Some of the BEST stats ever! GREAT news for Panthers vs. Saints. And a great opportunity to troll New Orleans fans...

[KB_fan]

Wow oh wow!  Every now and then following a statistical hunch pays off!

I hit amazing statistical gold tonight doing some research on New Orleans....

Two tweets I just posted tell the story in brief:

 

[KB_fan]

For those who can't see embedded tweets, the text of those read:

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For those who may not see all tweets in thread I just posted, know this: @Saints have won 0 of 13 games when held to <20 points since 2014!!

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And know THIS too. @Saints worst defense in league since 2014. Only held 7 opponents to <20 pts in their last 50 games! Let's GO @Panthers!

 

[KB_fan]

There are quite a few more details / context in the longer series of 10 tweets I posted beginning here [click on the tweet to see all 9 replies I added...]

link:  https:// twitter.com/PanthersFan_Afr/status/910290357157580801

[take out the space following the https://  ]

[jfra78]

Can't wait for Sunday

[ladypanther]

Awesome stuff!

[Hoenheim]

We can also put them firmly in the basement of NFC South by winning. If the offense sputters again , against the leagues worst defense then we have very serious problems heading into New England. 

[KB_fan]

So, there's HUGE hope (100% probability based on past 3 seasons) of a Panthers win if our defense balls out and holds New Orleans to < 20 points.

Cleveland was the only other team to win 0 games when held to <20 points in the past 3 seasons.

The league average for wins when scoring < 20 points was 19% in past 3 seasons. 

[Panthers win rate since 2014 in games scoring < 20 points is ABOVE average at 20%.]  

Saints won 0%    HA HA HA HA HA

 

Truth does force me to admit that Saints had a low frequency of scoring < 20 points, however. 

Saints only scored < 20 points in 26% of their games (6th best).   League average for all teams since 2014 for games in which team scored < 20 points was 38%.  [Panthers 36%]

[ColumbusCounty]

We will hold them to 17-21 points.

Most important factor will be controlling the clock on offense and limiting Bree's possessions.

Tedd Ginn will burn us a couple times but he's 25 percent in the hands department anyway. 

Very nice find. 

[jfra78]

i really cant see their running game working at all, hopefully our pass rush can get there and disrupt the pass

[KB_fan]

Now as for those stats re: New Orleans defense. 

Only 7 times in 50 games (14%)  did New Orleans hold an opponent to <20 points.   (This isn't really a surprise.... We know that Saints games are often shoot outs and pretty high scoring affairs for both sides...)

But I really didn't realize that New Orleans was far & away the WORST in the league since 2014.

Worse than Cleveland (9 games / 18%),  Oakland (11 games / 22%), Washington & Jax (12 games / 24%).

Panthers defense fared MUCH better:  We held 25 opponents to < 20 points in our last 55 games (post-season included) = 46%   [And this DOESN'T include the 2013 season when Panthers D was really awesome!  It's just since 2014.]  Oh, and Panthers WON 84% of the time when our defense held an opponent to <20 points.

 

Got to like the Panthers' chances for an offensive explosion, and for some defensive dominance on our parts!

[KB_fan]

Below is the table with all my research on every team's history regarding scoring less than 20 points and allowing less than 20 points since 2014.   All the data comes from Pro Football Reference.

Here for instance is the query showing the only 7 games in which New Orleans defense held opponents to under 20

http://pfref.com/tiny/X7myu

Here is the query showing all 13 times the Saints were held to <20 points (and lost all 13 of those games!)

http://pfref.com/tiny/9Tks4

By the way, the Saints HAVE been denied a touchdown in 3 of those games.... It CAN be done!  Let's see if our D can deny our opponents a TD for a 3rd straight week!

Data in the table above is sorted by team name, not in any kind of ranking order.

I'll try to do some graphs showing the relative rankings of the teams in regards to their offensive / defensive prowess and vulnerability / success in low-scoring games tomorrow.

[KB_fan]

By the way, slightly off-topic, but look at the table above, and note Buffalo's EXCELLENT Win % (41% vs. league average of 19%) in games when they scored <20 points, and also their slightly better than Panthers win % in games when they allowed an opponent <20 points.

Buffalo is 2nd best in the league since 2014, only behind SEATTLE in terms of winning games in which opposing defenses held them to under 20 points!!  Buffalo won 7 of 17 such games they played.  Seattle won 9 of their 16 games.

Buffalo is TOUGH in low scoring games - both in regards to their offense and their defense.

Panthers really were very fortunate to come away with a win in that game!  No need to downplay this win and say Buffalo a bad team.  Not in this regard they're not!

 

[ecu88]

3 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

By the way, slightly off-topic, but look at the table above, and note Buffalo's EXCELLENT Win % (41% vs. league average of 19%) in games when they scored <20 points, and also their slightly better than Panthers win % in games when they allowed an opponent <20 points.

Buffalo is 2nd best in the league since 2014, only behind SEATTLE in terms of winning games in which opposing defenses held them to under 20 points!!  Buffalo won 7 of 17 such games they played.  Seattle won 9 of their 16 games.

Buffalo is TOUGH in low scoring games - both in regards to their offense and their defense.

Panthers really were very fortunate to come away with a win in that game!  No need to downplay this win and say Buffalo a bad team.  Not in this regard they're not!

 

The voice of reason of this board when people scream doom and gloom. 

[KB_fan]

GIven that the Panthers' DEFENSE is looking like it has serious potential to be elite / dominating, here's a bit more good news regarding other upcoming opponents and their poor success when they are held to < 20 points on offense:

In order of WORST to BEST here are win percentages for when teams are held to < 20 points since 2014:

Note that Philly is up there with New Orleans with a big fat 0% record when held to < 20 points over the past 3 years - 0 wins in 10 such games.

Chicago and Jets have only won 3 games when held to < 20 points in 24 and 25 games respectively.

Even NFC powerhouses and key rivals, Atlanta & Green Bay show up in the bottom half of this list, below league average, each winning only 2 of 12 games when limited to < 20 points in the past 3 seasons.  There is real hope for the Panthers if our defense is as dominant as it currently appears to be....!