Breaking Down "The List"

[Mr. Scot]

So here's what I've been musing on for the past few hours (while I was supposed to be working) :sosp:

The things I noticed right off the bat when I heard the teams that are allegedly on Peppers' trade list (Dallas, Atlanta, Tampa):

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- All the teams we think we know (minus the unknown in the AFC) are geographically in the south.

- Two are in the NFC South. The notion that the Panthers would trade him to a division rival is ridiculous, which makes me automatically wonder if they're red herrings.

(Note: Chandler says we shouldn't assume that the two teams the Panthers refuse to trade with are division rivals, but it is still a fairly logical deduction.)

- All three cities mentioned are perceived to be a little more loose in the nightlife arena than Charlotte.

- The fanbases for the teams mentioned are older and more established, and could be seen as more likely to offer more deference to star players (especially Dallas).

- Speaking of Dallas, they're the only team listed that runs the 3-4 scheme Peppers says he wants to play in (Gantt mentioned this too, and others have likely picked up on it).

- The Cowboys are also the only true "big stage" team of that bunch, though Atlanta is perceived as on the rise.

- While the Cowboys do have what Peppers says is his preferred scheme, what they don't have is a first round pick. That may not concern Julius much, but it would concern the Panthers a lot.

- Tampa doesn't fit the "want to play for a contender" idea, at least not in their current state.

- Haven't seen mention of the Saints. They don't run a 3-4 either but are arguably the best fit for the 'contender' scenario and just hired a DC with an aggressive mindset, so why not there rather than Tampa?

- Two of the teams listed already have star quality pass rushers. The third, Tampa, doesn't have a true star but they have an overall solid defensive line (or did, before the Panthers shredded it on Monday Night Football).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So looking at the big picture, if the list that we think we know right now (Dallas, Atlanta, Tampa, unknown AFC team) is valid, there are a few things that don't quite seem to add up :confused:

Gantt's read is that the unknown AFC team is the true target and the others are red herrings, i.e. undesirable scenarios designed to force the Panthers toward the true goal.

This makes sense to a certain degree, but not complete sense. Trading Peppers to an AFC team would seem like the most desirable scenario for the Panthers. Why would you need to nudge them toward it?

There would have to be something about that the AFC team in question that would make them less desirable. Draft position perhaps? Here's a look at where the AFC's 3-4 teams (and one other logical possibility) fall in the draft order.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Cleveland, #5 (attractive for Carolina, not so much for Peppers)

- Houston, #15 (4-3, but logical for other reasons)

- San Diego, #16

- New York Jets, #17 (factor in Kris Jenkins here)

- New England, #23

- Miami, #25 (some logic to this one)

- Baltimore, #26

- Pittsburgh, #32 (they rarely trade picks for other people's stars)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Outside of the Browns, pretty much all mid to late round. Would that be enough to turn the Panthers off given that the alternative is no first rounder at all?

Which brings me back to Dallas.

You'd have to think Dallas would be an attractive landing spot for Peppers. They have visibility like practically no other team. That visibility often translates into endorsement money for team stars. They have enough of those stars on defense that teams couldn't concentrate solely on stopping Peppers, in theory allowing him more opportunity to shine. They're known to be fairly protective of their players (including hiding their indiscretions). And they tend to pay big money to their important players. All that, plus Dallas is certainly a lot closer to Houston, where Peppers spends a lot of time, than Charlotte.

So, a good deal for Julius.

Not so good for the Panthers.

Outside of the division rivals (still unconfirmed at this point) this is arguably the least attractive trade scenario for Carolina. Though not in the division, they are in the conference. They already have several solid defensive players (late season letdowns aside). And to top it all off, they have no first round pick, having traded away what would have been the 20th pick to the Lions for WR Roy Williams.

So in my "pretend working" thought processes, I came to the conclusion that Peppers wants to be a Cowboy and is taking the strategy he is to try to force the team into what for them would be overall a bad deal.

I'd agree that the Jets scenario makes plenty of sense as well, especially given that Kris Jenkins is there and that New York, like Dallas, is a big stage. In the end though, I think Gantt has the right scenario, but the wrong target. I think it's Dallas that's the ultimate goal.

(of course, I could very easily be wrong too) :sosp:

[zebrainz]

I'm pretty sure Denver is making the transition to a 3-4 this year also with Mike Nolan. At least everthing I've read says so. They pick 12th. Pep does seem to like the night life there as well.

[Mr. Scot]

I'm pretty sure Denver is making the transition to a 3-4 this year also with Mike Nolan. At least everthing I've read says so. They pick 12th. Pep does seem to like the night life there as well.

Valid, but in that scenario what's the downside for the Panthers? Why would they balk?

I'll grant one issue I didn't address (except with the Steelers) is which teams would be willing to trade big picks for a player like Peppers. Honestly, that could be a whole discussion in itself.

My general perception: The teams that would be willing might not be the most desirable destinations for Julius.

[Kevin Greene]

Seriously doubt Peppers would want to go to a Tampa Bay he knew was losing Kiffin, then Gruden's firing and Morris coming in. No way he could have a clue what the Bucs will be. Total BS.

The Falcons? Please.

Cowboys? For a guy who runs from the spot light or from The Big Cats' assertion he step up like a leader 2 years ago, no way.

Some mysterious AFC team? I don't think anyone has a clue where Pep will end up at this time.

Maybe Peppers going off to the Texans where he can slide in in relative anonymity behind Mario Williams makes the most sense right now for Julius the introvert.

[Mr. Scot]

Seriously doubt Peppers would want to go to a Tampa Bay he knew was losing Kiffin, then Gruden's firing and Morris coming in. No way he could have a clue what the Bucs will be. Total BS.

The Falcons? Please.

Cowboys? For a guy who runs from the spot light or from The Big Cats' assertion he step up like a leader 2 years ago, no way.

Some mysterious AFC team? I don't think anyone has a clue where Pep will end up at this time.

Maybe Peppers going off to the Texans where he can slide in in relative anonymity behind Mario Williams makes the most sense right now for Julius the introvert.

Is he still "Julius the Introvert" though? You could make an argument that he's spoken more to the media this past season than all others combined.

I do agree that he doesn't want to be a leader. I'm not so sure he doesn't want to be a star.

[L.A. Fanatic]

i say he goes to miami

[VA Panther Fan]

I called the Cowboys early when the news first broke and no teams were listed. A lot of it makes sense, but the fact that the Cowboys have Ware really makes this a head-scratcher. If Pepp wants to be a star, then he needs to go somewhere where there isn't currently an established star at the position he's playing, so I'm going to put the Cowboys down on the list some.

The AFC team, I believe, IS the target. Here's where things get very interesting. If the Patriots decide to trade Matt Cassel, one team that I could see him going to is Detroit. The Lions have two first round picks and Cassell would give them a QB foundation. Remember, they never promised Culpeper he would start - only that he could compete for a job. Why do that unless they are planning to pursue a QB such as Cassell?

If that pans out, NE would have two first round picks and could easily give up their pick or the one they acquire from Detroit in a package for Pepp.

From Pepp's perspective, he goes to a team that could use him (their LB corps is aging) and by trading Cassell, they would have the cap room to fit him. Pepp doesn't have to be THE man on the team, but he would certainly be in a position to become a star.

From NE's perspective, I'm not so sure they would want a DE trying to transition to LB, but who knows.

[Scrumtrilescent]

Dallas has to sign Ware this offseason, too. Even they can't finagle what will most likely be the two top defensive salaries in the NFL on the same team.

[CLTPanther]

We aren't going to allow him to go anywhere in the NFC south. I think he named 3 NFC teams knowing they would only trade him to the 1 AFC team he mentions, which I think is NE. I think he wants to go get a ring somewhere and thinks Fox/Delhomme can't get it done. Having said that, who is most likely to be a big contender for a superbowl for the next few years? Yep, NE. I also don't think he would want to go to a team just implementing the 3/4 and having to wait for it to get established (assuming he isn't just blowing smoke about the 3/4). Also, Dallas doesn't have a 1st round. Do you think we would trade JP for a 2nd minimum?

[MadHatter]

You better hope it is not NE. They have a history of being frugal and not willing to overpay to get players. We would not get a 1st Rd Pick from the Patriots.

[X-Clown]

I don't think New England wants Peppers. Heard that especially Belichick is not in love with Peppers.

[Chubbs McGee]

I'm not convinced that there are 2 NFC South teams. I have heard from someone calling themselves a 'cousin' of Peppers (yeah i know) that his family is full of Redskins fans. I think that the 'skins may be one of the teams. And given the fact that we missed homefield advantage by a single game last season, I can understand why we wouldn't want to send him anywhere in the NFC - but especially to a team who is so close to carolina with an overlapping fan base.

[Fireball77]

I don't think New England wants Peppers. Heard that especially Belichick is not in love with Peppers.

I don't think they would either but hadn't heard the latter. Where did you hear that?

I hate to say it, but that covering up indiscretions thing Mr. Scot says would be a big plus with Dallas does make me go hmmmmmm after what supposedly happened with Pep in 2007.

[carpanfan96]

I called the Cowboys early when the news first broke and no teams were listed. A lot of it makes sense, but the fact that the Cowboys have Ware really makes this a head-scratcher. If Pepp wants to be a star, then he needs to go somewhere where there isn't currently an established star at the position he's playing, so I'm going to put the Cowboys down on the list some.

The AFC team, I believe, IS the target. Here's where things get very interesting. If the Patriots decide to trade Matt Cassel, one team that I could see him going to is Detroit. The Lions have two first round picks and Cassell would give them a QB foundation. Remember, they never promised Culpeper he would start - only that he could compete for a job. Why do that unless they are planning to pursue a QB such as Cassell?

If that pans out, NE would have two first round picks and could easily give up their pick or the one they acquire from Detroit in a package for Pepp.

From Pepp's perspective, he goes to a team that could use him (their LB corps is aging) and by trading Cassell, they would have the cap room to fit him. Pepp doesn't have to be THE man on the team, but he would certainly be in a position to become a star.

From NE's perspective, I'm not so sure they would want a DE trying to transition to LB, but who knows.

IF peppers wanting to play OLB was true then you can mark off the Cowboys, they wouldn't replace WARE. That would be the position that peppers would play in the 3-4. I still like either Houston, Miami, or NE.