10 Players to watch and Johnson making the Panthers pay

[panthers55]

He sat his rookie year, but since then he has performed in every season. In 2009 he had one of the highest pressures per play rates in the NFL and picked up 6 (technically 7) sacks in 2008. He has NEVER been poor against the run.

In 2008 he had 20 solo tackles and played mainly on third down. So of course his pressures per play were high because he only played against the pass and had the chance to rush the quarterback on most plays. Unlike other three down DEs who play against the run on first or second down most of the time which dilutes those pressure numbers.

He has never played primarily on first or second down until last year so how would you judge whether he was good against the run? He rarely was in on running plays. Obviously the coaches thought Brayton was better against the run because he was the starter in 2008 and played on first and second down which are primarily running downs. So yeah he was not good against the run until last year.

[Urrymonster]

In 2008 he had 20 solo tackles and played mainly on third down. So of course his pressures per play were high because he only played against the pass and had the chance to rush the quarterback on most plays. Unlike other three down DEs who play against the run on first or second down most of the time which dilutes those pressure numbers.

He has never played primarily on first or second down until last year so how would you judge whether he was good against the run? He rarely was in on running plays. Obviously the coaches thought Brayton was better against the run because he was the starter in 2008 and played on first and second down which are primarily running downs. So yeah he was not good against the run until last year.

40% of Johnson's snaps in 2009 were against the run. He also played in 53.4% of total snaps. Even if our defence forced a 3 and out every possession, then he would be looking at a maximum of 33%. Considering 1st and 2nd down occur more frequently than 3rd down, the percentage weight to 3rd down drops even more so. So when you look at the 53% of snaps he played, I am afraid a significant portion of them were indeed one 1st and 2nd down.

Actually, sorry, your use of tackles as a measurement is a much stronger use of stats. Did you know that all but one of those tackles you pointed out were considered defensive stops? So he must have been doing something right in the run game... :rolleyes:

The absolutely best part of this argument is this claim:

Obviously the coaches thought Brayton was better against the run because he was the starter in 2008 and played on first and second down which are primarily running downs. So yeah he was not good against the run until last year.

Sit down, have a coffee (Irish) and just think about what you have just written. Are you seriously coming to the conclusion that Brayton starting MUST mean Johnson is poor against the run? I mean, it's not like Fox ever preferred veterans playing despite not being the better player...

[panthers55]

40% of Johnson's snaps in 2009 were against the run. He also played in 53.4% of total snaps. Even if our defence forced a 3 and out every possession, then he would be looking at a maximum of 33%. Considering 1st and 2nd down occur more frequently than 3rd down, the percentage weight to 3rd down drops even more so. So when you look at the 53% of snaps he played, I am afraid a significant portion of them were indeed one 1st and 2nd down.

Actually, sorry, your use of tackles as a measurement is a much stronger use of stats. Did you know that all but one of those tackles you pointed out were considered defensive stops? So he must have been doing something right in the run game... :rolleyes:

The absolutely best part of this argument is this claim:

Sit down, have a coffee (Irish) and just think about what you have just written. Are you seriously coming to the conclusion that Brayton starting MUST mean Johnson is poor against the run? I mean, it's not like Fox ever preferred veterans playing despite not being the better player...

He did play on first and second downs but it doesn't mean it was against the run. Against teams like New Orleans twice that year and Arizona he would play a majority of the snaps because they throw the ball most of the time and we kept in our nickel package which he was a part of in 2008. Also add that Atlanta used the no huddle often twice that year which forces you not to substitute defensive line players so you would go with your pass rushers. Sprinkle in the fact that he was in a rotation so he would spell players when they got tired and it is easy to see that he could be in the game about half of the time. That surely lends no credibility to the belief that he was good against the run or that he played a majoirty of first or second down plays because he could hold the edge.

I guess you know that tackling the quarterback past the line of scrimmage is considered a defensive stop, tackling a running back out of the backfield on a pass is a defensive stop as well as stopping a running play. So to say that he averaged slightly over 1 tackle a game surely doesn't lend any weight to the fact that he was good against the run.

And yes, Virginia the fact that Brayton has 35 tackles and 4 1/2 sacks in 2008 shows that not only was he better against the run but he was as good against the pass and that is why he started all 16 games in 2008. Fox did start rookies if they were good enough. Didn't Godfrey start as a rookie in 2008???? When you add that the 4-3 under skewed the defense on running plays to Peppers side ( Peppers and Lewis would play the 3 and 5 technique in a 1 gap scheme, while Brayton would play the 4 technique in a 2 gap scheme) his play was even more noteworthy.

Johnson was a project when we drafted him and has consistently progressed to where he is now.

You might want to sit down with a Chai tea and mull over what I have written and consider re-evaluating your post.

[Urrymonster]

He did play on first and second downs but it doesn't mean it was against the run. Against teams like New Orleans twice that year and Arizona he would play a majority of the snaps because they throw the ball most of the time and we kept in our nickel package which he was a part of in 2008. Also add that Atlanta used the no huddle often twice that year which forces you not to substitute defensive line players so you would go with your pass rushers. Sprinkle in the fact that he was in a rotation so he would spell players when they got tired and it is easy to see that he could be in the game about half of the time. That surely lends no credibility to the belief that he was good against the run or that he played a majoirty of first or second down plays because he could hold the edge.

I guess you know that tackling the quarterback past the line of scrimmage is considered a defensive stop, tackling a running back out of the backfield on a pass is a defensive stop as well as stopping a running play. So to say that he averaged slightly over 1 tackle a game surely doesn't lend any weight to the fact that he was good against the run.

And yes, Virginia the fact that Brayton has 35 tackles and 4 1/2 sacks in 2008 shows that not only was he better against the run but he was as good against the pass and that is why he started all 16 games in 2008. Fox did start rookies if they were good enough. Didn't Godfrey start as a rookie in 2008???? When you add that the 4-3 under skewed the defense on running plays to Peppers side ( Peppers and Lewis would play the 3 and 5 technique in a 1 gap scheme, while Brayton would play the 4 technique in a 2 gap scheme) his play was even more noteworthy.

Johnson was a project when we drafted him and has consistently progressed to where he is now.

You might want to sit down with a Chai tea and mull over what I have written and consider re-evaluating your post.

EDIT - I think the main issue here is we are looking at different seasons, I quite clearly pointed out I was talking about his 2009 season...

Let's rinse and repeat.

Johnson played in ~ 53% of snaps in 2009

No matter how you cut it up, the guy played a fair portion on 1st and 2nd down. If he played every single third down, that's at best 33% of downs, which means he played in 33% of 1st and 2nd downs. Now I find it pretty hard to believe he played in (A) every single 3rd down and (B) that we had an equal amount of 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs. Therefore that 33% of 1st and 2nd downs in reality was much closer to 50%, or even more.

You said he played mainly third down. Actually, he statistically featured more frequently on 1st or 2nd down.

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Johnson in 2009 ~ 38% of snaps were against the run

Brayton in 2009 ~ 45% of snaps were against the run

Peppers in 2009 ~ 42% of snaps were against the run

Seems like he was essentially the same as the others...

You said he only rushed the passer, when in actuality he was within 7% of the other prominent DEs on the roster in how often they faced the run game.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Johnson had 13 defensive stops and was credited with 14 solo tackles after review in 2009. Yes I am well aware what constitutes a defensive stop. Using your expert definition, you can quickly see that to record a stop (baring in mind he only had 4 sacks), he has to be able to disengage from his blocker, locate the ball carrier and make the tackle at or very close to the line of scrimmage. He had the third best ratio of stops to tackles (taking away sacks) on the team.

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In 2008 you make the excuse that he played more often on third down. Fair enough, the guy is going to get a higher pressure per play. However I didn't actually explain myself.

He had one of the highest pressures per pass rush in the NFL, generating pressure on 8% of pass rushes, a hit on 1.1% and a sack on 1.9%.

I'll be honest I thought you meant 2009 when you were talking about Brayton starting in 2008, so I concede that point, however the fact remains that Johnson had a better STOP per play (removing sacks), and total pressure per pass rush, than Brayton. For his first season playing, he was actually more than accomplished in both facets.

[pantherclaw]

Johnson is easily worth 12 mill a year. He'll still still be easy to sign hat the other option.

[panthers55]

EDIT - I think the main issue here is we are looking at different seasons, I quite clearly pointed out I was talking about his 2009 season...

Let's rinse and repeat.

Johnson played in ~ 53% of snaps in 2009

No matter how you cut it up, the guy played a fair portion on 1st and 2nd down. If he played every single third down, that's at best 33% of downs, which means he played in 33% of 1st and 2nd downs. Now I find it pretty hard to believe he played in (A) every single 3rd down and (B) that we had an equal amount of 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs. Therefore that 33% of 1st and 2nd downs in reality was much closer to 50%, or even more.

You said he played mainly third down. Actually, he statistically featured more frequently on 1st or 2nd down.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Johnson in 2009 ~ 38% of snaps were against the run

Brayton in 2009 ~ 45% of snaps were against the run

Peppers in 2009 ~ 42% of snaps were against the run

Seems like he was essentially the same as the others...

You said he only rushed the passer, when in actuality he was within 7% of the other prominent DEs on the roster in how often they faced the run game.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Johnson had 13 defensive stops and was credited with 14 solo tackles after review in 2009. Yes I am well aware what constitutes a defensive stop. Using your expert definition, you can quickly see that to record a stop (baring in mind he only had 4 sacks), he has to be able to disengage from his blocker, locate the ball carrier and make the tackle at or very close to the line of scrimmage. He had the third best ratio of stops to tackles (taking away sacks) on the team.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In 2008 you make the excuse that he played more often on third down. Fair enough, the guy is going to get a higher pressure per play. However I didn't actually explain myself.

He had one of the highest pressures per pass rush in the NFL, generating pressure on 8% of pass rushes, a hit on 1.1% and a sack on 1.9%.

I'll be honest I thought you meant 2009 when you were talking about Brayton starting in 2008, so I concede that point, however the fact remains that Johnson had a better STOP per play (removing sacks), and total pressure per pass rush, than Brayton. For his first season playing, he was actually more than accomplished in both facets.

I like your use of facts and stats to prove your point as well as your analysis. I agree with you that Johnson had a pretty good 2009 and showed improvement each year. That is why most Panthers fans who watched him over the years were not that surprised that he turned in such a great 2010.

I guess I missed that you were responding to 2009 when I was talking about his 2008 season which was his second year in the league. I went to 2008 because you mentioned he had 6 almost 7 sacks which was the 2008 season not 2009. He had only 4 sacks in 2009 but the same number of combined tackles which were 25 so I can see where you might have mixed things up. You included stats fromboth years while I was totally talking only about 2008. I am not sure why your post here keeps arguing about what I said using 2009 numbers when I was talking about 2008. After all, you were the first to realize that we were talking about 2 different years. We were obviously arguing apples and oranges and both of us were right. But whatever, it doesn't matter.

To your point though, Johnson definitely has improved his run support and that is why he went from a 3rd down specialist to an every down guy.

My point in all that was that Johnson went from Brayton's backup to a force from 2008 to 2010. In 2008, he wasn't big enough to hold the edge particularly against double teams. But in the offseason between 2008 and 2009 he bulked up and put on a ton of muscle and his run stopping ability immediately improved. He also now had a bull rush as well as an outside move. His production rushing the passer went down, but in all fairness he only appeared in 13 games and started 2. With all the injuries to our DTs he and Brayton both spent more time at both the DT and DE positions. He got even bigger between 2009 and 2010 and is considered one of the strongest guys on the team. When we drafted him the word was that he had a great frame but needed to fill out and add muscle. He needed time to develop his game and was raw being only a Junior. Seems they were right on with the analysis and he has made the most of it. If you are going to have a career year, you better do it when you are in a contract year. Hopefully this is only the beginning of even more. In McDermott's scheme he should be a beast.

[jtm]

Is Johnson worth $10 mil after only one good season though?

Why not? In my opinion the DE position is the most overpaid position in the NFL. CJ will probably get that from other teams so you have to pay it. We are not in a position to let talent walk because of money. We have plenty of cap space - spend it on every good player we have.

[Darth Bobo]

12m annually is reasonable for an ELITE player.

Where does CJ rank in the top 100 players chosen by other players(ala NFL Network)?

How much money annually are the guys ranked 80 -100 making?

[DaCityKats]

he showed flashes in games he didnt start. when he got the chance to start he produces on a high level. we have to pay him, because if we dont some one else will.

not to mention the other starting DE had 0 sacks, we would have the worst set of DE's in the league if he jets.

[NJPanthers12]

I was told this exactly. "The Panthers know they cannot allow Charles Johnson to leave, he is there only legit proven pass rusher. The will pay whatever it takes to sign him. The only way he is not a Panther next year is if he takes a discout to go to Atlanta which is not likely or Atlanta just throws unreal money at him that it would not eve make sense to match." So pretty much it is Carolina vs. Atlana for CJ.

[Darth Bobo]

we have to pay him, because if we dont some one else will.

Teams who follow that logic, instead of paying players what they deserve quickly find themselves at the salary cap with an inadequate team. Considering the blood that this team has shed in order to gouge out economic leverage for our future's sake, I find it hard to imagine that we would squander that sacrifice to overpay a player simply because another team is willing to overpay.

This doesn't mean that I don't think we should NEVER overpay any player. It means that if we are to overpay a player, it should be reserved for when we are in close pursuit of a playoff run, not when we are rebuilding for a future dynasty.

[CRA]

Teams who follow that logic, instead of paying players what they deserve quickly find themselves at the salary cap with an inadequate team. Considering the blood that this team has shed in order to gouge out economic leverage for our future's sake, I find it hard to imagine that we would squander that sacrifice to overpay a player simply because another team is willing to overpay.

This doesn't mean that I don't think we should NEVER overpay any player. It means that if we are to overpay a player, it should be reserved for when we are in close pursuit of a playoff run, not when we are rebuilding for a future dynasty.

Right now we are trying to rebuild.....and if you let your ONLY legit defensive lineman walk (not to mention he is young).....you are going backwards. Charles Johnson is 7 yr younger than Peppers. He is the first piece of the puzzle in building a new DL here.

[NJPanthers12]

Teams who follow that logic, instead of paying players what they deserve quickly find themselves at the salary cap with an inadequate team. Considering the blood that this team has shed in order to gouge out economic leverage for our future's sake, I find it hard to imagine that we would squander that sacrifice to overpay a player simply because another team is willing to overpay.

This doesn't mean that I don't think we should NEVER overpay any player. It means that if we are to overpay a player, it should be reserved for when we are in close pursuit of a playoff run, not when we are rebuilding for a future dynasty.

I dont get your logic. We are rebuilding trying to get to a championship, but you dont want to pay a 24 year old DE who is just starting to figure it out when we have no one else on the team who can get to the QB?

[NJPanthers12]

Right now we are trying to rebuild.....and if you let your ONLY legit defensive lineman walk (not to mention he is young).....you are going backwards. Charles Johnson is 7 yr younger than Peppers. He is the first piece of the puzzle in building a new DL here.

Exactly we need to build our defense around Beason, Johnson, and Davis. Cannot be letting Johnson go. Then you need to hope Anderson, Hardy, and Martin take it to the next level and we are not looking to bad.