk.  Lewis needs to restructure and Hunt needs to be gone before 2027. We lose the $10m Corbett salary and Nijman’s $3m, but Ickey’s salary goes up about $10m (5th year–unless he is signed to a long-term deal that absorbs some of that cost).  Lewis should be extended to save some cap room in 2026, but that $$ would go to the BC and Mays contracts. Curhan needs a deal because we need a proven commodity to replace Hunt down the road.  So the cap might increase for the OL in 2026 a bit, facilitating the Hunt release in 2027, which saves nearly $20m.  Of course, locking down Ickey now could make the 2026 cap more manageable.  With liabilities Corbett and Nijman gone (and the $13m they were paid), we can re-sign BC and Mays.  Lewis’ restructure could cover the first year of the Ickey deal and maybe Curhan will not be too expensive to re-sign.  If we could do this, our OL depth would be better and our future would be cheaper and brighter.

 

Urgency for 2026:

 

  • Tackle:  Low if we re-sign BC and draft a RT to develop behind Moton.  
  • Guard: Low if we still have Hunt, Lewis, Curhan, and Zavala for 2026.
  • Center: Medium urgency in that Mays has been decent and is entering his prime.  What do we have behind him?  Competition and depth needed. 
  • (NOTE:  I think the depth positions need to be filled in the draft because we can't afford free agents in 2026.)
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*FreeFua* Grand Master

*FreeFua*

Posted
Posted

Curhan has low key been very solid and yet Canales continued to trot Zavala out there

Now fortunately for us much like all other obvious roster moves that needed to happen that Canales can’t see we’ve been bailed out with another Zavala injury and Canales has no choice but to start the FAR better player

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted

Sign PS players to long term deals??? Brother...WTF.

I have an alternate idea, how about consistently draft OL and build great depth. This will allow the replacement of guys like Hunt and Lewis and getting those crazy contacts off the books. The organic and smart way. Not spending like drunken sailors for IOL on a BAD football team.

That poo is for teams that are a few moves away from being elite or champions.

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raleigh-panther Grand Master

raleigh-panther

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Most Huddlers have contacted me via Twitter, Zoom conference, PM, email, and in one case, a telegram delivered by the Pony Express (Mr. Scot) and asked me, "MHS, what are we going to do about the OL?  We already have the highest payroll and we are about to either pay Ekwonu for a fifth year or a lucrative, long-term contract.  Is this sustainable?" 

"Nope."

So I done some thinking, I did. I looked at contracts (OTC) and performance (PFF--the best available rating system, albeit flawed--let's move on) and age of the players.   A source called "AI" (yes, TheSpecialJuan, the same people who make the steak sauce) says this:

Peak performance by position

 
  • Tackles: Peak performance can last longer for tackles, with top-tier players often peaking around age 34.  
  • Centers and Guards: Peak performance for centers and guards generally occurs earlier, with peak years often ending between 29 and 32 years old. 

So with that in mind, I offer you something called "Research" (literally, it means "to look for it again.")

Enjoy

GUARD

Robert Hunt.  He is 29 right now and under contract for another 3 seasons. However, paying a G in his 30s $24m per season is crazy.  Something has to give.  We get no cap help by cutting him after this season unless he is a Post June 1 cut, then we throw $15m on the dead cap and save $9m.  Not worth it.  However, after the 2026 season, the post-June 1 savings go up to $19m. It is $13m if he is cut pre-June 1.  Hunt will be 31 (not that old for a G), but we would be smart to use that $$ elsewhere.  I think we need to plan on having Hunt on this team through 2026, unless he restructures, something I do not think serves the best long-term interests of the Panthers.

Damien Lewis.  (28) Less money, but nearly the same situation.  If he becomes a post-June 1 cut after the 2026 season, we would save $19m.  One could argue that both Lewis and Hunt could be on the roster through 2027, and a lot depends on the QB situation.  Still, if I am GM, I take a look at the current situation at Guard.  Lewis has 3-4 good years left and has been very solid.  With only half his contract guaranteed, it makes sense to extend Lewis and cut Hunt.

Jake Curhan…If you have been paying attention, he has been solid. In the long-term plans, this could be a lot more significant than it seems right now. Over the past few weeks, T Jake Curhan has been solid at RG.  He is 27.  I lock him down with a 4-year deal in the $8m-10m per range and make him my backup in 2026 (at 28) and starter in 2027 (at 29).  

 

image.thumb.png.fb8eacce2dd0ffe027fdfdba225c9903.png

image.thumb.png.d6d488bc885ba72eec49f86835dd86a8.png

image.thumb.png.f63cc201022f154f698f3c4f19ac2519.png

image.thumb.png.dc1ed324d7e439221ca404fe40931242.png

 

Guard Prognosis: Sign Curhan to a long-term deal, based on his performance at RG.  Extend Lewis for 2 years, keeping him as the RG  through 2029.  Trade Hunt now or release him after the 2026 season. Zavala is under contract through 2026 on a very team-friendly deal. He was better in 2024, fwiw, but those 2025 numbers are terrible.  Not sure we need a G in 2026 draft, unless we trade Hunt. (good luck with that).

 

CENTER

Cade Mays. (26) Mays is entering his prime as an OL and he has played several interior OL positions, making his contributions valuable.  He is probably average to slightly below average as a center, but he needs a contract.  An ideal IOL backup, he still has upside and is not a liability at center.  He needs to improve on his run blocking, but for a center, that has a lot to do with his abilities to recognize stunts and call blocking assignments–understandable.  Pass blocking is good, fwiw.  He needs a 4-year deal to keep him on the roster, and signing him now might be wise. 

Nick Samac (24).  It is noteworthy that the Panthers pulled up center Nick Samac (24) from the Ravens’ practice squad, who the Ravens were fairly high on, so maybe center is not as big a need as we think. I still think we should draft or sign a C at some point with the mindset of moving Cade Mays to a reserve IOL.  

Austin Corbett (30)  meanwhile, the oft-injured G converted to center, is making $10m this season and 2026 is a voidable year.  He is probably gone.  He is having a better year than Mays in spot duty, but last season, Mays actually outperformed Corbett using the PFF data.

 

image.thumb.png.7d3b8589512e07f7680dcc2d1e6a31cc.png

image.thumb.png.b0580778f1327ee36b5de6f0fe1e3007.png

image.thumb.png.2b3047a69653d5bbfcb1d696e103c868.png

 

Center Prognosis:  Sign Mays to a long-term, reasonable contract (backup rate with starting incentives), allow Samac to compete for the job/backup job (I have no idea how good he is).  Draft a center in 2026.  Say “bye-bye” to IR Corbett.

 

TACKLE

Icky Ekwonu (25) will see his salary double to about $17m in 2026, but I expect him to be re-signed to a long-term deal through the 2030 season.  If I am Morgan and I am not extending Young, I make that deal front-loaded

Taylor Moton (31) has been solid, and his salary for 2026 ($21m) means that he will be our RT next season.  He is likely to be in Carolina through 2027, when he turns 33, but the salary will be $28m, with half guaranteed.  He has a low, voidable year in 2028 (age 34) at a reasonable $6m.  

Brady Christensen (29).  Listed as a G, he is (to me) the epitome of a swing OT with the ability to backup OG, lowering the need to draft a G. He needs a deal, however, and if I am the Panthers, I give him a 3-year deal because his depth is valuable and he is playing well.

Yosh Nijman (29). Nope. A pass pro grade of 46.7 gets your QB blue tented.  His contract expires at the end of the 2025 season.  We need to draft Moton’s future replacement and possible backup.  Let BC play behind Icky and provide G depth.  Time to groom the next RT.

 

image.thumb.png.4cf9fda65638e7dff9097d349176813a.png

image.thumb.png.6c71fa6b640dd6899c878d67d6378a94.png

image.thumb.png.efb1c7f53e71149c30442358f199e9bf.png

image.thumb.png.bc2eadd57ae65b5a473cb50df144bf48.png

Tackle Prognosis:  Give Ickey the deal he deserves (ouch) and lock him down.  Count on Moton being your RT for 2026 and probably 2027.  Re-sign BC and let him play swing T and provide G depth.  Draft a RT in the 2026 draft. 

 

OVERALL:  The OL needs to manage the cap to sustain future growth, so the priority needs to be re-signing Curhan and planning for the Hunt departure. Re-sign Brady Christensen and Cade Mays to contracts of 3 years or so. Extend Lewis.  Lock Ickey down. Draft or sign a RT and C. Let Corbett and Nijman walk.  Lewis needs to restructure and Hunt needs to be gone before 2027. We lose the $10m Corbett salary and Nijman’s $3m, but Ickey’s salary goes up about $10m (5th year–unless he is signed to a long-term deal that absorbs some of that cost).  Lewis should be extended to save some cap room in 2026, but that $$ would go to the BC and Mays contracts. Curhan needs a deal because we need a proven commodity to replace Hunt down the road.  So the cap might increase for the OL in 2026 a bit, facilitating the Hunt release in 2027, which saves nearly $20m.  Of course, locking down Ickey now could make the 2026 cap more manageable.  With liabilities Corbett and Nijman gone (and the $13m they were paid), we can re-sign BC and Mays.  Lewis’ restructure could cover the first year of the Ickey deal and maybe Curhan will not be too expensive to re-sign.  If we could do this, our OL depth would be better and our future would be cheaper and brighter.

 

Urgency for 2026:

 

  • Tackle:  Low if we re-sign BC and draft a RT to develop behind Moton.  
  • Guard: Low if we still have Hunt, Lewis, Curhan, and Zavala for 2026.
  • Center: Medium urgency in that Mays has been decent and is entering his prime.  What do we have behind him?  Competition and depth needed. 
  • (NOTE:  I think the depth positions need to be filled in the draft because we can't afford free agents in 2026.)

Better be going young and unwounded in the draft    

Can  never have enough young, healthy, oline men.   Never

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