How much is Hardy worth?

[carpanfan96]

So did you.  I mentioned the timing, but did not realize how critical it is until your post.  If we wait until February and he has 13 tackles for loss, 56 tackles and 14 sacks, we lose him.

 

However, he has to think, "If I take $35 million now, I am set for life.  If I wait, I could suffer an injury.  I could get stonewalled and get only 3 sacks."

 

Come to think of it, the ONLY way we keep Hardy (assuming he has a bigger year than last year because he has some stud DTs and LBs now) is to do the deal now, before his resume gets gawdy.

 

 

 

The timing doesn't really have much effect here, Drew's going to play hard ball and ask for 10+ a season. The baseline for Hardy's deal is going to be Paul Kruger's 5-40 million dollar deal, so expect more then that. On the low end expect 5-45-50 milliion with 25 million guaranteed. 

 

 

So the question becomes, do you think Hardy is worth 10 Million a year when you have Keek and Cam coming up for contracts here in the next few years, CJ already making a bunch and a ton of holes in the secondary, OL and WR positions. 

[pantherclaw]

So did you. I mentioned the timing, but did not realize how critical it is until your post. If we wait until February and he has 13 tackles for loss, 56 tackles and 14 sacks, we lose him.

However, he has to think, "If I take $35 million now, I am set for life. If I wait, I could suffer an injury. I could get stonewalled and get only 3 sacks."

Come to think of it, the ONLY way we keep Hardy (assuming he has a bigger year than last year because he has some stud DTs and LBs now) is to do the deal now, before his resume gets gawdy.

there is pressure to get it done while he's still affordable.

It would be nice to get him locked into a good 8 year contract, but that's me dreaming.

Reality says it'll be a 5, maybe 6 year contract.

[MHS831]

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The timing doesn't really have much effect here, Drew's going to play hard ball and ask for 10+ a season. The baseline for Hardy's deal is going to be Paul Kruger's 5-40 million dollar deal, so expect more then that. On the low end expect 5-45-50 milliion with 25 million guaranteed. 

 

 

So the question becomes, do you think Hardy is worth 10 Million a year when you have Keek and Cam coming up for contracts here in the next few years, CJ already making a bunch and a ton of holes in the secondary, OL and WR positions. 

But you factor in this year's salary in an extension, so I am guessing around $8m.  However, he has a good agent.

 

Will a former sixth rounder get $10 m for averaging 6 sacks per season?

[MHS831]

It is going to be very interesting. I do not expect a quick resolution

[carpanfan96]

But you factor in this year's salary in an extension, so I am guessing around $8m.  However, he has a good agent.

 

I'm factoring that in, It will be a 5 year extension. Making his deal run 6 years and it will be worth 10+ million over the life of the contract. On the low end your looking at a total of 8 million a season, it's more likely that he gets a massive deal similar to CJ's. (he's worth more actually. lol) He's valued as an elite player already and is considered by many in the league to be a top 5 4-3 DE. One of the best on his side of the DL as well. The average amount of sacks over his career is irrelevant right now, just look at the last two seasons when he's ranked as one of the best pass rushers in the NFL and one of the best DE's in the NFL when he's on the field. 

 

 

He makes 1.3 million this season

His deal will likely tack on 5-6 years worth around 60-70 million. 

 

His deal will then be a 6-7 year deal worth around 61-71 million total. That's him getting elite money (like many in the NFL view him) and making over 12 million a season counting this season. The problem is that puts 100 million dollars at just the two DE spots over the next 6 years. 

[pantherclaw]

I can see him getting a contract like peppers rookie contract, but with more guaranteed.

Peppers rookie contract was a 6 year contract worth just over 60 million with incentives.

[carolina-chuck]

Charles Johnson had 21 sacks in 4 seasons when he sat down at the negotiating table.  He was coming off his best season and only double-digit season (11).  He faces the right tackle and is solid vs. the run.  $12.66 million per season.  Many people on here say he is worth the money.

 

Greg Hardy has 18 sacks in 3 seasons.  He is coming off his best season and his only double-digit sack year (11).  He faces the LEFT tackle and is solid vs the run.  Many people on here are saying he is worth $6 million.

 

While we all know that Hurney was like a kid on crack with daddy's credit card, you can bet that Hardy's agent will mention CJ's deal on more than one occasion. 

 

If you think that CJ is worth nearly $13 million and Hardy is worth $6, then you have not looked at the numbers.  Johnson was overpaid, but he was not being extended and could walk.  Hardy will command lower $$ because there are no guarantees-- a bad season or injury could impact his worth in a negative way.  However, I am guessing the extended contract will be closer to $10 million than $5 million.  Again, $8 million is about right. 

 

I would love $6m--and I think Gettlemen will get the bottom dollar--but that is wishful thinking.

 

You made some very good points. But let's look at this. Probably the best pure DE in this past off season was "Cliff Avril". The man have been a productive player for the Lions for years. This off season when he sat down at the negotiating table, Cliff Avril had "29" sacks in the past 3 seasons more than Hardy's 18. And "34.5" sacks the last 4 seasons more than CJ's 21.

 

How did that fare for Avril? Well he got a 3yr/30mil offer from Detroit which he turned down and agreed to a 2yr/15mil from the Seahawks. This didnt mean that he took a cheaper deal to play for a contending team too. Seahawks was in huge need of a pass rusher with Clemons coming back from injury. The problem was Avril never garnered any much interests during FA. I'm not sure Drew can convince Gettleman to bite on a CJ type of money for Hardy.

 

[carpanfan96]

I can see him getting a contract like peppers rookie contract, but with more guaranteed.

Peppers rookie contract was a 6 year contract worth just over 60 million with incentives.

 

 

 

That's a very good baseline for what Hardy should get. 6-60 with around 25 guaranteed with another 10 million available in incentives based on sack totals, pressures, Pro Bowls and other LTBE incentives. 

[carpanfan96]

You mad some very good points. But let's look at this. Probably the best pure DE in this past off season was "Cliff Avril". The man have been a productive player for the Lions for years. This off season when he sat down at the negotiating table, Cliff Avril had "29" sacks in the past 3 seasons and "34.5" sacks the last 4 seasons. How did that fare for Avril? He got a 3yr/30mil offer from Detroit which he turned down and agreed to a 2yr/15mil from the Seahawks. This didnt mean that he took at cheaper deal to play for a contending team too. Seahawks was in huge need of a pass rusher with Clemons coming back from injury. The problem was Avril never garnered any much interests during FA. I'm not sure Drew can convince Gettleman to bite on a CJ type of money for Hardy.

 

 

 

two words, one name. Paul Kruger, Drew's Defensive pass rusher on the market last season.  (less impressive stats compared to Hardy and he got a 5 year 40 million dollar deal. That's who Gettleman is working with here and that's the low low ball area for Hardy's contract. 

[pantherclaw]

I'll still pray for 6 million a year.

Please God.

[carpanfan96]

I'll still pray for 6 million a year.

Please God.

 

So am I. lol 

. 

I'd like to be completely wrong about one of these contract situations eventually.

[TheMaulClaw]

I would actually like to see them front load Hardy's contract.  We have 12.5 million in cap space now.   So see if he'll take 10 mill this year, then  7.5 mill, then 7.0 mill, in consecutive years it would be a win for us.  Our cap space is pretty much dead money right now in that the draft and the meat of free agency has ended. So we might as well use it to resign Hardy.  This way we'll have the painful part of his contract over by the time it's time to resign Cam.  Every year Hardy's contract will represent a savings from the previous year,  and we can still poach a veteran OL that's been cut.  

[pantherclaw]

So am I. lol

.

I'd like to be completely wrong about one of these contract situations eventually.

I nailed charles Johnson's contract. Which is why I think I want to stop talking about hardy's possible extension. Lol.

[carpanfan96]

I would actually like to see them front load Hardy's contract.  We have 12.5 million in cap space now.   So see if he'll take 10 mill this year, then  7.5 mill, then 7.0 mill, in consecutive years it would be a win for us.  Our cap space is pretty much dead money right now in that the draft and the meat of free agency has ended. So we might as well use it to resign Hardy.  This way we'll have the painful part of his contract over by the time it's time to resign Cam.  Every year Hardy's contract will represent a savings from the previous year,  and we can still poach a veteran OL that's been cut.  

 

 

The problem with that is that Gettleman needs as much of that 12.5 million to roll over for next years cap. 

 

The Panther's are already over the cap next season with only like 37-40 players on contract. Add Hardy's deal and Lafell's deal to that and it's likely the Panther's will start next season with 42 player under contract taking up 130 million in cap space.