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4 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Good point.

I see us likely getting 5-6 starters / key contributors.

Horn, 

Terrace OR Shi,

1-2 OL, 

Tremble,

Nixon,

& maybe the LS Fletcher

If that happens, it's a fantastic draft, but you are "counting" on a 5th rounder, three 6th rounders, an UDFA and two 3rd rounders. Even though last year's class was terrific, how many of them really contributed? Brown and Chinn. Roy got snaps mainly because Short went down. Pride was well, less than stellar and YGM played about 1/3 of the snaps, probably because Weatherly just plain sucked. Those 3 "contributed" but were JAG/JAG- level guys and got time because we had lost so many players. All that and it was still a really solid draft class, but the 3 top contributors were 1st and 2nd round picks, not day 3 guys.

We just need to temper our expectations. Even with trading down, 5 of starters/key contributors is a ridiculous draft, not what's expected.

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On 5/15/2021 at 6:45 PM, KB_fan said:

Hey y'all.  Been forever since I posted here.  Last football season too much of my spare time was focused on Covid  or politics. Football got squeezed out.

Don't really have anything insightful to contribute about rookie mini-camp, but so glad it's happening!!

Make sure to catch Matt Rhule's presser today (and yesterday was good too). He had some fascinating comments about sports science and player evaluation. Basically last year's lack of mini-camp etc. meant that they were still learning about players' abilities when the games counted. I believe it was a huge obstacle for a totally new staff. 

The evaluation process Rhule described today sounds really different from what we typically heard from Ron.  This was the best Rhule presser I've heard...he was just so focused and so beyond just normal coach-speak platitudes. Gave me a much better feel for him, and I liked what I heard.

 

Thought you left us KB. Glad I was wrong, welcome back.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, stbugs said:

If that happens, it's a fantastic draft, but you are "counting" on a 5th rounder, three 6th rounders, an UDFA and two 3rd rounders. Even though last year's class was terrific, how many of them really contributed? Brown and Chinn. Roy got snaps mainly because Short went down. Pride was well, less than stellar and YGM played about 1/3 of the snaps, probably because Weatherly just plain sucked. Those 3 "contributed" but were JAG/JAG- level guys and got time because we had lost so many players. All that and it was still a really solid draft class, but the 3 top contributors were 1st and 2nd round picks, not day 3 guys.

We just need to temper our expectations. Even with trading down, 5 of starters/key contributors is a ridiculous draft, not what's expected.

Expecting 5 or 6 starters is likely not realistic. It's also important to remember that building a team isn't only about one what they do their rookie year and team success isn't only about starters.

Players take time to develop. Smith wasn't Smith for about 3 years. Thomas Davis wasn't Thomas Davis for more than that. Olsen could have been labeled a JAG until about his 6th season. 

Attempting to make any point about Pride or YGM or any player after one year doesn't seem to come from any sensible understanding of how this actually works in reality.

Maybe if you are only thinking about this as a fantasy owner on a single year basis vs following a team over time?

Edited by Moo Daeng
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Posted (edited)

Definitely appreciate those encouraging us to have reasonable expectations of this draft class.

It is way too easy to get over-hyped about rookies this time of year, and I definitely can fall victim to that.

Along the same lines of thought, there was a good article in the Athletic today reviewing rookies contributions (based on Pro Football Reference AV metric) over the past 5 seasons.  19.1% of rookies played meaningful roles as defined by Approximate Value of 5 or higher.

So expecting 2-3 of the newbies to make a meaningful contribution is maybe much more realistic than the 5-6 guys I mentioned last night! (Though I do wonder whether rookie contribution numbers vary from rebuilding to veteran team. We have a lot of holes rookies could help fill. The Bucs or KC, not so much...)

I've started a new topic to discuss the article, but here's the link.

https://theathletic.com/2580954/2021/05/18/what-do-the-numbers-tell-us-about-reasonable-expectations-for-nfl-rookies?source=user-shared-article

 

Edited by KB_fan
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Moo Daeng said:

Expecting 5 or 6 starters is likely not realistic. It's also important to remember that building a team isn't only about one what they do their rookie year and team success isn't only about starters.

Players take time to develop. Smith wasn't Smith for about 3 years. Thomas Davis wasn't Thomas Davis for more than that. Olsen could have been labeled a JAG until about his 6th season. 

Attempting to make any point about Pride or YGM or any player after one year doesn't seem to come from any sensible understanding of how this actually works in reality.

Maybe if you are only thinking about this as a fantasy owner on a single year basis vs following a team over time?

Huh? When did I ever say anything about fantasy or that an NFL player is a one year career?

All I said was that I’ve seen people mention immediate impact from 5 to even 8 starters/key contributors from this draft. We had a ton of rookies playing last year but outside of Brown and Chinn, a lot of that was due to injuries and the pure numbers game since we had lost a ton of starters from 2019 (most of any team). That’s not the case this year as we brought in better FAs and Brown and Chinn are in place. Outside of Horn, we may not have a single other day 1 starter. Marshall will get a lot of snaps as WR 3 or 4 (wouldn’t shock me to be behind the other Moore for a bit). Other than that, maybe 1 OL will start. Anything beyond that is unrealistic without a rookie being way better than expected and blowing away a vet. Day 3 guys doing that are rare.

Edited by stbugs
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2 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Definitely appreciate those encouraging us to have reasonable expectations of this draft class.

It is way too easy to get over-hyped about rookies this time of year, and I definitely can fall victim to that.

Along the same lines of thought, there was a good article in the Athletic today reviewing rookies contributions (based on Pro Football Reference AV metric) over the past 5 seasons.  19.1% of rookies played meaningful roles as defined by Approximate Value of 5 or higher.

So expecting 2-3 of the newbies to make a meaningful contribution is maybe much more realistic than the 5-6 guys I mentioned last night! (Though I do wonder whether rookie contribution numbers vary from rebuilding to veteran team. We have a lot of holes rookies could help fill. The Bucs or KC, not so much...)

I've started a new topic to discuss the article, but here's the link.

https://theathletic.com/2580954/2021/05/18/what-do-the-numbers-tell-us-about-reasonable-expectations-for-nfl-rookies?source=user-shared-article

 

It’s good to be optimistic and if somehow we got that much contribution it’s either great or really bad. Either we hit on every pick or we had so many injuries and did terrible in FA that we have tons of holes. With Reddick, Jones, Moore, Elflein, Erving, Arnold and Darnold, we did plug a lot of holes. We don’t have anywhere near the amount of holes as we did last year that led Pride, YGM and Roy to see a decent amount of snaps and let Chinn and Brown slide in day 1. I see Horn absolutely as a day 1 starter. Marshall and Tremble will be out there but again, replacing Manhertz and some of Samuel (Moore will play a lot as WR3 as well) isn’t what I’d consider starting or a key contributor. Maybe those two combine to be a single key guy. Christensen is the wild card. The rest are really fighting to stay on the team and would be a surprise to have any impact day 1.

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19 hours ago, Mogwai89 said:

I doubt he will be Kittle but isn't it weird to down play him being a third round pick when the 49ers got Kittle in the 5th? 

Nah, but you and I know thats not the reason for Kittle comparison... I know kittle was injured last year, but he is a top 3 blocker and top 3 pass catcher. The compares are for shock/clicks/max hopuim not for college profiles. Kittle is like Tom brady in his rise to elite status, very very very rare path/outliner. But its not my style to poop on fans getting hype for a player, I just couldnt take any more of the "Kittle 2.0" fairy dust.

Here is a recent piece saying he has "superstar potential"(guess jags should have took him 1st overall..."

https://www.derp/2021/5/17/22440034/nfl-carolina-panthers-tommy-tremble-has-potential-to-be-next-superstar-tight-end-is-he-george-kittle

 

enough hopium to fuel all of Chicago... 

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