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If you are interested, more statistical evidence that offense actually wasn't that big of an issue


teeray

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This is ridiculous. Zod and the mods.. Especially Zod I am certain you have enough money to afford this but I have 3 words for you clowns. Yes I said clowns because holy poo ever since Sunday you've been trolling the absolute bejesus out of this board like a bunch of 8 year olds that just had their Xbox taken away for a week. Those 3 words? NFL game rewind!! Go ahead spend the $10 break the bank if you have to but for the love of god grab a fuggin beer and rewatch the damn game! Shula called a hell of a game. I see this even more so now after watching the friggin game again. Zod I know you already have it because of the screenshot you posted earlier. Take off the damn vendetta glasses you have on because of frigging Tampa!!! Open your eyes. Cam played damn good! Hell no you don't go for it on 4th and inches from YOUR OWN DAMN 30 yard line!!!! This is not madden! Holy poo could you imagine the outrage had we of gotten stuffed and literally handed them the ball back already in scoring position!?!? That's just dumb as shi* football man.

Oh and we did run it on 2nd and short and 3rd and short. Guess what!? We also passed it on those types of downs as well!! Aaand we even ran cam on them. Dude called a great game not only should you see it with your own eyes but hell the original poster breaks it down Barney/geek mathmetician style on our ass's yet we can only look through a frigging black tunnel and see 7 points. Jesus you guys sound like ESPN right now. And to think man and you know for a fact half these people that really can't think for themselves look up to you guys and yet you're showing your arses...

The fug guys.

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This is ridiculous. Zod and the mods.. Especially Zod I am certain you have enough money to afford this but I have 3 words for you clowns. Yes I said clowns because holy poo ever since Sunday you've been trolling the absolute bejesus out of this board like a bunch of 8 year olds that just had their Xbox taken away for a week. Those 3 words? NFL game rewind!! Go ahead spend the $10 break the bank if you have to but for the love of god grab a fuggin beer and rewatch the damn game! Shula called a hell of a game. I see this even more so now after watching the friggin game again. Zod I know you already have it because of the screenshot you posted earlier. Take off the damn vendetta glasses you have on because of frigging Tampa!!! Open your eyes. Cam played damn good! Hell no you don't go for it on 4th and inches from YOUR OWN DAMN 30 yard line!!!! This is not madden! Holy poo could you imagine the outrage had we of gotten stuffed and literally handed them the ball back already in scoring position!?!? That's just dumb as shi* football man.

Oh and we did run it on 2nd and short and 3rd and short. Guess what!? We also passed it on those types of downs as well!! Aaand we even ran cam on them. Dude called a great game not only should you see it with your own eyes but hell the original poster breaks it down Barney/geek mathmetician style on our ass's yet we can only look through a frigging black tunnel and see 7 points. Jesus you guys sound like ESPN right now. And to think man and you know for a fact half these people that really can't think for themselves look up to you guys and yet you're showing your arses...

The fug guys.

 

This post is much more enjoyable if you imagine Henry Rollins reading it.

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1st drive: ended with 3rd and 2 incomplete pass by Cam - Punt

2nd drive: needed 12 yards, got 8 from Olsen - Punt

3rd drive: 3rd and 7 incomplete pass - Punt (This was the Olsen miss long left)

4th Drive - Touchdown!

5th Drive - cut off by halftime

6th Drive - 2nd and 2 goes to 3rd and 2 goes to 4th and 1 when Williams couldn't gain 2 yards over 2 plays - Punt

7th drive - 3rd and 12. Cam rushes for 10. - Punt

8th drive - 2nd and 2. The infamous Deangelo fumble.

 

The fumble sucks but we should have been well up by that point. 

 

Add to that an anemic 250 yards total  and it is hard for me to say we weren't pretty bad. The average yards per drive is a neat stat but only two of our drives netted decent yards. The one touchdown and the fumble drive. The others were mostly punts from between the CAR 32 and SEA 41.

 

On the good side the O-Line looked decent and we only had 4 penalties. Cam protected the ball.

 

Seattle is good but if we play disjointed and stagnant like we did Sunday there are plenty of teams with good enough defenses to make us look bad. Probably the Bills among them

 

The bold is part of my point.

 

Let me start off by saying that almost all of my math in the OP is wrong because ESPN has an error that credits a drive to the Panthers which was actually the Seahawks.

 

That actually magnifies my point even more however and changes the fact that our offense actaully over performed expectations.

 

But to the point I was going to make.  253 yards by itself looks anemic.

 

Take away the 7 yards and the possession before half that was just running the clock out, that is 246 yards over only 7 possessions.  That is around 35 yards per drive.  By last year's totals that is actually top 5 in the NFL.  That is actually good performance

 

We also didn't have a starting field position of 24.25 of whatever I said in the OP.  It was actually our own 20.17 average starting field position which would have been worst in the NFL last year.

 

Offensive performance was there.

 

So why did we only score 7?  It comes to three things: 

 

1  Low number of possession (only 7)

 

2.  Field position (20.71)

 

3.  The Turnover

 

That's it.  Three things that have have nothing to do with playcalling or aggressiveness.

 

the playcalling was fine, and the offense ran it well.  We botched opportunities

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That's it.  Three things that have have nothing to do with playcalling or aggressiveness.

 

the playcalling was fine, and the offense ran it well.  We botched opportunities

 

Good teams find ways to win with botched opportunities. We find a way to lose over and over.

 

Seattle had plenty of dropped passes and 100 yards of penalties yet stayed aggressive and won. They won because of a long pass on a day they easily could have lost. We lost on a day we could have won because we couldn't move the ball. 2 real drives all day is what we had.

 

Aggressiveness and play-calling go hand in hand and ours was bad. Even Rivera admitted it.

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I think quite a few people are completely misinterpreting Teeray's data.

Field Position is a big deal, it is hard to drive 80 yards and get TDs in the NFL.

 

Let me pull a few NFL gamebooks from this weekend from high scoring games:

 

Chip Kelly's blur offense drove 80 yards and got a TD how many times......NOT ONCE!!!!

3 of their TDs they started on Redskins side. (out of 4 possesions in WAS territory)

When the Eagles started at their 20 or worse (19), their drives ended: Fumble, FG, Punt, Fumble, Punt.

 

Washington didn't get better field position than their 20 until the end of the 3rd qtr. Their drives (20 or worse) ended with Fumble, INT, safety, Punt, Punt, Punt, INT, Downs, TD (yes the garbage time TD).

 

From the 20 or worse:

Patriots: Punt, punt, Fumble, Punt, FG, Punt

Bills: Fumble, punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, TD, punt, punt, punt

Packers: Punt, punt, TD, Fumble, punt, INT, punt, punt

SanFran (this is impressive or GB def really sucks or both): TD, TD, FG, punt, TD

oddity: SF actually did worse with better field position: Punt, punt, TD, punt, missed FG, punt, FG

 

Houston: only 3 drives all game from their 20 or worse. They scored ZERO points. 1 INT, 1 Downs.

SD: 7 drives: 2TDs, 4 punts, 1 INTs.

 

I need to get back to work, but only 2 of 8 teams listed here in high scoring games drove and got points (TD or FG) more than once if they had to go 80 yards. Fox ball wasn't a stupid concept. Make teams drive 80 yards for TDs. I'll pull the Denver game later.....

 

EDIT:

Ravens: punt, TD, punt, INT, punt, punt, FG, punt(blocked), punt, punt, punt, punt, INT, TD, punt.

Broncos: punt, TD, TD, punt TD

Note: Broncos had 14 drives (not including end of half/game) and only 5 from their 20 or worse. Compare to the Ravens two drives from their 20 or better.

 

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I think quite a few people are completely misinterpreting Teeray's data.

Field Position is a big deal, it is hard to drive 80 yards and get TDs in the NFL.

 

Let me pull a few NFL gamebooks from this weekend from high scoring games:

 

Chip Kelly's blur offense drove 80 yards and got a TD how many times......NOT ONCE!!!!

3 of their TDs they started on Redskins side. (out of 4 possesions in WAS territory)

When the Eagles started at their 20 or worse (19), their drives ended: Fumble, FG, Punt, Fumble, Punt.

 

Washington didn't get better field position than their 20 until the end of the 3rd qtr. Their drives (20 or worse) ended with Fumble, INT, safety, Punt, Punt, Punt, INT, Downs, TD (yes the garbage time TD).

 

From the 20 or worse:

Patriots: Punt, punt, Fumble, Punt, FG, Punt

Bills: Fumble, punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, TD, punt, punt, punt

Packers: Punt, punt, TD, Fumble, punt, INT, punt, punt

SanFran (this is impressive or GB def really sucks or both): TD, TD, FG, punt, TD

oddity: SF actually did worse with better field position: Punt, punt, TD, punt, missed FG, punt, FG

 

Houston: only 3 drives all game from their 20 or worse. They scored ZERO points. 1 INT, 1 Downs.

SD: 7 drives: 2TDs, 4 punts, 1 INTs.

 

I need to get back to work, but only 2 of 8 teams listed here in high scoring games drove and got points (TD or FG) more than once if they had to go 80 yards. Fox ball wasn't a stupid concept. Make teams drive 80 yards for TDs. I'll pull the Denver game later.....

 

EDIT:

Ravens: punt, TD, punt, INT, punt, punt, FG, punt(blocked), punt, punt, punt, punt, INT, TD, punt.

Broncos: punt, TD, TD, punt TD

Note: Broncos had 14 drives (not including end of half/game) and only 5 from their 20 or worse. Compare to the Ravens two drives from their 20 or better.

 

Good post.  Part of what I was talking about too.  Denver had 14 possessions not counting end of halves.

 

We had 7.

 

So if we had 14 possessions and scored 14 points we didn't play any better we just had more attempts.

 

Mav brought up a good point earlier though, the low possessions had to do with pace of play.  That is absolutely true on our part and the Hawks.  We were both taking our time between plays.  But still, we only had 7 possessions.  When your average starting field is 20.17 yard line, you are not going ot score very many points or even have many opportunities to score points.  Especially against a defense as well coached as Seattle's

 

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2 huge drops on the first 2 drives, 3 moronic mistakes on 3 second half STs plays, and a fumble inside the 5 yard line.

 

These are things that should not happen on an NFL team and they cost us the game.

 

Now go and name Seattle's mistakes...they had quite a few also.

 

We lost and the other team looked like crap to me. What does that say?

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I feel like all of these analyses are forgetting tempo.  Our offense was deliberately running as few drives as possible by soaking up as much clock as possible.  that's fine, but that's a particular playstyle that will mean fewer drives, and thus we will need to maximize our opportunities. 

 

either way, we didn't get it done, 7 points isn't going to cut it, and while our average yards per drive may be fine, I think the fear that this is just Shula-as-we-know-him is justified.  I don't think we should kick him to the curb but I also think it makes sense we'd be concerned at this point.  We'll see how he adjusts.

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I feel like all of these analyses are forgetting tempo. Our offense was deliberately running as few drives as possible by soaking up as much clock as possible. that's fine, but that's a particular playstyle that will mean fewer drives, and thus we will need to maximize our opportunities.

either way, we didn't get it done, 7 points isn't going to cut it, and while our average yards per drive may be fine, I think the fear that this is just Shula-as-we-know-him is justified. I don't think we should kick him to the curb but I also think it makes sense we'd be concerned at this point. We'll see how he adjusts.

Seattle played at a pretty deliberate pace as well and you are right that when you do that you have to maximize opportunities and we didn't. So I agree with you on that.

What I found surprising though is that we outperformed our offense from last years game against Seattle in every way, and more surprisingly, outperformed our drive metrics for all of last season per average.  I did not expect to see that.

We were handicapped with terrible field position and had two crucial fumbles. In a game like that those are the difference between winning and losing, and the difference between 7 and 14-17 points.

So the play calling to me wasn't the issue. It was circumstances of the type of game it was.  After looking at this game in deeper context I feel better about our offense than I did right after the game.

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We'll see - the playcalling looked an awful lot like what Shula has always been known for, which is part of why so many are concerned.  Maybe it was exactly what should have happened, but for once, I'd like to actually beat a decent team handily.  Ah well, I think this team has potential still, I just fear that Shula isn't going to be able to adjust to what other teams are doing.

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I've searched and searched to try and find a fault with this offense. I'm sorry there just isn't any. 7 points is the best any team could have done. I'm tickled and proud of our organization. WE lost but what the hell that's nothing new. Shula and huddle homers will explain to us ignorant fans winning is not important. So don't try to pretend you know more than the coaches. I hate wining.

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I've searched and searched to try and find a fault with this offense. I'm sorry there just isn't any. 7 points is the best any team could have done. I'm tickled and proud of our organization. WE lost but what the hell that's nothing new. Shula and huddle homers will explain to us ignorant fans winning is not important. So don't try to pretend you know more than the coaches. I hate wining.

 

That would be clever if that is what anyone said or even inferred.

 

Good effort though

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