Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

So why are the Ravens favored?


Camp Fodder

Recommended Posts

 

I would love to see our record as favourites vs underdogs.    The games this season could have gone either way, let your gut decide who will win.

Carolina in last 30 games as fav: 19-11 su, 12-15-3 ats

Carolina in last 30 games as dog: 14-15-1 su, 19-11 ats

Carolina in last 10 games as home dog: 5-5 su, 7-3 ats

Carolina has been very respectable with respect to Vegas expectations, esp as a dog equally home and away winning half the games SU and about 2/3 ATS. The last 10 as the home dog shows Carolina as a strong angle.

 

IMO, the Ravens are favored in this game because they are very strong at this point of the season in power metrics. They are the top scoring defense in the league, 2nd in +/- only to the Rams, and Flacco has been reasonably solid. Betting power rankings have them in the Top 5 while Carolina is ranked about 12.

Like all fan bases, Carolina fans overestimate the talent of their team because that is the only team that they focus on. The over/under on wins for Carolina this year was 9, so the realistic expectations were that this team’s roster and schedule placed them out of the playoffs and slightly above the middle-of-the-pack.

Car is 3-3 ats while Balt is 4-3 ats currently...for me, it’s hard to have a feel for this game. There is no reason for any side of the bet to feel confident in this basically toss up game...either straight up or vs the spread. It will prob come down to turnovers, penalties and special teams. I picked Car as the home dog given Rivera’s good record there vs Balt being neutral on the road.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Three weeks ago we needed to pull a 63 yard FG out of our bleep and we have only looked decent for twenty minutes combined over the past two weeks.

If an identical situation arose not involving the Panthers where the team in our situation were favored it would make little sense to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, GusLevy said:

Carolina in last 30 games as fav: 19-11 su, 12-15-3 ats

Carolina in last 30 games as dog: 14-15-1 su, 19-11 ats

Carolina in last 10 games as home dog: 5-5 su, 7-3 ats

Carolina has been very respectable with respect to Vegas expectations, esp as a dog equally home and away winning half the games SU and about 2/3 ATS. The last 10 as the home dog shows Carolina as a strong angle.

 

IMO, the Ravens are favored in this game because they are very strong at this point of the season in power metrics. They are the top scoring defense in the league, 2nd in +/- only to the Rams, and Flacco has been reasonably solid. Betting power rankings have them in the Top 5 while Carolina is ranked about 12.

Like all fan bases, Carolina fans overestimate the talent of their team because that is the only team that they focus on. The over/under on wins for Carolina this year was 9, so the realistic expectations were that this team’s roster and schedule placed them out of the playoffs and slightly above the middle-of-the-pack.

Car is 3-3 ats while Balt is 4-3 ats currently...for me, it’s hard to have a feel for this game. There is no reason for any side of the bet to feel confident in this basically toss up game...either straight up or vs the spread. It will prob come down to turnovers, penalties and special teams. I picked Car as the home dog given Rivera’s good record there vs Balt being neutral on the road.

That was my ask though. Toss up games almost always favors the home team. If you go out and look and see who the home dogs are this week you will see the visiting team is clearly better.  It isn’t a tossup. Hell even the giants are not a home dog and they have 1 win

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do like this nugget:

Trends to know: The Ravens are allowing 14.4 points per game this season, fewest in the NFL by more than three points. In Cam Newton’s career, he has faced a defense in October or later allowing fewer than 17 PPG five times.

According to our Bet Labs data, the Panthers are 4-1 against the spread in those five games, but more importantly, Carolina has averaged 25 points. — Evan Abrams

The Ravens are off a home loss against the Saints last week and many may think Baltimore is a good bet to bounce back.

But over the past five seasons, Joe Flacco is just 1-4-2 ATS the game after a home loss and in Flacco’s career he is just 7-9-2 ATS, including 5-7-1 ATS on the road after a home loss. — Abrams

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

That was my ask though. Toss up games almost always favors the home team. If you go out and look and see who the home dogs are this week you will see the visiting team is clearly better.  It isn’t a tossup. Hell even the giants are not a home dog and they have 1 win

Well, based on the power metrics this game is not a pick’em game - Balt is objectively the stronger team as they would be an approx 5pt fav on a neutral field. My toss-up reference refers to the fact that Car is at home and Rivera’s home dog record makes the objective outcome in doubt. It’s a game where any result is plausible but nobody feels comfortable putting $ behind any one outcome. I certainly don’t...I did have a lot of confidence that Hou was going to win big last night tho!

 

As for this week, there are 5 home dogs and I don’t share your conclusion that all the visiting teams are clearly better: NYG, OAK are dogs and arguably have better talent but not playing to potential. JAX is home dog in London so not relevant. NE/Bills is the only clear one but at 14pts that is a scary game as only 30-40% fav cover those puts in the NFL.

 

As always, weird things and results occur each week in the NFL so it should be fun and good luck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't believe they were favored over the Saints last week!  That was a home game and this is on the road, but they are getting serious respect from Vegas.

 

I just hope we don't come out flat. I want to see ONE game where we just come out firing on all and continue till the end of the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • You wanted to be educated, get prepared… What @MillionDollarCam said about Kahlina and the defense, we’re currently tied for 2nd for fewest goals allowed, with a current streak of 4 straight shutouts.  Positional thoughts… GK - Already mentioned Kahlina DEFENDERS - Back four have been solid, even more the central defenders, Malanda and Privett.  We knew Malanda had potential and he’s living up to it so far this season.  Privett, even though solid last year, his potential was never clear, but this season he’s showing his true potential.   Fullbacks, Byrne and Uronen also solid.  Uronen currently injured (not sure how long) and hopefully not too long cause the current backup, Joao Pedro has been a liability these last 2 games when filling in.  Byrne’s backup, we still have Lindsey who fills in nicely as a sub or whenever starts to give Byrne some light rest.   Other backups, Diop and Tuiloma. Diop has yet to play this season I believe and Tuiloma, below average to average.  MIDFIELDERS - Ashley Westwood is top notch, nothing bad at all to say about the guy, imo.  Box to box midfielder, takes ownership of the defensive midfield area when opposition has the ball and support upfield when Charlotte is in control.  Diani seems like a similar player as Westwood, but obviously not as good.  Petkovic,  Bronico play a bit more upfield but Bronico being more defense focused.  Same as Arfield and Urso, Urso a bit more defense focused.  Then there’s Djaegere, who even though he’s the no. 10 and should be the playmaking outfielder, just looks lost out there most of the time, and unfortunately he’s been out there plenty.  Cambridge and Bender (injury) have to played so far this year. WINGERS - Because of injuries, Djaegere has been asked to play there plenty and I already mentioned my thoughts about him.  Maybe playing out of position is why he looks lost but he makes the simplest mistakes and awful passes at times.  Main guys are Vargas and Abada.  Abada has been bc of injury almost 2 months I think? I believe returns next game against Philly.  But when he’s in, oh man the attack level picks up a lotttt.  He knows how to time his runs perfectly to get open.  Vargas is a threat to get into the box and get open as well but sometimes he misses the easy passes (idk if it’s bc selfish or just doesn’t see it) and decides to shoot, needs to work on his vision.   FORWARDS - Swiderski is currently out on loan in Italy, but Italy could buy him at the end of the loan, which may happen. Iuri Tavares, back up, his natural position is forward but has been playing this season mostly on the wing since we lack players there and injuries.  Below average to average, has his moments winning one-on-one.  Even though he’s no longer on the team, he needs to be mentioned  Enzo Copetti…brought in as a DP who never played to that form last year but not really “bad” either. but oh man this year… Horrible, I don’t even know how else to put it.  After 2-3 horrible games to start the season, Dean Smith started to played the back up more and more   And that leads me to Patrick Agyemang.  When he started subbed in for Copetti, such a difference.  Easily better than Copetti, which is insane if you think about that he came through CLT through the draft last year (which usually doesn’t yield good players quick) and Copetti was a DP.  So that led to Charlotte selling Copetti, he went bye bye and now it’s Agyemang’s spot and deserved. So in summary: Defense: STRONG Midfield: Outside of Westwood, needs work..starting with getting Djaegere out and finding a true playmaker   Wings: Solid when healthy, need depth Forward: Agyemang average but still growing, and is just going to get better. With Jozwiak out during the past transfer window and now Copetti, there’s 2 DP slots open for Charlotte to get some real good players. And seeing how Dean Smith has evaluated players this season, I trust they’ll get the right guys. Dean Smith, he’s done amazing for what he’s been dealt with and he’s not afraid of playing younger players over experienced ones.
    • Oh no they finally changed Twitter to X on the browser
×
×
  • Create New...