Offseason Primer Thread... or "On The Assumption That Santa Claus Isn't Real"

[Bronn]

3 minutes ago, Cracka McNasty said:

I included the bump in cap that every team will get league-wide. They're estimating a conservative $10 million but it could be even higher.

Right. I thought Sportstrac was already accounting for that. I could be wrong though!

The more the merrier, as they say!

[Ricky Spanish]

4 minutes ago, Bronn said:

Right. I thought Sportstrac was already accounting for that. I could be wrong though!

The more the merrier, as they say!

Oh, wow you're right. In order to get to 70 we'd have to make quite a few cuts.

I don't think we get rid of Stewart though. he's too valuable to the offense and when he's healthy he's damn good. Only problem is he isn't always healthy and that sucks. If we bring in another RB then that should help spell him though. 

Either way I think he stays but we cut ties with Dickson and Tolbert.

Also wouldn't be surprised if we don't re-sign Ginn. Even though he is somehow the focal point of our offense, I just have a feeling we don't keep him. 

[Bronn]

2 minutes ago, Cracka McNasty said:

Oh, wow you're right. In order to get to 70 we'd have to make quite a few cuts.

I don't think we get rid of Stewart though. he's too valuable to the offense and when he's healthy he's damn good. Only problem is he isn't always healthy and that sucks. If we bring in another RB then that should help spell him though. 

Either way I think he stays but we cut ties with Dickson and Tolbert.

Also wouldn't be surprised if we don't re-sign Ginn. Even though he is somehow the focal point of our offense, I just have a feeling we don't keep him. 

I'm hoping we can keep Ted. He's still a threat, and if we let him walk, I don't know that we'll get a cheaper replacement unless it is a rookie.

What do you think of Latavius Murray instead of (or maybe even in addition to) Jonathan Stewart? He's projected to be cheaper than Stewart by a bit. I love me some Stewie, but you nailed the point that worries me... the health.

[Ricky Spanish]

2 minutes ago, Bronn said:

I'm hoping we can keep Ted. He's still a threat, and if we let him walk, I don't know that we'll get a cheaper replacement unless it is a rookie.

What do you think of Latavius Murray instead of (or maybe even in addition to) Jonathan Stewart? He's projected to be cheaper than Stewart by a bit. I love me some Stewie, but you nailed the point that worries me... the health.

I like Murray, but I think Stewart is better. I can see a scenario where we sign Murray and then cut stewie, but I don't think we just outright cut Stewart because there is absolutely no one worth a damn behind him.

I mean what kind of a GM does something like that.... twice?

[Bronn]

3 minutes ago, Cracka McNasty said:

I like Murray, but I think Stewart is better. I can see a scenario where we sign Murray and then cut stewie, but I don't think we just outright cut Stewart because there is absolutely no one worth a damn behind him.

I mean what kind of a GM does something like that.... twice?

[d-dave]

Hey @Bronn, that's a good post with a lot of work!  I just wanted to commend you on that.  I don't think I have the tenacity to write something like that right now!  All I'm hoping for is a better team in 2017!

[Bronn]

20 minutes ago, d-dave said:

Hey @Bronn, that's a good post with a lot of work!  I just wanted to commend you on that.  I don't think I have the tenacity to write something like that right now!  All I'm hoping for is a better team in 2017!

Thanks bud! I think that's what we're all wishing for this Xmas, as far as the Panthers are concerned.

[RealBitsOfPanther]

Fantastic Work @Bronn

 

I'd be cool with any of those in the first round tbh. I just want an immediate/impact player

[panthers55]

The first thing a GM has to be able to do is be objective and not skew the facts toward their preconceived ideas. The whole discussion with Shula versus McDermott is very skewed toward your dislike of Shula and weakens your whole post. Some suggestions include the fact that using a quantity stat like total yards or QBR ranking which doesnt really tell you much. And to link that to the OC and downplay player execution or injuries points out the skewed perspective.  . A stat like points per game at.least has something to do with the total outcome. Secondly using relative rankings is also sloppy statistically when for example the difference between being ranked 5th or 15th could be 1 point or 20 points. It changes from year to year making them largely useless for comparison purposes especially comparing  different units on different measures over time.

As for the players and who is available it might help to know where we pick  and who will be available in the free agency market before making any.meaningful threads.

Still I appreciate the work involved so take my comments  as suggestions not necessarily criticisms 

[Bronn]

11 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

The first thing a GM has to be able to do is be objective and not skew the facts toward their preconceived ideas. The whole discussion with Shula versus McDermott is very skewed toward your dislike of Shula and weakens your whole podt. Some suggestions include the fact that using a quantity stat like total yards or QBR ranking which really tell you much. And to link that to the OC and display player execution or injuries points out the skewed perspective.  . A stat like points per game at.least has something to do with the total outcome. Secondly using relative rankings is also sloppy statistically when for example the difference between being ranked 5th or 15th could be 1 point or 20 points. It changes from year to year making them largely useless for comparison purposes especially comparing  different units on different measures over time.

As for the players and who is available it might help to know where we pick  and who will be available in the free agency market before making any.meaningful threads.

Still I appreciate the work involved so take my comments  as suggestions not necessarily criticisms 

I appreciate the post.

Maybe I should have argued moreso that this year, one could say that Shula wasn't dealt the blows that McDermott has been. Aside from not signing quality lineman on either side of the ball, our biggest change was that we lost Josh Norman. Both lines have been banged up, but we got Benjamin back.

I guess what I was getting at was, all things considered this year (with an eye towards history as well) one could argue that Shula and the offense SHOULD have done better than the did. McDermott, one could argue, has done better than expected given his circumstances, especially as of late.

[Arroz con Panther]

I haven't read it all, but I wanted to let everyone know that I had a dream last night where I was personally talking to Stewart (throwing the pigskin around just like dad and son) and he alluded to the fact that he might not be coming back.  He didn't say it, but he didn't answer either; he just shrugged.

Great post though; it's nice to have a rational one.  I look forward to reading the rest after work.

[panthers55]

1 minute ago, Bronn said:

I appreciate the post.

Maybe I should have argued moreso that this year, one could say that Shula wasn't dealt the blows that McDermott has been. Aside from not signing quality lineman on either side of the ball, our biggest change was that we lost Josh Norman. Both lines have been banged up, but we got Benjamin back.

I guess what I was getting at was, all things considered this year (with an eye towards history as well) one could argue that Shula and the offense SHOULD have done better than the did. McDermott, one could argue, has done better than expected given his circumstances, especially as of late.

That assumes the units work in isolation. As folks have pointed out, this team is not built to be an offensive juggernaut like Atlanta or New Orleans. This is a control the clock heavy run offense  which needs a good defense to be successful. in addition a heavy run scheme demands a great O line. With Kalil and Oher out completely and playing guys at left and right tackle who haven't played there as pros, it really hampers everything. Look at how Cam is having his worse season ever versus last year with a really good and healthy line, Cam had his best ever. My only hope this year was that the offense could outscore the opponents while the defense improved. Obviously the defense was even worse than I imagined and the offense and special teams made enough errors to create the awful start. Hard to blame one person or unit when there is enough to go around not counting injuries where we lead the league in players on IR. No consistency at all.

[panthers55]

3 hours ago, Bronn said:

I will agree with you there. I was more firing shots at KB with that comment, though. But, as a whole, I don't see the fire in any of our guys, aside from Ginn, that they had last year. Funch has done well recently, but earlier in the season he was kind of a ghost when it mattered.

I hope nobody takes this the wrong way. I love all our guys. They are the Panthers and I am just a fan. As an observer, though, I do try to pick up on things and make note.

I really think the whole rotten egg in the room is Shula, and once we fix that situation, then everyone is going to be better and morale will improve.

How do you account for the number 1 offense and the best offense in our franchise history last year. It wasn't starting field position, defensive points, extra drives or any of the excuses often put forward and I shared a post proving all that with facts comparing us to league averages. Do you think he had a stroke or had brain damage? Like Cam the whole offense is off. To say last year was just an outlier is pretty dismissive as well. 

Morale between players and coaches seems fine. Now between players and the GM, that could be a horse of a different color. 

[Kakarot]

5 hours ago, Cracka McNasty said:

Great post dude, tons of work went into it and I liked that you added the videos. A few opinions:

• I believe you are thinking too small in FA
• In year's past I have been on the sign these no name guys and see if they work out, but this year we have the cash to make things happen. We have the ability to go after guys like JPP, Berry, and Jackson, but the guys you listed aren't bad options for depth. I would expect one "big name" signing this offseason because we'll have nearly 70 million in cap space BEFORE we release anyone. 
• Why so little love for Norwell? He's been our most consistent Lineman this year hands down. Both him and Trai have taken a small step back due to the revolving door at Center and Tackle. Once you get a line gelling they play better off each other. No need to bring in a guard expecting him to start or take Norwell's job, but another guy for depth wouldn't hurt.
• Another tackle we might kick the tires on is Luke Joeckel the failed 1st rounder from the jags a few years back. He, like Kalil, has been a disappointment but it could be a depth signing.
• If we bring back Remmers, which I think we might, it will be for depth, not with the expectations to start. 
• I don't like Royce Freeman, nothing about his running style says "exceptional" to me. He avoids contact and looks pretty slow. The only thing he has going for him is experience in the read option. Would rather have Cooks or Foreman over him.
• Tarik Cohen - Jeebus, I want to take a late round flyer on that guy. He could take Fozzy's job. 

All in all, good writeup OP

Man, I'd be too thrilled if we got Tarik Cohen and that would be a jersey I'd buy instantly. As an alum, I've seen the little dude do some amazing things with the football, and make something out of nothing a lot of times: He's pretty much carried the team, and the major reason we've experienced a ton of success these past few years. Saw him live at the celebration bowl last year, and we would've lost that game if not for him. He was producing 200 yard games like it was nothing.