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Won't be there...WR and TE

AU-panther

By AU-panther,
in Carolina Panthers

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted

"He won't be there" is a pretty common comment around this forum at draft time so I thought it might be interesting to actually look at how many players are usually drafted at certain positions in each round.

For this post I just looked at WRs and TEs for the past 6 drafts.

This table is players picked in each round.

    WR                 2016     2015     2014     2013     2012     2011      AVG

Round 1                4           6           5            3           4          3            4.2

Round 2                3           3           7            3           5          4            4.2        

Round 3                2           5           3            5           4          4            3.8

Round 4                6           4           5            4           8          5            5.3 

Round 5                5           6           3            2           3          4            3.8

Round 6                7           5           5            4           4          4            4.8

Round 7                6           6           5            5           5          4            5.2

 

Also decide to look at it based on some of our actual draft picks.

This table is total players before each pick.

WR                    2016         2015       2014      2013     2012   2011     AVG

Pick 40                 4               7             6            4           5        3          4.8

Pick 64                 7               9            12           6           9        6           8.2

Pick 98                 9             14            15          11         14      10         12.2

Pick 115              12            16            17          13         17      13         14.7

__________________________________________________________

TE                        2016     2015     2014     2013     2012     2011      AVG

Round 1                0           0           1            1           0          0            .33

Round 2                1           1           3            3           1          2            1.8        

Round 3                2           3           3            2           2          1            2.2

Round 4                1           1           0            2           4          3            1.8 

Round 5                0           5           1            1           0          2            1.5

Round 6                4           5           0            3           1          1            2.3

Round 7                1           4           2            4           2          3            2.7

 

Also decide to look at it based on some of our actual draft picks.

This table is total players before each pick.

TE                    2016         2015       2014      2013     2012   2011     AVG

Pick 40                 1               0             2            2           1        0           1

Pick 64                 1               1             4            5           1        2           2.3

Pick 98                 3               4             5            6           3        3           4

Pick 115               4               4             7            7           5        5            5.3

 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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I think the main point to take from this is that the odds of their being two TEs taken in the 1st round seem slim to none. 

This does nothing to change my wishlist for the first four picks:

1. Fournette

2. WR (Zay Jones is my pick for right now)

3. DE (still sticking with DeMarcus Walker here for the moment) 

4. TE (Leggett is my pick for right now)

Now, the odds of it actually working out like that are probably also slim to none, but ideally speaking that's what I'd love to see.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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10 hours ago, Marguide said:

So what conclusion should we draw from this?

It appears the point is that we are more likely to see a good TE fall than a good WR. Or did you see something else?

Not really looking for specific conclusions, more of a tool to decide at what point you would have to pick a certain player.

Lets take Zay Jones for an example.

What is the chance he is there at 40?  History tells us that usually 4.8 receivers are drafted by that point.  If you think he is a top 4 receiver there is a good chance he won't be there.

What is the chance he is there at 64?  Historically 8.2 receivers are drafted by then.

Based on this I think if we were really high on him you would have to try and take him at 40, because most likely he won't be there at 64.

Also when you look at a draft you have to look at what points you can pick certain players so you maximize your entire draft.  If you draft in a vacuum you might hurt yourself later.

For example:

Would you prefer Thomas (DE) in the first and (Kittle) in the third or Howard (TE) in the first and Lawson (DE) in the third? (just picking names here to illustrate a point)

 

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top dawg Grand Master

top dawg

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Is Zay Jones a top five receiver? That's a good question.

I would love to have him, but where will he fall on our board?

I'd have to think he is undoubtedly top eight. 

Perhaps we'll use 98 and 64 to move up a little bit. Maybe it's 115 and 98 to move up a little there. Knowing Gettleman, we'll end up doing something. His drafts are very much fluid.

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grimesgoat Experienced

grimesgoat

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10 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think the main point to take from this is that the odds of their being two TEs taken in the 1st round seem slim to none. 

This does nothing to change my wishlist for the first four picks:

1. Fournette

2. WR (Zay Jones is my pick for right now)

3. DE (still sticking with DeMarcus Walker here for the moment) 

4. TE (Leggett is my pick for right now)

Now, the odds of it actually working out like that are probably also slim to none, but ideally speaking that's what I'd love to see.

Other than the WR at pick 40, I generally agree.  I go back and forth between OJ and Fournette in the first.

But we have 2 guards that will be looking to get paid next year as well as a center that is not getting any younger.  Some have argued Dave drafted Butler because he needed some leverage or a backup plan in case the Star/Short combo got too expensive.  I think Dave will do the same thing this year and draft a G/C at some point in the first 3 rounds.  I like Eiflein myself.  What do you think? 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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Wouldn't shock me to see an interior OL drafted relatively early. I'd prefer not in the first 3 rounds, but we'll see.

The reason I'd love to go WR at #40 is because our WR corps has been trash for long enough. Enough with hoping and praying that Funchess takes a step forward and that we can patch together a WR corps out of cheap FAs and special teamers.

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top dawg Grand Master

top dawg

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1 minute ago, grimesgoat said:

Other than the WR at pick 40, I generally agree.  I go back and forth between OJ and Fournette in the first.

But we have 2 guards that will be looking to get paid next year as well as a center that is not getting any younger.  Some have argued Dave drafted Butler because he needed some leverage or a backup plan in case the Star/Short combo got too expensive.  I think Dave will do the same thing this year and draft a G/C at some point in the first 3 rounds.  I like Eiflein myself.  What do you think? 

I never bought that. Butler was his BPA! I think G-man is all about taking the BPA, especially this year after putting us in a needy position last year. I don't think he's going into the draft this year with any preconceived notions based upon need. 

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