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Who to root for, Week 11.

Awesomeness!!

By Awesomeness!!,
in Carolina Panthers

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Archimedes Rookie

Archimedes

Posted
Posted

Do you not understand that we PLAY the Saints twice? If we are going to win the division, we're going to have to beat them anyway. It makes more sense to have an insurance policy in place, in the event that we don't win the division.

 

No. No. No.

 

This is horrible logic.  Yes, we play the Saints twice.  We don't have to beat them twice to win the division.  The chance we beat them both games is around 25%, likewise it's about 25% they sweep us.  The most likely outcome is a split.  If that's the case we need to make up one game on them, and we need them to lose division and conference games.  Their schedule is very hard down the stretch, mainly the next 4 weeks. 

 

And the "insurance policy" you speak of is non-existent.  SF losing would effectively help us around 0.25-.05% (less than half a percent) in terms of probability of making the playoffs.  The reason, its very unlikely that any combo of any two of the 3 relevant WC contenders can jump us, with us holding tiebreakers over all of them.

 

Conversely, the difference between the #2 seed, and a #5 or 6 is drastic.  We'd have about an 7-8% shot at winning 3 consecutive road games vs playoff teams and advancing to the big game, we would have about a 20-25% chance of making the super bowl by getting the bye, playing at home, then having to win one road game (presumably in Seattle) to get there.  It's not even close.

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SOJA Veteran

SOJA

Posted
Posted

I like that your name now is Awesomeness

 

also I agree with the Saints game, plus we still play them twice. 9ers losing and Packers losing would help us tremendously

 

Also I REALLY agree with the cause for concern for zona. They legitimately beat us this year. 

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mbarbour21 Proficient

mbarbour21

Posted
Posted

Got to root for the NINERS, not even a question. However, if they win, we will still be in good shape. We need to beat the Pats first tho.

By the way, I fully believe we could sweep the Saints & the rest of the division for that matter. We could beat ATL with our backups in IMO, but I cant pull for the Saints because that keeps them ahead of us. We never kno what could happen. We may NEED to win the division. Forget worrying about history, let's make it!

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Big Boi Newbie

Big Boi

Posted
Posted

No. No. No.

 

This is horrible logic.  Yes, we play the Saints twice.  We don't have to beat them twice to win the division.  The chance we beat them both games is around 25%, likewise it's about 25% they sweep us.  The most likely outcome is a split.  If that's the case we need to make up one game on them, and we need them to lose division and conference games.  Their schedule is very hard down the stretch, mainly the next 4 weeks. 

 

And the "insurance policy" you speak of is non-existent.  SF losing would effectively help us around 0.25-.05% (less than half a percent) in terms of probability of making the playoffs.  The reason, its very unlikely that any combo of any two of the 3 relevant WC contenders can jump us, with us holding tiebreakers over all of them.

 

Conversely, the difference between the #2 seed, and a #5 or 6 is drastic.  We'd have about an 7-8% shot at winning 3 consecutive road games vs playoff teams and advancing to the big game, we would have about a 20-25% chance of making the super bowl by getting the bye, playing at home, then having to win one road game (presumably in Seattle) to get there.  It's not even close.

 

Very good post, and correct.  It is flawed logic to say "we play the Saints twice, we have to beat them anyway".  Our best chance lies in pulling for a Saints loss every week, decreasing the work we have to do in order to win the division.

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CatZilla Newbie

CatZilla

Posted
Posted

 

Colts-Titans
 
Doesn't really matter. 
 
Jets-Bills
 
Bills. We need the SOS. Plus fug the Jets 
 
Browns-Bengals
 
Browns. The AFC North plays the AFC East, so again, SOS.
 
Raiders-Texans
 
Doesn't Matter
 
Redskins-Eagles
 
Redskins, only to further ensure the NFC Least stays terrible, and nobody gets on a roll to compete for a Wildcard spot
 
 
Chargers-Dolphins
 
Dolphins. SOS.
 
 
Vikings-Seahawks
 
Vikings. They are out of it, and I think the Seahawks will slip up down the stretch, opening the conversation for  the number 1 seed.
 
 
Chiefs-Broncos
 
Broncos. SOS
 
 
Ravens-Bears
 
Ravens.
 
 
 
Lions-Steelers
 
Steelers.
 
 
Cards-Jags
 
Jags. I know nobody cares about Arizona, but that team is for real. That Defense is just as good as ours (as we saw in week 5) and they are getting hot. If Palmer can stop sucking they will be in the wildcard discussion. 
 
 
 
Falcons-Bucs
 
 
Nobody cares
 
 
 
Packers-Giants 
 
 
Giants. If the Giants can win here it basically eliminates the Packers
 
 
 
49ers-Saints
 
Saints. I know I'll catch poo for this, but in the long run its better if the Saints win here. We have the tie breaker on the 49ers. A win a MNF football, and a 49er loss here gives us a 2 game cushion on them. We'll play the Saints twice anyway so we'll have our shot to take the division.

 

 

Panthers-Pats

 

CACKALAKA

 

 

Jets- Bills   We need the Jets to win over the bills because Strength of Victory is b4 Strength of Schedule.

49ers- Saints  Pull for the 49ers gives the Saints a conferences lost + it helps our Strength of Victory if the tie breakers comes to it. And it Keeps the 49ers in the Division race with Seattle.

Packers-Giants  Pull for the Giants helps our Strength of Victory + knocks the Packers down

Falcons - Bucs  doesnt matter

Vikings- Seattle   Vikings Helps our Strength of Victory + Pulls niners back into division race

Bears- Raven     Ravens  NFC lost

Card- Jag    Jags   NFC lost  

Lions- Steelers  Steelers Nfc lost for seeding purposes

Eagles- Skins    doesnt really matter i think but Skins to keep the Eagles from Wild card race

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SZ James (banned) Experienced

SZ James (banned)

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Posted

Jets- Bills We need the Jets to win over the bills because Strength of Victory is b4 Strength of Schedule.

49ers- Saints Pull for the 49ers gives the Saints a conferences lost + it helps our Strength of Victory if the tie breakers comes to it. And it Keeps the 49ers in the Division race with Seattle.

Packers-Giants Pull for the Giants helps our Strength of Victory + knocks the Packers down

Falcons - Bucs doesnt matter

Vikings- Seattle Vikings Helps our Strength of Victory + Pulls niners back into division race

Bears- Raven Ravens NFC lost

Card- Jag Jags NFC lost

Lions- Steelers Steelers Nfc lost for seeding purposes

Eagles- Skins doesnt really matter i think but Skins to keep the Eagles from Wild card race

Bingo.

Only critique is that seattle losing might have unintended consequences, since they would win the head-to-head tiebreaker for the wildcard spot.

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