Okay gentlemen, REAL talk...

[SmokinwithWilly]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Said Bryce is part of the wins and plays a key position. Not the same as saying he's the key to the wins.

But also not denying he plays a role in them because...well, he did. Even if you limit his contributions to the  game winning drives in the 4th quarter, those still count.

And yes, he's improved. but saying that doesn't equate to saying he's good enough to put the franchise label on him. It's just a simple acknowledgement that he's better than he used to be (to what degree is debatable).

As to his initial expectations, I'll just say stats aren't the only thing I don't care about. What he is matters way more than what he was expected to be.

And what is he? He's what you referenced, a mid-tier quarterback. Not the "worst in the league" or "worst ever" as some claim. That's just hyperbole. 

Lots of teams have those. Very few teams have elite ones. And I wouldn't bet on next year's draft having a supply of those either.

And again, stats. We used to have a number of folks who bandied about some of Delhomme's stats, Newton's stats, etc. But lets look at a few of those...

What metric do you prefer? Yards, perhaps? Well, if those are key then Jared Goff, Sam Darnold and Bo Nix are all doing better than Baker Mayfield right now.  The second best quarterback in the league? Dak Prescott. And Young? Well, he's outpacing CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagavailoa and even Aaron Rodgers.

Prefer touchdowns? Cool. On that front, Jared Goff is tied for third in the league with Drake Maye, leading Rodgers, Mayfield. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen among others. Bryce is 15th in the league here, just a single score shy of Rodgers, Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Josh Allen.  Ahead of Tagavailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, and Jackson.

Interceptions? Holy hell, Bryce has fewer interceptions than Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence and, again... Josh Allen. Does that mean I can go out and post on X that Bryce has better ball security than Allen?

But wait, are some of these stats...misleading?

Seems like they are.

Weird  

 

Here's the thing. You compared him to Jake. Jake was signed to the practice squad out of college. Bryce was the number 1 overall. Their expectations are wildly different and so are their contracts. You can talk all you want about what a player is and where they are now and all this other mumbo jumbo, but Jake never had a 5th year option and we weren't talking about the possibility of a top 5 QB contract extension at the end of his 3rd year. What he was expected to be matters because we invested heavily at a cost of future capital, including a 2nd round pick this year, for him to be that guy. The cost to add Bryce took value from the team. To be worth it, he has to add that value back. 

Actually, I don't prefer yards, TDs, or only INTs. All those stats by themselves are misleading which is why I said you have to use a lot of different stats.

ADOT - Average depth of target. 

Completion %. Pretty obvious until you factor in ADOT. 0-5 has a lot higher C% than 10-15%.

Hang time. If a pass is in the air for 4.6 seconds vs 3.1 on a 40 yards throw, that gives a DB a lot of time to correct. Is it a loft or is it a laser. 

EPA - Expected points added. A way of measuring QB efficiency on every play. 

CPOE - ranking pass completions based on several factors, not just the throw. 

There's obviously more, but those are the more common. 

Typical stats don't show everything. You need to look all over. Looking at a stat line is lazy. That's why I said, you need to analyze everything. Once you start looking at the numbers you start looking at the player. That's why you follow numbers. They lead you places. You look at what happening when the numbers show you patterns. That's where you start finding the problems that yards, TDs and Ints won't show you. 

 

 

[Mr. Scot]

23 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Here's the thing. You compared him to Jake. Jake was signed to the practice squad out of college. Bryce was the number 1 overall. Their expectations are wildly different and so are their contracts. You can talk all you want about what a player is and where they are now and all this other mumbo jumbo, but Jake never had a 5th year option and we weren't talking about the possibility of a top 5 QB contract extension at the end of his 3rd year. What he was expected to be matters because we invested heavily at a cost of future capital, including a 2nd round pick this year, for him to be that guy. The cost to add Bryce took value from the team. To be worth it, he has to add that value back. 

Actually, I don't prefer yards, TDs, or only INTs. All those stats by themselves are misleading which is why I said you have to use a lot of different stats.

ADOT - Average depth of target. 

Completion %. Pretty obvious until you factor in ADOT. 0-5 has a lot higher C% than 10-15%.

Hang time. If a pass is in the air for 4.6 seconds vs 3.1 on a 40 yards throw, that gives a DB a lot of time to correct. Is it a loft or is it a laser. 

EPA - Expected points added. A way of measuring QB efficiency on every play. 

CPOE - ranking pass completions based on several factors, not just the throw. 

There's obviously more, but those are the more common. 

Typical stats don't show everything. You need to look all over. Looking at a stat line is lazy. That's why I said, you need to analyze everything. Once you start looking at the numbers you start looking at the player. That's why you follow numbers. They lead you places. You look at what happening when the numbers show you patterns. That's where you start finding the problems that yards, TDs and Ints won't show you. 

Know who had phenomenal, "best in the league" completion percentage some years back?

David Carr

The problem with the vast majority of football stats (even "Next Gen" stats) is that they tend to be inextricably entwined with someone else's performance. Completion percentage is affected by drops, bad routes, etc. Interceptions aren't always a quarterback's fault, but nobody else gets blamed for them. If a tackle gives up a sack, it might be because someone else missed their assignment on a given play.

There's too many different possibilities, and unless you're willing to go back and watch a sh-tload of film, you're not going to understand everything that happened.

That's why I just trust my eyes.

Edited 31 minutes ago by Mr. Scot

[SmokinwithWilly]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Know who had phenomenal, "best in the league" completion percentage some years back?

David Carr

The problem with the vast majority of football stats (even "Next Gen" stats) is that they tend to be inextricably entwined with someone else's performance. Completion percentage is affected by drops, bad routes, etc. Interceptions aren't always a quarterback's fault, but nobody else gets blamed for them. If a tackle gives up a sack, it might be because someone else missed their assignment on a given play.

There's too many different possibilities, and unless you're willing to go back and watch a sh-tload of film, you're not going to understand everything that happened.

That's why I just trust my eyes.

You know who else had a high completion %? Teddy 2 Gloves. He could check down with the best of them. 

I'm one of those people that watches and analyzes a lot, my brain does it by default, and it's something that I fully expect our scouts and FO to do religiously. Football is a sport I enjoy, and I actually watch footwork more than most. It drives my wife nuts, especially with our local hockey team. I can tell within a few games usually if a goalie is going to make it or not just by watching their feet. That's why I said stats give you a direction. They help show you where to look. They're a tool. As long as you realize that they're a tool to be used, not relied upon for absolute certainty.

I trust my eyes too. And I trust what I'm seeing. 3 years in, and Bryce's footwork and mechanics look almost identical to his rookie season and Alabama. Every time I see that jump pass I want to scream. Or when he squares up to the line of scrimmage to throw a pass instead of stepping into it to drive a throw. He does seem to have some sort of clutch gene, but he also has a WTF gene that rears its ugly head too.