Corona Virus

[BIGH2001]

8 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Wait, so the growth curve has been greatly reduced... yet social distancing hasn't been going that well. Interesting.

And you mean the growth curve reduced from the predictions that were wildly inaccurate to begin with. Remember the Imperial College model?

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

US military was almost not used in US outbreak so far... means US hospitals are handling it well.

Which was the whole point of social distancing and stay at home mandates all along. 

I just hope people actually understand this when stay at home mandates start getting lifted in the coming weeks. If they don't follow social distancing guidelines we'll see the second wave and everything will go right back to stay at home mandates again.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, BIGH2001 said:

Helped what? Do we have immunity? A vaccine?

[CBDellinger]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

we are so fuged.  

[BIGH2001]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

That's a cute response but it doesn't address the issue.  All of the things I've read suggest that the most effective strategy is suppression which is to stay under lockdown until a vaccine is developed. Because that's not possible, the next step is repeated mitigation which involves multiple lockdowns, on and off, until a vaccine is developed.  We've extended the curve but at what cost? We are going to go right back to lockdown when it flares up again?  

[BIGH2001]

Just now, CBDellinger said:

we are so fuged.  

Yes, our economy is fuged.  Do you have a job or a family? 

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, BIGH2001 said:

That's a cute response but it doesn't address the issue.  All of the things I've read suggest that the most effective strategy is suppression which is to stay under lockdown until a vaccine is developed. Because that's not possible, the next step is repeated mitigation which involves multiple lockdowns, on and off, until a vaccine is developed.  We've extended the curve but at what cost? We are going to go right back to lockdown when it flares up again?  

No. The stay at home orders were due to the transmission of the disease getting out of control because we waited too long to act. As the curve flattens over the coming days and significantly declines over coming weeks, you'll see stay at home orders start to lift. There will be a return to somewhat normalcy. The "somewhat" is in there because we will still need to follow social distancing protocols to prevent a second exponential rise in cases. If people follow those protocols, we can likely prevent any further stay at home mandates. But, the average person is really incredibly dumb and half of the people out there are even dumber than that... so, we'll see.

[CBDellinger]

3 minutes ago, BIGH2001 said:

Yes, our economy is fuged.  Do you have a job or a family? 

Own a business, have two kids and a wife and I would like to do this lock down thing one time.  So let’s do it right... even if it takes a little longer than we might prefer.  

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, BIGH2001 said:

Yes, our economy is fuged.  Do you have a job or a family? 

Meanwhile, in DC...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY

[BIGH2001]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

No. The stay at home orders were due to the transmission of the disease getting out of control because we waited too long to act. As the curve flattens over the coming days and significantly declines over coming weeks, you'll see stay at home orders start to lift. There will be a return to somewhat normalcy. The "somewhat" is in there because we will still need to follow social distancing protocols to prevent a second exponential rise in cases. If people follow those protocols, we can likely prevent any further stay at home mandates. But, the average person is really incredibly dumb and half of the people out there are even dumber than that... so, we'll see.

There's not really been high transmission outside of NYC, Detroit and New Orleans. Either we didn't act too late or there's something else going on.  I haven't really read about the hospitals being overwhelmed, most are operating under capacity right now and laying off workers. There are predictions out there (including the infamous IHME model) that assumed social distancing and they still went way overboard.  They have since significantly revised their projections. 

[Ja Rhule]

So big thing in US... all professional athletes are under contract and required to get paid during this outbreak.  For example... NFL team pays players on average of 170M per season (excluding staff).  There are 32 teams...  NFL might make no money but will require to pay salaries in billions.  That’s not sustainable. I know multiple soccer teams in Europe that have been around of almost century are going bankrupt due to player and staff salaries.

[BIGH2001]

4 minutes ago, CBDellinger said:

Own a business, have two kids and a wife and I would like to do this lock down thing one time.  So let’s do it right... even if it takes a little longer than we might prefer.  

How long are you willing to do it?

[CBDellinger]

Just now, BIGH2001 said:

How long are you willing to do it?

that’s a really good question.  I guess as long as it takes?  But there’s definitely a breaking point.

its a tough spot for all of us and I wanna get things back to where they were as much as anyone.  But not if it means stop and go stop and go... I fear that will be worse for the economy in the long run.
 

 

[BIGH2001]

13 minutes ago, CBDellinger said:

that’s a really good question.  I guess as long as it takes?  But there’s definitely a breaking point.

its a tough spot for all of us and I wanna get things back to where they were as much as anyone.  But not if it means stop and go stop and go... I fear that will be worse for the economy in the long run.
 

 

I don’t know if I trust anyone in charge to make the right decision on striking that balance.  I don’t know what kind of business you own but if it is public facing at all you are still going to have a large subset of the population who will be scared of their own shadow even after we are officially told we can go back to “normal.” I think that the media coverage of it has been over the top and fear mongering. Again, I get that we had to be warned so some of it was necessary but people have been given no hope. Its a dangerous thing.