Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Setting Realistic Expectations: Panthers 2010 & solving the riddle: 2013.(LONG)

PantherFanForLife

By PantherFanForLife,
in Carolina Panthers

Recommended Posts

PantherFanForLife Newbie

PantherFanForLife

Posted
Posted

OK guys. I need some help completing this puzzle, of what's been going on with the Panthers for the past couple of years, what's going on now, what we should realistically expect out of our team this year, and into the future.

2009 : Julius Peppers publicly states he wants to be released/ no longer wants to play for the Panthers.

On the surface: Traitor. Greed. Etc.

Reading between the lines: Lockout talk begins for 2011. Internally the players find out Richardson plans on releasing high paid players, and preparing a team re-building process that could last 3 years including the lockout. JP wants money before the lockout and wants to play on a team that gives him a chance to win a SB NOW before he gets too old.

2009 : Jake Delhomme gets a 4 year contract extension, Fox still sticks with him, after an abysmal playoff loss at home.

On the surface: Incredible. WTF?

Reading between the lines: No other option at the time? Was Jake's new contract supposed to be the transition period to the new team rebuilt under Fox? Jake would have another go in 09 & 2010(with new rookie watching) sit out in 2011 during lockout hand over reigns for 2012. Retire as Panther at the end of 2012 season in 2013?

2010 : Jake Delhomme gets released and signs 2 year contract with the Browns. Matt Moore takes over and finishes '09 season strong.

On the surface: Couldn't cut it with the Panthers and Browns only team that would sign him as starter.

Reading Between the Lines: There is no reading between the lines there, but maybe more to this story. Was this the point where Richardson decided that Fox would not get to re-build this team? Realized Matt could accomplish the same task as Jake for a lot cheaper? See below.

2010 : Richardson tells Fox he can cancel out the last year of his contract and leave. The Browns show interest in Fox but no deal made.

On the surface: Just what it says.

Reading between the lines: John Fox may still end up with the Browns, and reunite with Jake Delhomme. Part of the plan? Did Eric Mangini, the Browns' current coach refuse to leave, and Fox couldn't go yet?

Extended: Why would Mr. Richardson do that to Fox? He wanted him out this year and it kind of makes sense. We are almost certainly looking at a new coach. When a team gets a new coach, rarely does that coach do something with a team his first year and needs at least a year to get settled in. Had we gotten a new coach this year, that new coach could have immediatelly began the rebuilding process. He will be far below the next salary cap and gets to draft his own players. With Fox leaving after this year, it kind of throws a wrench in the plan, and postpones the process by one year minimum. The next draft may still go to the new coach because the 2011 draft will likely be postponed. I hope so. If not, our team re-building process may last a minimum of 3 years including this year, the lockout and the first year of the new coach: Panthers 2012.

2010: Panthers release other high paid veterans. Keep the young and cheap.

On the surface: Jerry Richardson is cheap and greedy. He is loyal to the NFL and other NFL owners. Other owners are still paying.

Reading Between the lines: This is a business, and all owners want what they want. Jerry Richardson is simply preparing for the future. While other teams were loaded with players coaches with 4 year contracts and had a realistic shot at the SB with just a few free agency additions, we were not. With a lockout and new coach on the horizon, our veterans would be too old on the other side of the lockout, cost Richardson money during a year where he may not make money, had no chance at a SB before they retire, and the new coach would have a salary cap to deal with, as well as more replacements to deal with. Lockout or no lockout this was the correct move to prepare the team for a new coach.

2010: Matt Moore benched after 2 games. Jimmy Clausen announced as starter.

On the surface: Matt can't cut it. Fox wants to win during his contract year. Clausen rules!

Reading Between the lines: Matt didn't perform nearly as bad as it looked. Matt was supposed to have this season and Jimmy learn. Richardson wanted to demonstrate you can still have a decent season without "over paying" for players but things started off going south really fast. This team was obviously not built to win a Superbowl this year, but fans want to see us win. Fox needs to look good for other prospects. We also need to see if Clausen is the guy we will build our team around. Matt gets benched earlier than a typical QB would get benched compared to the mistakes he had. Jimmy was a college star and will sell tickets on an 0-2, 0-3 team where as Matt will not.

Realistic Expectations for Panthers: If you look at the way things have unfolded guys, it's obvious this team was not built nor expected to win a Superbowl this year. I don't want to say throw away season, because this season is very important to the future of the franchise. But did Fox really tell his guys at the end of training camp "we're making a run for the SB this year!" ? Probably not. Does that mean they are not going to try to win? I don't think so. Not at all. But to put things in perspective, considering the circumstances here's what we got:

Finishing above 500(10-6 or higher): The equivalent of us winning the Superbowl. Chances? The same as a strong Panthers team or any team winning a Superbowl. Small. I say about 6%. John Fox would be a genius aka why are we getting rid of him?

Finishing around 500(8-8): Considering we are 0-2, it's the equivalent of us making the playoffs any other year. Chances? I say about 10-20%. John Fox is a great coach and can still churn out a great season. Other teams would be happy to have him.

Finishing under 500: Dissapointing, but not completely unexpected. Chances? 50%. It's 50-50 at this point considering our schedule if you ask me. John Fox is exactly the guy we thought he was.

Finishing 0-16 to 3-12: Very dissapointing. We throw it away for draft picks. This team can win games and if we finish that way it's only because we want high draft pics. With Fox wanting to look good and Richardson showing you can still win with this model, don't expect this unless we start 0-5 or 0 - 6. Chances? Small. I say 6%.

Making the playoffs and winning a playoff game: INCREDIBLE! TOTALLY AMAZING! John Fox is the new Billichick. Clausen has incredible rookie season. Richardson will be begging Fox to rebuild his team. Chances? 3%-6%.

Making/winning the Superbowl: Speachless. Crying. John Fox makes Billichick his student. Clausen is Joe Montana. Lafell is Randy Moss. Steve Smith is...well Steve Smith. Chances? Well if we were an average team, we would have a 3% chance like everyone else. Considering our circumstances, that falls somewhere between 0%-3%.

The victim: Steve Smith.

In all of this Steve Smith is the biggest loser. The only major superstar veteran left on this team that will not be the same on the other side of the lockout. With him not having a great QB and another #2 receiver for most of his career and even though now he may possibly have that in Clausen, he still has no team for possibly another 2 years. He will be too old before he ever gets the chance to win a Superbowl with the Panthers. One of the greatest receivers that deserves a ring to never get one? Sad but probably true unless there is no lockout next year, and we trade him...or a miracle happens this year.

Panthers 2012: It may seem early to talk about it, but if there is a lockout in 2011 who will still be here on the other side? That's the team we are now building for guys! That is "next year's" team.

-If Clausen is the real deal, I say he's probably the only one that can be sure of that and Kasey.

-Any new rookies that make a name for themselves this year.

-J Stew because D Will will probably get traded before him

Who else? You tell me.

Conclusion: So there you have it. Broken down the best I could. Please help me with what I missed. With or without a lockout I think Richardson deffinitley put this franchise in a good position to be re-built under a new coach. Maybe at some point Fox was going to get that shot but now doesn't look like it. And while it's hard to admitt it, I say savor any win we get this year and keep things in perspective the next time you trash our team and players on Sunday after a loss. It is what it is. Don't sweat the QB changes and all that. If you look at things in perspective and for what they are you can still enjoy this Panther season, even if we were never really made to contend for a Superbowl.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PantherFanForLife Newbie

PantherFanForLife

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Lockout will be in 2011, play will resume in 2012. 2013 will be two years AD (After Death of NFL marketing machine). Baseball will have been restored as the great American Pastime, and we'll all be discussing the Braves and Fantasy Baseball.

Thanks, I knew that, but missed it. I will edit.

Could a mod chance my title to 2012 instead of 2013 please?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
House Newbie

House

Posted
Posted

Lockout will not happen. Two teams have voted unanimously to decertify the union in case a CBA is not agreed upon in time. It is looking like all of the players are on board with this if need be, I think that Goodell and the owners though Maurice Smith wouldn't let it happen since there is a good chance he will not be re-elected as the head of the NFLPA.

If the union is decertified then owners can not lockout the players without subjecting themselves to tons of lawsuits. Also, watch for how the unions lawsuit on the tv deal money plays out, if the union wins that one and the money goes into limbo then a CBA WILL get done, pronto.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PantherFanForLife Newbie

PantherFanForLife

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Lockout will not happen. Two teams have voted unanimously to decertify the union in case a CBA is not agreed upon in time. It is looking like all of the players are on board with this if need be, I think that Goodell and the owners though Maurice Smith wouldn't let it happen since there is a good chance he will not be re-elected as the head of the NFLPA.

If the union is decertified then owners can not lockout the players without subjecting themselves to tons of lawsuits. Also, watch for how the unions lawsuit on the tv deal money plays out, if the union wins that one and the money goes into limbo then a CBA WILL get done, pronto.

I was reading about that, but doesn't that simply mean that players have a chance to sue the owners and a lockout could still continue?

If there is no lockout we are still in a great position and everything remains on course but moves up one year. If there's no lockout we REALLY need to get that new coach here soon, so he can have a say on who to draft in 2011.

At the very least I have a feeling the 2011 draft will be delayed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
blackcatgrowl Newbie

blackcatgrowl

Posted
Posted

Good post! I agree with almost everything you've put down (read my Panther's prediction sig).

However, I don't agree with JR's handling of the club for 2010.

There was no cap. Even if there is a lockout, one or two year contracts could have, and have been in other teams, been offered if the FO was willing to pay the dough. While true JR might be setting us up for future success in 2011 (or 12 if there is a lockout), I believe he still could have done it and not sacrificed 2010. The moves this year reek of banking the payroll instead of dishing it out.

I think it's gonna bite him in the ass when he fails to sell out his first game in a LONG time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PantherFanForLife Newbie

PantherFanForLife

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Interesting read, good points on most of it.

I've thought since the vetern purge started that the whole point of it was too

1. Save money for this season and the lockout

2. set the team up for the future

Yes I think so too. And I think at some point Fox was supposed to get that shot to build his team.

I was thinking along the lines of Richardson being greedy myself, but then I started looking a little deeper and that doesn't look to be the case. When Fox first came here, we had salary cap issues the next year. Richardson deffinitley let him buy everything he could.

The only difference is Richardson wants the next staff to have that power, not Fox. Smart move if he really doesn't plan on having Fox to stick around.

And in the end I happen to agree with the owners. We spend a lot of money but the best we could end up getting was one winning season followed by an 8-8 season. Why spend incredible amounts of money for that if we can get close to 8-8 without doing it.

And why should Sam Bradford make nearly as much as Tom Brady? Doesn't make sense for rookies to make that much money. I think the Panthers is the model team for the "new NFL team model". And being that we will look great on the other side of this new deal or lockout.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
House Newbie

House

Posted
Posted

I'm not going to go into nearly as much detail as you but I will tell you were you are right and wrong in a timely fashion.

Peppers wanted out because he blamed Fox and Turdo for the lack of sacks that he got on a yearly basis. Don't know that that was logical thinking on his part but someone was in his ear telling him this and he bought it. That was the reason he originally wanted to go to a 3-4 D, no one was willing to jump on that pony so he went to the highest bidder outside of Carolina.

Jake got the extension as a show of faith and because HURNEY and Fox believed that he would overcome his AZ game issues. He did not. Releasing him saved Jerry $0 because of the poison pill that stated he would be paid $12 million irregardless of whether he was a Panther. He was dropped to make way for Moore.

Starting Clausen at this point is probably about 80% JR's idea. Yes, Moore has played that poorly and the Offense does need a spark. JR also needs to put butts in the seats and no one can do that better than Clausen, at least until the bye week. If he is not playing well at that point then people will stop coming again. Moore may have gotten one more week of being the starter in other conditions but that is probably about it, one more week.

JR has set up this team to be very good in the future, we will most likely see a new coach, and more teams than the Browns are interested in Fox.

SS is not getting f**ked in this deal, he is making bank. Yes, he deserves a SB but a lot of great players have and never won one.

We will probably go 8-8 or slightly worse unless Clausen is the real deal, then we might see 9-7.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
Posted

I think it's gonna bite him in the ass when he fails to sell out his first game in a LONG time.

It doesn't bother him at all, not one bit.

Losing 100 ticket sales at $30 a piece isn't a decimal point compared to TV revenue.

But its even less material that the amount of money JR stands to make out a lockout. He is giving himself a really big raise soon. And that raise can be in 2012 because he is getting paid in 2011 whether we play or not

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

×
×
  • Create New...