2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

[cranky]

9 hours ago, Thorrez said:

Even the most Young super fans are not predicting a ceiling above top 10-12, and that will not nearly cut it. 

Why do you say that. What leads you to think that we, as supporters, think his ceiling is 10-12. That's a ridiculous assumption on your part.

The Seahawks won the SB with Darnold passing for 25 TD's, 14 Ints with a 99.1 rating for the season. 

The Panthers with Young were at 23 TD's, 11 Ints and a 78.8 rating for the season. Not that far off.

The problem with all the Young discourse around here is the assumption that the QB is the sole determining factor for a teams success. That just isn't true and it's certainly not how Morgan and Tilis are building the Panthers. 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

https://wfnz.com/schedule/the-clubhouse-with-kyle-bailey/

Starts around 1100

I am not sure how connected Al Wallace is but he thinks bryce is going to get paid (50+) and it may happen within the first 4 games of this season.   He thinks the offense looked good last season.  Not really sure what the hell he was watching.

Honestly, I'll probably just tap out if it happens. Tune in again some time down the road if we ever jerk our head out of our ass as a franchise. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

18 minutes ago, cranky said:

Why do you say that. What leads you to think that we, as supporters, think his ceiling is 10-12. That's a ridiculous assumption on your part.

The Seahawks won the SB with Darnold passing for 25 TD's, 14 Ints with a 99.1 rating for the season. 

The Panthers with Young were at 23 TD's, 11 Ints and a 78.8 rating for the season. Not that far off.

The problem with all the Young discourse around here is the assumption that the QB is the sole determining factor for a teams success. That just isn't true and it's certainly not how Morgan and Tilis are building the Panthers. 

Youre leaving off a very key stat. Darnold threw for over 4k yards last year. That's 1k yards more than Bryce. That's driving an offense and showing an ability to push the ball down field. Bryce hasn't shown he can do that with any type of consistency. Has he had moments, yes. But overall, our offense under his control really struggles. 

We had 30 4th down attempts last year, and Bryce threw for just over 200 yards and 3 TDs on 4th down. That means he had just 2800 yards downs 1-3 with 20 TDs for the season. That's terrible for a starting QB. That backup level performance. 

I don't even care that it's Bryce Young putting up these stats. It's our immense dedication to any QB that's doing this poorly overall and is an uncontested entrenched starter and people are talking franchise QB extension. 

Brissett last year was a 6m per season backup and if his starts we're averaged over 16 games, he would have had 4400/30 and 13. I'd be good with paying for those numbers. Those numbers show an offense that can move with a QB. We just don't get that from our QB right now. 

This isn't hate on Bryce. Our level of play from the most impactful position on the field has been bad. That has to change if we ever want to be serious about winning in Carolina. You cannot designate 50m plus per season to receive that level of performance. It will be a cap crushing move. 

Edited yesterday at 03:55 PM by SmokinwithWilly

[MHS831]

15 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If we pay Bryce like a franchise QB we're completely and utterly buttfuged.

I can't think of one team that has paid a mediocre QB the obligatory $50m and then became a dynasty.  To me, it is like locking in hopes of mediocrity.  If you do not have a franchise, championship qb by year 5, move on.  I have no issues with bringing in damaged goods as backups and continuing to draft QBs until you hit jackpot, but we have been protecting Bryce from competition and babying him as he played below average since he was drafted.  I don't get it.  

[mrcompletely11]

32 minutes ago, cranky said:

Why do you say that. What leads you to think that we, as supporters, think his ceiling is 10-12. That's a ridiculous assumption on your part.

The Seahawks won the SB with Darnold passing for 25 TD's, 14 Ints with a 99.1 rating for the season. 

The Panthers with Young were at 23 TD's, 11 Ints and a 78.8 rating for the season. Not that far off.

The problem with all the Young discourse around here is the assumption that the QB is the sole determining factor for a teams success. That just isn't true and it's certainly not how Morgan and Tilis are building the Panthers. 

Never say never, but BY will never be a top 10 qb by any fuging metric.  If one cannot see after 3 years how unbelievably limited he is as a player then brother that is on you solely.    his career avg per pass is 6 fuging yards which is probably the worst over 3 years.   Which with that data tells me he fuging cannot see the field and misses on just about everything intermediate to long.

 

Any other competent franchise would have either moved on or brought in legit competition but we have a meddling owner that is in love with him for some God knows reason

[LinvilleGorge]

5 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I can't think of one team that has paid a mediocre QB the obligatory $50m and then became a dynasty.  To me, it is like locking in hopes of mediocrity.  If you do not have a franchise, championship qb by year 5, move on.  I have no issues with bringing in damaged goods as backups and continuing to draft QBs until you hit jackpot, but we have been protecting Bryce from competition and babying him as he played below average since he was drafted.  I don't get it.  

Mediocrity becomes your ceiling. You absolutely cannot saddle yourself to paying a Bryce Young level QB. He's a backup/replacement level starter. 

[LinvilleGorge]

41 minutes ago, cranky said:

Why do you say that. What leads you to think that we, as supporters, think his ceiling is 10-12. That's a ridiculous assumption on your part.

The Seahawks won the SB with Darnold passing for 25 TD's, 14 Ints with a 99.1 rating for the season. 

The Panthers with Young were at 23 TD's, 11 Ints and a 78.8 rating for the season. Not that far off.

The problem with all the Young discourse around here is the assumption that the QB is the sole determining factor for a teams success. That just isn't true and it's certainly not how Morgan and Tilis are building the Panthers. 

You're delusional if you think he has top 10-12 potential. Darnold always had the high level physical skills that Bryce utterly lacks, he just struggles with turnovers when asked to try to carry an offense. He landed in an ideal situation where he was basically just asked to be a high level game manager. 

The problem with the few remaining Bryce stans is that they just can't accept that Bryce is a massive limiting factor to an NFL offense.

[cranky]

1 hour ago, cranky said:

Why do you say that. What leads you to think that we, as supporters, think his ceiling is 10-12. That's a ridiculous assumption on your part.

The Seahawks won the SB with Darnold passing for 25 TD's, 14 Ints with a 99.1 rating for the season. 

The Panthers with Young were at 23 TD's, 11 Ints and a 78.8 rating for the season. Not that far off.

The problem with all the Young discourse around here is the assumption that the QB is the sole determining factor for a teams success. That just isn't true and it's certainly not how Morgan and Tilis are building the Panthers. 

That's suppose to be a 87.8 rating for Young.

[cranky]

53 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

You're delusional if you think he has top 10-12 potential. Darnold always had the high level physical skills that Bryce utterly lacks, he just struggles with turnovers when asked to try to carry an offense. He landed in an ideal situation where he was basically just asked to be a high level game manager. 

The problem with the few remaining Bryce stans is that they just can't accept that Bryce is a massive limiting factor to an NFL offense.

Are we reading that statement the same? Are you reading it as a top 10-12 rated QB? I read it as winning 10-12 games per year. Seems odd to put someone in a top 12 rating.

So you are saying that playing a "high level game manager" type role can win a SB. Sounds like what the Panthers are trying to build.

Anyway, regardless, I think Young should be paid according to his performance. Do I think he deserves to be paid as a top 10 QB even if he has a great 4th season - no. Top 10 pay requires more than trending in the right direction capped with one good season. I do believe he will play well and will be signed to a long term deal (3 years anyway) but not with a massive contract. 

[cranky]

1 hour ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Youre leaving off a very key stat. Darnold threw for over 4k yards last year. That's 1k yards more than Bryce. That's driving an offense and showing an ability to push the ball down field. Bryce hasn't shown he can do that with any type of consistency. Has he had moments, yes. But overall, our offense under his control really struggles. 

You are right saying Brissett would have passed for 4000 if he had played 17 instead of 12 games and yet the Cardinals still only went 3-14. Prescott threw for 4552 yards last season and the Cowboys only went 7-9-1. Burrows passed for almost 5000 yards in 2024 and yet the Bengals only went 9-8. 

On the other hand, in 2025, Hurts only passed for 3224 yards and the Eagles won the SB. 

It's easy to get lost in total yardage and a "strong arm". But all of that means nothing if the rest of the team isn't built correctly. I think the Panther's are building correctly so that Young doesn't need to pass for 4000 yards for them to have success.

Edited 23 hours ago by cranky

[LinvilleGorge]

36 minutes ago, cranky said:

So you are saying that playing a "high level game manager" type role can win a SB. Sounds like what the Panthers are trying to build.

Bruce can't be that. Darnold can make a ton of throws that Bruce flat out can't. Darnold's physical talent doesn't handcuff your play calling like Bryce's does. You just have to protect Darnold from himself and not ask too much of him in terms of putting mental pressure on him. That's when he cracks and turns into a turnover machine. Bryce limits the hell out of your play calling. Deep outs? Pretty much eliminated from the playbook. Sideline throws to the wide side of the field when you're on the hash marks? Woah boy. That's begging for a pick six. Throws more than about 10-15 yards beyond the LOS? We're basically having to scheme up those shots to come on 3rd or 4th and short when the D is expecting a run or a quick hitter. 3rd and long is basically a "gain a few yards to hopefully flip this field position eith this upcoming punt" play call versus trying to actually move the sticks. The opposing defense is essentially treating the entire field like its the red zone because Bryce can't really threaten them vertically outside of scheming up deep shots on traditional power running downs... something they'll likely be on the lookout for next year after studying up on us doing that with success down the stretch last year. 

[LinvilleGorge]

13 minutes ago, cranky said:

You are right saying Brissett would have passed for 4000 if he had played 17 instead of 12 games and yet the Cardinals still only went 3-14. Prescott threw for 4552 yards last season and the Cowboys only went 7-9-1. Burrows passed for almost 5000 yards in 2024 and yet the Bengals only went 9-8. 

On the other hand, in 2025, Hurts only passed for 3224 yards and the Eagles won the SB. 

It's easy to get lost in total yardage and a "strong arm". But all of that means nothing if the rest of the team isn't built correctly. I think the Panther's are building correctly so that Young doesn't need to pass for 4000 yards for them to have success.

If you pay Bryce $50M a year you greatly limit your ability to put the type of team around him you need to have to have a chance to win. THAT is the problem. Hell, we can't win with him on a rookie contract. How the hell are we supposed to start winning with him paying him like a franchise QB and having to make tough roster decisions to accommodate his cap hit? 

[SmokinwithWilly]

11 minutes ago, cranky said:

You are right saying Brissett would have passed for 4000 if he had played 17 instead of 12 games and yet the Cardinals still only went 3-14. Prescott threw for 4552 yards last season and the Cowboys only went 7-9-1. Burrows passed for almost 5000 yards in 2024 and yet the Bengals only went 9-8. 

On the other hand, in 2025, Hurts only passed for 3224 yards and the Eagles won the SB. 

It's easy to get lost in total yardage and a "strong arm". But all of that means nothing if the rest of the team isn't built correctly. I think the Panther's are building correctly so that Young doesn't need to pass for 4000 yards for them to have success.

Actually that 4400 was based on a 16 game season to match Bryce's 16 games this year. Your offense has to be to drive the ball when it matters. Bryce doesn't do that with any level of consistency. If you're building a team that isn't focused on your QB, then fine. Then there's no need to pay Bryce as a franchise QB because literally anyone else will do. If you're going to pay him 50m plus per season, you have to be able to put the team on his shoulders and know he's going to carry the load. So far, when the pressure is on to get it done, Bryce has fallen miserably short of the target. 4-6 to finish out the season and 0-2 when all we need is a win to secure a playoff spot isn't stepping up and proving yourself as a franchise QB. I'd say it's quite the opposite. 

There isn't a single coach in this league that would take Bryce over Burrow and very few if any that would take Bryce over Prescott. Hurts didn't have to throw in 2025 because Philly's defense was disgusting and Saquan had a MVP season. But then again, Hurts has shown that he can when it counts, and then there's his signature. Philly runs the tush push to lethal perfection, but that's a play we can't even consider with Bryce.

You used 3 QBs from teams that had no defense to show QB stats don't always matter. When we had the worst defense in the NFL, we didn't see Bryce step up and carry the offense and put up gaudy numbers in a losing season because we were playing catch up. It was pretty much the opposite. 

What have we seen from Bryce consistently to consider offering him a top 10 NFL franchise QB level contract? At the end of the day, that's all that matters. 

 

[cranky]

19 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If you pay Bryce $50M a year you greatly limit your ability to put the type of team around him you need to have to have a chance to win. THAT is the problem. Hell, we can't win with him on a rookie contract. How the hell are we supposed to start winning with him paying him like a franchise QB and having to make tough roster decisions to accommodate his cap hit? 

Not sure why everyone keeps talking about the Panthers paying him $50M/year. I don't recall anyone EVER saying he deserves that. I think something like what the Dolphins signed Malik Willis to would be good: 3 years, $67.5M but it will probably be something along the lines of Mayfield or Darnold which is around $35M/year.