fivethirtyeight: How good is Andrew Luck? (and Cam Newton)

[Cary Kollins]

Interesting read that really breaks down the numbers of the overhyped one.

 

 

In both sets of value-over-replacement rankings, Luck narrowly places ahead of the Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton, who makes for a particularly interesting point of comparison. Statistically, the two quarterbacks offered similar production a year ago, but their reputations couldn’t be more different. Luck is widely known as a “winner“; Newton has been dogged by criticism as a “stat-padder” who doesn’t deliver in big moments. Those sentiments probably played a large role when Sando’s execs placed Newton in the third tier despite having a quantitative résumé similar to Luck’s. Backing up that viewpoint, Christopher Price writes in Football Outsiders’ 2014 Almanac: “Newton is a very talented quarterback, but nobody in the league would take him over Andrew Luck right now.”

Of course, the biggest reason professed by the executives for their high placement of Luck was his team’s success despite a weak supporting cast, which gets at the fundamental limitations of evaluating individual NFL players with metrics and the eye test. “The evaluators think Luck has carried a subpar roster to a 22-10 record without much help,” Sando writes.

Football Outsiders has a great caveat about individual advanced stats that goes along these lines:

“In 2013, Andrew Luck had 650 DYAR. But what we are really saying is ‘In 2013, Andrew Luck, playing in Pep Hamilton’s offensive system with the Indianapolis offensive line blocking for him and Donald Brown and Trent Richardson providing rushing support, had 650 DYAR.’ “

The truth is that in football, perhaps more than any other sport, a player’s statistics depend greatly on the talent around him. And the common perception is that Luck’s supporting cast is similar to that which went 2-14 with Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins under center in 2011. That might not be entirely true, but it’s largely beyond our statistical capabilities to test assertions like those empirically.

 

So, in a certain sense, we still don’t know how good Luck is. He’s probably better than his raw efficiency rates suggest, but maybe he’s not quite as good as his top-tier ranking among NFL scouts and executives. It’s a fuzzy picture of individual value that NFL fans have to settle for while we wait for new ways to more effectively disentangle players’ contributions from one another.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-good-is-andrew-luck/

[Razeyfingers]

a player’s statistics depend greatly on the talent around him

 

couldnt be more wrong

 

 

it depends on the day, the injury report, the players BOTH teams, where they played. . ughh god I hate when stupid people act like theyre smarter than they are.

[TheRed]

Luck has a weak supporting cast, he carried them, really?

 

Well he sure carried them right out of the playoffs his first year with 0 touchdowns and 2 turnovers against Baltimore.

[RelaxImaPro]

He's as good as the media says he is, obviously.  Duh.

[The Huddler]

Overhyped anything really, really anoys me, especially the young QBs in the NFL.

Luck, I have respect for. The others I do not.. Wilson, Kaepernick..over hyped. RG3 really went through a tough and and I tend yo have respect for him now. His rookie year when he was worshipped, not so much

Thanks CK

[Razeyfingers]

The guy's core argument is wrong, lol, whats to say really.

 

 

blink. . shrug

[Cary Kollins]

couldnt be more wrong

 

 

it depends on the day, the injury report, the players BOTH teams, where they played. . ughh god I hate when stupid people act like theyre smarter than they are.

 

 

I don't think the guy at fivethirtyeight is stupid.

 

 

I would agree with him that individual stats do depend greatly on your supporting cast.  Would Tom Brady have thrown 50 TDs without Moss?  Would Montana be as great as he was without Jerry Rice?

 

Would Steve Smith be one of the GOAT if he had played with Peyton Manning his entire career?

 

Come on now.

[ctrcat]

.500 QB outside of his joke of a division.

[TheRed]

.500 QB outside of his joke of a division.

 

Clinched the AFC south with 8 wins last year. Must be nice.

[Razeyfingers]

I don't think the guy at fivethirtyeight is stupid.

 

 

I would agree with him that individual stats do depend greatly on your supporting cast.  Would Tom Brady have thrown 50 TDs without Moss?  Would Montana be as great as he was without Jerry Rice?

 

Would Steve Smith be one of the GOAT if he had played with Peyton Manning his entire career?

 

Come on now.

 

Bro it depends on so many more factors. The day of the game (when where, weather etc), injuries (both teams injuries, was the star on defense he was playing out or not? play the whole game?), players on both teams of every team they played in the season (they arent playing identical schedules), it depends on the offense philosphy, it depends on the defense philosophy.

 

Im gonna stop there cause this guy is so far out of whack that about covers my point. This is nonsense

[Razeyfingers]

The fact of the matter is that theyre both good and and theyre both stars. Theyre different players, Id take Cam, shrug whatever.

[Cary Kollins]

Bro it depends on so many more factors. The day of the game (when where, weather etc), injuries (both teams injuries, was the star on defense he was playing out or not? play the whole game?), players on both teams of every team they played in the season (they arent playing identical schedules), it depends on the offense philosphy, it depends on the defense philosophy.

 

Im gonna stop there cause this guy is so far out of whack that about covers my point. This is nonsense

 

 

All the article is saying is that when you really look at the advanced stats, Andrew Luck is an average passer.

 

That's the entire point of the article.

[Razeyfingers]

All the article is saying is that when you really look at the advanced stats, Andrew Luck is an average passer.

 

That's the entire point of the article.

 

He says Luck "places" ahead of Cam. Ahh placing is more scientific and credible sounding. Oh he "placed"? Some dudes mustve been throwing down on some research to be placing people now.

[teeray]

Well, everyone in the media has declared the Panthers as having the worst WRs in the NFL and one of the worst O-lines.

So if Cam has a good season, or better season than Luck (again) statistically, we should all be able to agree on what is obvious. Cam >>>>>> Luck.

If Cam struggles, clearly they will make the same excuses for him that they have Luck every year.