Barnwell - MVProgression: Cam Newton can get even better in 2016

[UNCrules2187]

Good article by Bill Barnwell reviewing Newton's 2015 and how he can improve in 2016: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/BarnwellNFLPreview160824/carolina-panthers-qb-cam-newton-mvp-improve-nfl

Some interesting nuggets:

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The one other thing which might have aided Newton, of course, was more help from his receivers. My memory seems to suggest that Ginn dropped a 75-yard touchdown pass from Newton each and every week, but the data isn't quite as harsh. Ginn merely dropped seven passes last year, which was tied for fifth in the league, and as you might suspect, those drops were coming on what would have been big plays for the Carolina offense. Newton's overall drop rate was 3.8 percent, which was roughly league average. On throws of 20 yards or more in the air, though, Newton's drop rate spiked to 6.8 percent, which was the second-highest in the league behind the aforementioned Gabbert, who didn't throw deep anywhere near as frequently.

 

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The natural place for Newton to improve, given Carolina's style of play, is on play-action. It makes sense that a team with a dominant running game like Carolina's would be great when Newton holds linebackers and safeties with play fakes, and while ESPN's play-action statistics don't count run-pass options (RPOs), Newton does create short, efficient completions for himself by reading the defense correctly when Shula calls them.

On traditional play-action passes, though, Newton wasn't very good last season. He finished 30th in the league in QBR on those throws with a 48.8 mark, including four of his 10 picks. Contrast that to Taylor and Palmer, his fellow downfield bombers, who finished first and second in QBR on play-action passes. This wasn't a small sample size fluke, either; 28.7 percent of Newton's dropbacks came with play-action, which was third in the league behind Colin Kaepernick and Teddy Bridgewater.

It's fair to say that Newton won't be that bad on play-action in 2016, given that he was better in years past. Newton's QBR on play-action throws was 17th in the league in 2013 and 13th in 2014. It's still a surprise, though, that he hasn't been downright dominant on those play-action attempts, especially given how effective the Carolina rushing attack has been over that timeframe. If there's an opportunity for Newton to grow and finish in the top-five somewhere new in 2016, it's here.

 

 

[Omega Atrocity]

I read this earlier, it's an excellent statistical analysis for what areas he still has room to improve (which is amazing). All of Barnwell's stuff is great.

[KB_fan]

Thanks for posting this. I follow Barnwell on Twitter, but somehow I'd missed this.

[Growl]

having to include QBR in a legitimate analysis piece must be something akin to chewing gravel.

[tondi]

Barnwelll has always seemed to give us a pretty fair shake.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Good read