Barnwell trade value article

[ECHornet]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

As a good buddy of mine once said, "Potential just means you haven't done poo yet."

That is basically JC Horn. He has done almost nothing in the NFL.

I understand. I think he’ll have a long career in the NFL though. 
 

My hope is we decline his 5th year option and negotiate an extension that is fair to the team based on his lack of production and injury history.
 

3 years - 25mil and have him locked up through 2027 at a decent price. This is assuming he can come back and return to play this year and into 2024. 

[stratocatter]

It’s tough because similar things were said about CMC (to a much lesser degree) as we are saying about Horn. Now CMC is putting up MVP numbers, but he did get injured last game. Thomas Davis also couldn’t stay healthy until he could.

The business rewards successful prognostication. Most look at the past for clues myself included but the future doesn’t always go that way.  

I think I would tend to want to gamble on the player staying healthy if the physical skill level is still there. I think you will be rewarded enough times to make it worth it as long as you are right about the Talent level in the first place. You have to guess right still but if the odds favor guessing one way you will be doing that. 

And a big btw, that is the biggest thing that put me off of  Bryce Young. I don’t see talent commensurate with the investment. I’m not a coach or scout but I bet there are many of those  who would agree that he is a huge gamble.

Why make a huge gamble? Like reduce the situation to an all or nothing outcome? I could never see that for this player. And all I ever heard was basically “brain beats size and other major measureables”.

Different sport but Acuna in baseball, came back from a major injury lukewarm  Another year he was rolling. He was probably worth being patient with, but he as so obviously a major talent. 

[CRA]

7 minutes ago, stratocatter said:

It’s tough because similar things were said about CMC (to a much lesser degree) as we are saying about Horn. Now CMC is putting up MVP numbers, but he did get injured last game. Thomas Davis also couldn’t stay healthy until he could.

CMC suited up for every game his first 3 seasons.  He played RB.  And we turned him into a one man offense.   

Thomas Davis missed 2 games his first 4 seasons 

there was no concern about health going into their first contracts off their rookie years.  

Jeff Otah is the Horn comparison. Otah was dominant.   And Otah suited up more than Horn.   Betting on Otah would have been silly. 

[stratocatter]

I nessed up that post and the phone rang and … I think I meant to be quoting something but my edit window has closed…. Sorry. 

I do appreciate the Otah distinction. He sort of still fits into being worth the gamble as long as you are plying the same values across the board. More win than lose for your speculations and you could win the war.

[CRA]

4 minutes ago, stratocatter said:

I nessed up that post and the phone rang and … I think I meant to be quoting something but my edit window has closed…. Sorry. 

I do appreciate the Otah distinction. He sort of still fits into being worth the gamble as long as you are plying the same values across the board. More win than lose for your speculations and you could win the war.

I’m largely a pass on Horn because I don’t have faith in the Panthers to not overpay him with a bad contract.   I mean, a good deal would be fine but I have no faith in Carolina to make that happen. 

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, ECHornet said:

I understand. I think he’ll have a long career in the NFL though. 
 

My hope is we decline his 5th year option and negotiate an extension that is fair to the team based on his lack of production and injury history.
 

3 years - 25mil and have him locked up through 2027 at a decent price. This is assuming he can come back and return to play this year and into 2024. 

I hope it works out but it's trending pretty heavily towards "body not made for the NFL." 

It just is what it is. He wasn't a terribly injury prone guy in college so it's hard to know what to say about it all. I was more of a Surtain guy if we went corner so that hurts some.

In the end, I didn't expect for his career to basically be completely derailed by injuries. 

It just is what it is.