The article to end all articles on why Luck will/will not declare

[Gazi]

Economics could force Luck’s hand

OK, we’ll tell him to go pro and donate half the excess he makes to Stanford,” Hennessy said after being told that coming back to school next season could cost Luck, who many project to be the No. 1 overall NFL draft pick, a difference of up to $60 million if the league has its way. Give Hennessy, a lifetime academic, credit: In the face of overwhelming logic that likely means an end to the greatest quarterback-coach combination in his school’s history, Hennessy came up with a quick, humorous and almost plausible solution. More important, Hennessy didn’t try to sell a bill of goods. There was no lame, pretentious discussion of the higher ideals of pursuing a great education. There was no haughty tone with Hennessy looking down his nose at the NFL and its ruffian ways. Hennessey came to pretty much the same conclusion that Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway, another Stanford man and a former No. 1 overall pick, came to after watching Luck and the No. 4 Cardinal dissect Virginia Tech 40-12 on Monday night in the Orange Bowl.

The question now is how Luck will deal with the temptations of turning pro. Sometimes, there’s a financial bottom line that overcomes high ideals. Luck, who combined with likely soon-to-be-gone head coach Jim Harbaugh to take Stanford to unimaginable heights, could make life-changing money if he turns pro in the next couple of weeks. If he waits one more year (as Stanford fans in attendance pleaded with him to do), he still stands to make good money.

But not life-changing money.

Again, the difference between Luck coming out of school now and waiting a year could be as high as $63 million and might easily be $40 million. Thus, even for university presidents and supporters who have vested interest in Stanford football, there really is no choice about what to say to this talented young man:

Goodbye. Good Luck. It has been fun.

more... much more.. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=jc-luckdecision010411

[Gazi]

it's a no brainer..

In a Dec. 17 op-ed piece in The Washington Post, Green Bay Packers president/CEO Mark Murphy threw out the concept of the No. 1 pick getting a five-year deal worth a maximum of $15 million with $5 million guaranteed. Nice money, but it pales in comparison to the six-year, $78 million contract, including $50 million guaranteed, that Sam Bradford(notes) got as the No. 1 pick of the St. Louis Rams in the 2010 draft.

Based on Murphy’s projections, Luck stands to lose $63 million on the overall contract and $45 million on the guarantee if a slotting system or rookie scale similar to the NBA before his first deal. The final difference depends on a number of factors, but there is no question that the loss is going to be steep, easily in the range of $30-$40 million.

While the league and the union could change the rules for the upcoming draft and begin slotting this year, there remains a good chance that no agreement will be reached in time and the system will continue for one more year.

But only one more year, tops.

[grateflday]

Even if we assume there IS a rookie wage scale.... we dont know the difference between #1, to #2, #3 and so forth. So being that you are definately going to be #1 - waiting with a rookie scale in place can STILL cost you alot of money if you end up dropping.

[Proudiddy]

I was also thinking, what does he have to lose... if it's the education he wants and the college lifestyle vs the money and challenge of being a pro , come out and it's a win-win.

If you come out, you're drafted #1 and get PAID, CBA is reached, football is business as usual pursue your degree as you go or in the off-seasons.

If you come out and you're drafted but there is a work stoppage, you can just go back to Stanford and continue taking classes until a new CBA is in place...

At least that's how it plays out in my head - like he's doing us a favor.

[CatMan72]

It's my understanding that the rookie wage scale is one of the few things the players and owners agree on and will be part of the new CBA and the current CBA expires 3/1 so when Luck does sign a contract it will be under the new CBA, with a rookie wage scale...

[Cyclonus]

It's my understanding that the rookie wage scale is one of the few things the players and owners agree on and will be part of the new CBA and the current CBA expires 3/1 so when Luck does sign a contract it will be under the new CBA, with a rookie wage scale...

It's my understanding that the new rookie wage scale would be implemented in 2012.

[Proudiddy]

It's my understanding that the rookie wage scale is one of the few things the players and owners agree on and will be part of the new CBA and the current CBA expires 3/1 so when Luck does sign a contract it will be under the new CBA, with a rookie wage scale...

and this is a concern...

I thought I read somewhere before that this year's #1 pick would be under the new CBA and will have a slotted assigned salary. Yet I've also heard credible sources say otherwise, so does anyone know?

[CatMan72]

It's my understanding that the new rookie wage scale would be implemented in 2012.

Let's hope so, that would make it a no-brainer for Luck to come out this year.

[CatMan72]

I guess you could also argue that it's uncertain if a rookie wage scale will apply to this year's draft picks, but you can be almost certain it will apply to next year's picks, so a betting man would come out this year.

[Gazi]

This is the last year for rookie to get paid like veterans. It's really a no brainer for him to declare.

[unicar15]

Dumb if he doesn't

[HSCBandit07]

So, currently is there some kind of minimum salary that we would have to offer Luck as he is the #1 pick? I really can't see Jerry giving out anywhere near Bradford type compensation. Unless Richardson has to pay loads of cash to Luck, I don't see him doing it.

[PantherFanForLife]

Pretty much my thoughts too.

And come on folks. Do I need to remind everyone where Luck goes to school?

If he doesn't go pro, what's the point of graduating anyway? He would be the biggest idiot that would have ever gone to Stanford. I don't think Luck is an idiot though.

[Gazi]

So, currently is there some kind of minimum salary that we would have to offer Luck as he is the #1 pick? I really can't see Jerry giving out anywhere near Bradford type compensation. Unless Richardson has to pay loads of cash to Luck, I don't see him doing it.

The guy who paid Sean Gilbert all that money and is paying a Cleveland QB 12 million of his own money? He's not cheap. He'll get Stafford type money