A good and fair article about 1st round QB's

[TheRealDeal]

the biggest point being that QBs taken in the first are more likely to be franchise QBs than any other round.

That's a fair statement but saying the "Bust Rate" for QBs in the second round is 90% is ridiculous. Bust Rate? Really?

Even then it would take 15 Clausen busts (Conservatively) to make 1 Cam Newton Bust in terms of money and effect on a franchise.

My whole point is making a list of all QBs drafted and saying they are busts if they aren't starters is ludicrous. Sean Canfield and Jim Sorgi are busts because they didn't overtake Brees and Manning.

[chef17]

You really put Armanti on there as a QB? Really?

All that list shows is that some teams drafted backup QBs and people here are calling them busts.

Is Dan LeFevour the franchise in Chicago? Is he a bust if he isn't?

This. Most of those guys were drafted as backups, not Franchise guys. So to consider them "bust" is really skewing stats. Also, considering everyone says it takes 3 years for a QB to develop, including 2010 and 2009 guys further skews it.

[TheRealDeal]

Again thank you for pointing out these small technicalities while whiffing on the major point. :)

I got the major point just the reasoning you used to get there is stupid. More often than not, better players get drafted in the first round.

It's not a difficult concept.

The thing that some of you don't get is that just because you reach and force yourself to take someone in the first (in this case at the first pick) doesn't make that player a traditional "First round talent" and it doesn't change their bust rate.

If a player has second round talent that gets drafted in the first, they still have a second round bust rate since the bust rate is not based on round but talent. Likewise, if a player is top 20 talent but gets drafted #1, they don't lower their bust rate, it stays the same as all the other people that were drafted at #20 in the past.

Fug that's hard to explain and it probably doesn't make any sense but if you try and understand it you will.

[Ricky Spanish]

That's a fair statement but saying the "Bust Rate" for QBs in the second round is 90% is ridiculous. Bust Rate? Really?

Even then it would take 15 Clausen busts (Conservatively) to make 1 Cam Newton Bust in terms of money and effect on a franchise.

My whole point is making a list of all QBs drafted and saying they are busts if they aren't starters is ludicrous. Sean Canfield and Jim Sorgi are busts because they didn't overtake Brees and Manning.

i gotchya now, it is unfair to call any player drafted in the later rounds a bust.

[TheRealDeal]

i gotchya now, it is unfair to call any player drafted in the later rounds a bust.

No but if you are drafted to fill a backup role and aren't expected to compete, how can you be a bust?

Is Pike a bust? Is Sorgi?

[teeray]

This. Most of those guys were drafted as backups, not Franchise guys. So to consider them "bust" is really skewing stats. Also, considering everyone says it takes 3 years for a QB to develop, including 2010 and 2009 guys further skews it.

Jesus. You guys are missing the point. Whether these guys are "busts" or not in you minds is irrelevant. :banghead:

The point is, if you want a QB that is going to be a franchise guy it is likely going to have to be done in the first round. Otherwise, you aren't addressing the problem and your team will never be perennial Super Bowl contenders. You will be exactly what we are. A team that is mediocre, will pop up in the playoffs every once in a while, but never a serious franchise. Unless you get super lucky and land a Tom Brady. Which will happen around 5% of the time.

That is what passing on guys every year,or hoping to trade away your future for a back up QB that might be good, does for a franchise.

That is exactly why Rivera addressed the QB position in his interview. The status quo doesn't work.

[chef17]

Jesus. You guys are missing the point. Whether these guys are "busts" or not in you minds is irrelevant. :banghead:

The point is, if you want a QB that is going to be a franchise guy it is likely going to have to be done in the first round. Otherwise, you aren't addressing the problem and your team will never be perennial Super Bowl contenders. You will be exactly what we are. A team that is mediocre, will pop up in the playoffs every once in a while, but never a serious franchise.

That is what passing on guys every year,or hoping to trade away your future for a back up QB that might be good, does for a franchise.

That is exactly why Rivera addressed the QB position in his interview. The status quo doesn't work.

No I understand the point. But using guys drafted to be backups doesn't prove the point. And again, it's too early to include the guys from the 2010 and 2009 draft.

[CRA]

No but if you are drafted to fill a backup role and aren't expected to compete, how can you be a bust?

Is Pike a bust? Is Sorgi?

Pike isn't a bust. He was drafted in the 6th round....which means it is safe to assume he might not even be on a NFL roster after a couple seasons. I don't think many QBs are drafted to be backups. Some are drafted to see if the next Tom Brady is stumbled upon.

[teeray]

I got the major point just the reasoning you used to get there is stupid. More often than not, better players get drafted in the first round.

It's not a difficult concept.

The thing that some of you don't get is that just because you reach and force yourself to take someone in the first (in this case at the first pick) doesn't make that player a traditional "First round talent" and it doesn't change their bust rate.

If a player has second round talent that gets drafted in the first, they still have a second round bust rate since the bust rate is not based on round but talent. Likewise, if a player is top 20 talent but gets drafted #1, they don't lower their bust rate, it stays the same as all the other people that were drafted at #20 in the past.

Fug that's hard to explain and it probably doesn't make any sense but if you try and understand it you will.

What round your talent is is subjective and changes with every person you talk to so you can't quantify what round talent your are only what round you were taken at.

Plus generally speaking there isn't a large discrepancy of people who were taken 1-10 an 11-20 in regards to a "bust" rate. So basically if you are a top 15 talent at QB you have an equal chance to be a franchise QB no matter if you are drafted #1 or #20 . In other words, in regards to top 20 talent at QB you can justify taking them 1 because they still have a good chance to be franchise QB's.

Therefore if you are a top 15 player there is no reason you couldn't be selected #1 if that team thinks you will can be a franchise QB. Especially in an area of desperate need

[teeray]

No I understand the point. But using guys drafted to be backups doesn't prove the point. And again, it's too early to include the guys from the 2010 and 2009 draft.

Okay, how about this. Guys drafted in the second round aren't drafted to be backups. They have a 90% fail rate. Draft a QB in the fuggin first round or just be average at best. Unless you get lucky.:cuss:

[mav1234]

Why do people think that if we drafted a qb in the third we'd be trying to make him our franchise guy out of the gate? Why can't he just be a player we think is an upgrade over what we have and want to see what he can do in camp?

[chef17]

Okay, how about this. Guys drafted in the second round aren't drafted to be backups. They have a 90% fail rate. Draft a QB in the fuggin first round or just be average at best. Unless you get lucky.:cuss:

2008

ROUND 2: Brian Brohm, Packers (56),

They can be :D

[teeray]

Why do people think that if we drafted a qb in the third we'd be trying to make him our franchise guy out of the gate? Why can't he just be a player we think is an upgrade over what we have and want to see what he can do in camp?

Well Mav according to these guys the only reason you draft QB's in the third round is so they can be backups. These guys aren't drafted to ever be starters or franchise QB's. Just to be roster fillers that can be cut later on down the road.

[mav1234]

Well Mav according to these guys the only reason you draft QB's in the third round is so they can be backups. These guys aren't drafted to ever be starters or franchise QB's. Just to be roster fillers that can be cut later on down the road.

Backups can also translate into developments for the future.