How Do You Evaluate A Draft Pick?

[panther4life]

http://draftmetrics.com/ is a site you would love. That being said they admit its not an exact science.

"Finally, DRAFTMETRICS cannot leave this subject without a brief discussion about the "L" word, or Luck in this case. If a team truly had a superior scouting and front office staff in comparison to its competition, one would expect a fair amount of consistency in draft results. Recognizing that injury and non-football related matters can cause some bumps in the road, this consistency seemed to be lacking in our review (the Packers looking like an exception).

One example illustrates the point. With selections 14-40 the Eagles had one of the worst records of any team, with 3.85 fewer five-year starters than expected. With selections 41-66 the Eagles had one of the best records, with 2.03 more five-year starters than expected. There may be explanations other than luck, but it was the same group of guys making the selections in both cases and in one case they stunk and in the other they were geniuses. It does cause you to wonder, though, if the draft is more like blackjack than bridge."

[Zod]

I typically wait 3 years.

Ask me how the AE pick was.

[Happy Panther]

Capt is a great for a 7th round pick. Not sure who would argue.

He is one of my favorites but to play devil's advocate...would he have started on other NFL teams?

[Stroupe-a-loop]

http://draftmetrics.com/ is a site you would love. That being said they admit its not an exact science.

"Finally, DRAFTMETRICS cannot leave this subject without a brief discussion about the "L" word, or Luck in this case. If a team truly had a superior scouting and front office staff in comparison to its competition, one would expect a fair amount of consistency in draft results. Recognizing that injury and non-football related matters can cause some bumps in the road, this consistency seemed to be lacking in our review (the Packers looking like an exception).

One example illustrates the point. With selections 14-40 the Eagles had one of the worst records of any team, with 3.85 fewer five-year starters than expected. With selections 41-66 the Eagles had one of the best records, with 2.03 more five-year starters than expected. There may be explanations other than luck, but it was the same group of guys making the selections in both cases and in one case they stunk and in the other they were geniuses. It does cause you to wonder, though, if the draft is more like blackjack than bridge."

Yeah, that seems like a site that's kind of what I'm looking for. But yeah, I think the draft is far more chance and luck than most people are willing to admit. Thanks.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

He is one of my favorites but to play devil's advocate...would he have started on other NFL teams?

True, but how many NFL teams have one, or multiple players, their fans would say that about? I think it's more common than we think about. But it's a very difficult thing to work out sometimes.

[jayflip]

Hi everybody,

Hi Dr. Nick!!!

[Stroupe-a-loop]

Hi Dr. Nick!!!

Flammable and Inflammable mean the same thing? What a country!

[carolina-chuck]

I wanna know the dumb@ss who said Captain was a bad pick in the 7th round.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

I wanna know the dumb@ss who said Captain was a bad pick in the 7th round.

Yeah, that's kind of the point of this whole thing. People rag on Captain because he's not a great starter, but he was tremendous value in the draft. So there has to be a way sort of express to people what to expect from a seventh rounder. I'm just guessing, but I would say it's a 50/50 shot for those guys to make the opening day roster. So a guy like Captain is tremendous value. I think I'm just going to do some research on what happens with other teams' picks as well. I think some dudes on here just get too wrapped up with what our guys do.

[Peppers90 NC]

idk, maybe by how many better players were taken after that draft pick

[Pejorative Miscreant]

I think there is a lot of "art" in evaluating draft picks after the fact and determining whether it was a good pick or not.

I guess the simplest (although it could be quite tedious) way to get a sense is to take a weighted variable (GP + (GS*2) for example) of a player and then compare that to the average of the 5-10 players drafted before and after him. If he grades out higher than average he should be considered good.

I am not bored enough to perform aforementioned analysis on Captain Munnerlyn but I don't think there are many 7th rounders picked in 2009 (or any year for that matter) that have been as successful as him.

[PantherAZ]

I typically wait 3 years.

Ask me how the AE pick was.

Thoughts on AE?

[PantherAZ]

Yeah, that's kind of the point of this whole thing. People rag on Captain because he's not a great starter, but he was tremendous value in the draft. So there has to be a way sort of express to people what to expect from a seventh rounder. I'm just guessing, but I would say it's a 50/50 shot for those guys to make the opening day roster. So a guy like Captain is tremendous value. I think I'm just going to do some research on what happens with other teams' picks as well. I think some dudes on here just get too wrapped up with what our guys do.

I don't think anyone says he was a bad pick. People freaked when it looked like he was leaving. People just didn't want him to be the #1 CB.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

I think there is a lot of "art" in evaluating draft picks after the fact and determining whether it was a good pick or not.

I guess the simplest (although it could be quite tedious) way to get a sense is to take a weighted variable (GP + (GS*2) for example) of a player and then compare that to the average of the 5-10 players drafted before and after him. If he grades out higher than average he should be considered good.

I am not bored enough to perform aforementioned analysis on Captain Munnerlyn but I don't think there are many 7th rounders picked in 2009 (or any year for that matter) that have been as successful as him.

Hmmm that could be interesting. Maybe I could do GP+(GS*2)+ Assigned value for pro bowl appearances. Then you could literally see the "value" of each pick and then say "oh, a first round pick around the 14th pick should have this type of career". And you see picks that overperform for their slot and are thus good picks. I might look into that, even though, as you said, it would be quite tedious.