Josh Allen / Jalen Hurts comps

[Mr. Scot]

Talked a while back about Russell Wilson comps for Bryce Young, but Albert Breer had a little piece today about the numerous comps people were making to Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

MMQB for 4/24/23

Breer's take:

The Josh Allen comps you hear on quarterbacks are starting to get me a little annoyed. The Jalen Hurts ones, too, and that’s with the acknowledgment that in my overview of the 2023 quarterback class coming Tuesday, you’ll find a guy whose comp is, yup, Allen.

That said, here’s where I’m at on it …

Really, as I see it, Allen and Hurts give GMs and coaches cover to take chances on raw quarterbacks with skill sets that can be used creatively, which in turn buys them time to develop in the areas needed. Allen’s off-scheduling playmaking ability bought him time to tweak his mechanics and throwing efficiency, which made him more accurate. Hurts’s ability as a runner in an Oklahoma-style option game the Eagles fashioned for him bought him time to progress in throwing from the pocket in general and with anticipation in particular.

The truth, though, is those are difficult areas for any quarterback to improve, and, after I tweeted that fact, a quarterbacks coach who works with the elite guys from the time they’re teenagers reached out to echo the point I was making. And he mentioned the football adversity that both Allen and Hurts encountered on their way, which was part of their willingness, ability and relentless drive to keep developing.

Just think about it. Hurts started for two years for Alabama, guiding the Crimson Tide to consecutive CFP national title games, only to be benched at halftime of the second of those, watch his team win it all and then never start a game again at the school. He served as a backup at Alabama as a junior and resurfaced the year after at Oklahoma, starting there and playing well enough to get drafted in the second round. Allen, meanwhile, had to go the junior college route out of high school, then thrive at the first school that offered him, Wyoming.

Because those guys had to go through so much to get to the NFL, they were equipped to make it once they got there. And to think anyone else can is, well, unrealistic.

[ladypanther]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/21/nfl-draft-quarterback-comps/

In their attempts to project Allen, many scouts and analysts reached for a common tool: the player comparison. Allen was mostly likened to Carson Wentz (at the time a small-school success story) and Jake Locker (a historic top-10 bust).

Now, having piloted the Buffalo Bills’ rise from afterthought to contender, Allen has become a preferred talisman of quarterback-needy teams and draft experts. This year’s draft probably will feature four quarterbacks among the first dozen picks, perhaps even the first four. Two prospects, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson, have traits reminiscent of Allen’s: a dearth of college production coupled with mesmerizing size and athletic ability.

That Allen turned out to be nothing like Wentz or Locker has not deterred evaluators from using him as a tantalizing comparison point. Player comparisons are an embedded part of scouting reports, used to create mental frameworks. They provide comforting narratives, grounding unknown futures in the vibrant present. They also cloud and misguide, often creating false — but powerful and entrenched — impressions that can outweigh more objective measures.

Player comparisons can be particularly imprecise and misleading for quarterbacks, whose success hinges less on noticeable traits than unseen attributes. Players of similar physical makeup or even similar playing style may have nothing in common when it comes to mental processing or competitive charisma, and draft history is littered with comparisons that damaged the teams that fell for them. Zach Wilson became the No. 2 pick in 2021 in part because the off-balance throws he made at BYU reminded some of Patrick Mahomes.

Teams may be at risk of a similar mistake if they select Levis or Richardson with the belief they have found their version of Allen. The way Allen improved his accuracy while in the NFL is exceedingly rare, if not unprecedented. It is one thing to hope for that kind of success. It is another to bet on it. Comparing either player to Allen may be justification for mistaking an outlier for a lesson.

 

“When Drew Brees just got into the league, every undersized quarterback for the next 10 years, if you liked him, he was Drew Brees,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “And it turned out none of them was Drew Brees. He was a one of one.”

The flaw in using Brees’s height as a comparison point for projection should be self-evident; Brees was short, but his height was irrelevant to his success. He thrived because he overcame his height with a collection of desirable traits. Comparing a short quarterback to Brees just because he is short is less assessment than wish-casting.

 

[therealmjl]

Breaking: player comps are lazy and useless

Edited April 24, 2023 by therealmjl

[tukafan21]

1 minute ago, therealmjl said:

Breaking: player comps are lazy and useless

They're mostly just "this player physically looks like that player"

It's why you really never see comps of players of another color

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, therealmjl said:

Breaking: player comps are lazy and useless

That's not "breaking"

I've said before that I get the idea, but these have gotten out of hand. It's like you've gotta look for one, even if it's forced.

The biggest thing for me though is the idea that if this guy did it, then anybody else can do it. That's what Breer is arguing against.

[CanadianCat]

Hence the AR comps to Cam Newton...

 

Newton dominated in college. AR is just a big dude. Thats the end of that comparison. 

[ladypanther]

6 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

They're mostly just "this player physically looks like that player"

It's why you really never see comps of players of another color

From the same article I referenced above:

Trivial similarity creates the impression of meaningful similarity. NBA executive Daryl Morey famously told author Michael Lewis that he banned his scouting staff from comparing draft prospects to NBA players of the same race — and once he instituted that rule, scouts stopped making comparisons altogether. Without superficial prompting, the instinct to liken one player’s game to another’s ceased.T

[therealmjl]

20 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

Hence the AR comps to Cam Newton...

 

Newton dominated in college. AR is just a big dude. Thats the end of that comparison. 

Exactly. They are not comparable at all. One was the best player in college football, the other was not even close.

come get some size bros 

Edited April 24, 2023 by therealmjl