way to early 2016 prediction thread

[CoastalCat]

4 minutes ago, Nick_81 said:

Thank goodness.

Your prediction? And what it's based on?

[Nick_81]

8 minutes ago, CoastalCat said:

Your prediction? And what it's based on?

It definitely wouldn't be based off of the past, whatever it is.

[pantherj]

I always get annoyed with fan predictions because just about everyone wants to predict losses to inferior teams.

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, Nick_81 said:

That list averages 5-7, even if you include the 12-0 from last year.

[Edit:  Sorry - messed up the quote.  It was @coastal_cat who wrote the above.  Not Nick_81.  I pulled Coastal's quote from Nick's post... hence the confusion]

Including any season prior to 2012 or 2013 is pretty silly.  We are not the same team.

If you're going to use an average, go with the last 3 seasons.  We still have a pretty good % of our starters from 2013 onwards.

So that gives an average of 8 wins, for 8-4.  MUCH more realistic than 5-7. 

But my own prediction is somewhere between 12-4 and 16-0.  I'm waiting for the draft and training camp before coming up with a definitive prediction.  Right now my best guess would be 13-3, though I hope I'm being much too pessimistic!!

[Camp Fodder]

There would definitely be some people on the hot seat if we start 5-7

[KB_fan]

Here's a graphic demonstration of why we should ignore Coastal_Cat's prediction of 5-7 (based on an average of Panthers' seasons from 2009 - 2014.) 

Thanks to PFR, here's a table showing all of our starters since 2010.  I've highlighted those who are likely to still be on the roster in 2016 vs. those who are gone, and calculated a % of remaining starters.   We have 39% of our 2013 starters, 64% of our 2014 starters and 84% of our 2015 starters expected to return.  Thus demonstrating why trying to predict the 2016 record using 2010 or 2011 or even 2012's record is ludicrous. 

Unless you expect names like Clausen, Gettis, Naanee, Fua, Godfrey .... or even Smith, Hardy, Gamble, Munnerlyn or Mitchell on the 2016 roster, you can't really pay much attention to seasons when they were the starters on our team.

 

 

[Nomad82]

12-4 NFC South Champs. Tampa Bay is still wet behind the ears and the Saints and Falcons may as well apply for AARP benefits.