We had our chance to sign Hardy, lets not make the same mistakes we made with D. Lo and J. Stew, he has to walk :(

[MHS831]

Like most DE's do but sacks aren't the only stat you look at. Pressure (which Hardy had 83) and tipped passes are just as good as Sacks sometimes.

 

Hardy is a good football player, so the facts I provide are not to suggest that he sucks, but to suggest that there is risk hidden in the good numbers he posted this year. He is not a pure 15-sack DE, but an all-around DE.  He rushes from the 3, 5, and 7.  He is a strong tackler who can hold down the point.   But if the money goes to DEs who sack the QB, the biggest measure of their success (right or wrong, and I think it is wrong) is the sack and not the batted ball or pressure as much, then he simply had a good year because he got lucky with subs, rookies, and inferior LTs. 

In addition, his sack total increases by about 40% the same year we get Star and KK. 

 

You are right, but my stats show that he was dominant against weak Ts and disappeared vs. the good ones.  In fact, he disappeared vs. the average Ts too.  We had some weak LTs in the division this year.  If Hardy is a solid 10-sack, 20 hurry, and 5 tipped passes a year DE, one who gets 8 tackles for loss and 60 tackles a year, is he worth $12.5 million?  I think that is about what his career average will be--good, but not great.

 

I am very concerned about finding a good replacement because our front 7 and QB were the reason we won 12 games. 

 

[WOW!!]

Hardy is a good football player, so the facts I provide are not to suggest that he sucks, but to suggest that there is risk hidden in the good numbers he posted this year. He is not a pure 15-sack DE, but an all-around DE. He rushes from the 3, 5, and 7. He is a strong tackler who can hold down the point. But if the money goes to DEs who sack the QB, the biggest measure of their success (right or wrong, and I think it is wrong) is the sack and not the batted ball or pressure as much, then he simply had a good year because he got lucky with subs, rookies, and inferior LTs.

In addition, his sack total increases by about 40% the same year we get Star and KK.

You are right, but my stats show that he was dominant against weak Ts and disappeared vs. the good ones. In fact, he disappeared vs. the average Ts too. We had some weak LTs in the division this year. If Hardy is a solid 10-sack, 20 hurry, and 5 tipped passes a year DE, one who gets 8 tackles for loss and 60 tackles a year, is he worth $12.5 million? I think that is about what his career average will be--good, but not great.

I am very concerned about finding a good replacement because our front 7 and QB were the reason we won 12 games.

No one had a problem with Jarred Allen having similar type production in the same way. Look up Allen and most DE's production game by game. All of then have big statistical games and some no show games during a season. I don't no the record of most consecutive games with a sack. But most top end Pass Rusher get numbers how Hardy got this year.

And let's also remember if Hardy doesn't have those dominant performances. We don't win those games.

[MHS831]

No one had a problem with Jarred Allen having similar type production in the same way. Look up Allen and most DE's production game by game. All of then have big statistical games and some no show games during a season. I don't no the record of most consecutive games with a sack. But most top end Pass Rusher get numbers how Hardy got this year.

And let's also remember if Hardy doesn't have those dominant performances. We don't win those games.

 

I understand football and you are making points without considering the complexity of my point of view--I am looking for the possibility that we would be buying high and not low. Sure Hardy had a good season and sure other DEs have games without sacks, but Hardy got lucky this year facing a really crappy group of tackles as a group.  Go back and look up the tackles he faced this year--not an average group. 

If you want to gauge how good he is, do not compare him to Jared Allen, compare him to Joe Staley, a team he faced twice.  Not fair?  Who was the best tackle he faced in a game where he got a sack?  Note his tackles and his deflections that game. 

 

As for batted balls, they really aren't as important as a sack if you are rating DEs-- I totally disagree with that comment.  Many batted or tipped passes are a result of the DL getting stonewalled.  Hurries lead to turnovers and incompletions.

 

Hardy is solid and I would love to have him. However, there are signs that suggest this year was a bit of a fluke and if we pay him based on this year's numbers, we would be paying too much.  Compare him to Jared Allen if you want; I am glad you are not the GM.:)

[frash.exe]

He's talking about (at least I think he is) signing Hardy to a large deal with a big signing bonus and then prorating the contract in such a way that the cap hit for the first 2 years is really low. After which Charles Johnson could likely be cut opening up cap space for Hardy's deal to expand in cap hit.

Oh god not the Hurney strategy. That's what got us into this mess in the first place. Back loaded contracts with huge signing bonuses that are impossible to work around if the deal blows up. If it becomes a choice between that and letting him walk, I'd rather he go, and I really really really want him to stay.

[WOW!!]

I understand football and you are making points without considering the complexity of my point of view--I am looking for the possibility that we would be buying high and not low. Sure Hardy had a good season and sure other DEs have games without sacks, but Hardy got lucky this year facing a really crappy group of tackles as a group. Go back and look up the tackles he faced this year--not an average group.

If you want to gauge how good he is, do not compare him to Jared Allen, compare him to Joe Staley, a team he faced twice. Not fair? Who was the best tackle he faced in a game where he got a sack? Note his tackles and his deflections that game.

As for batted balls, they really aren't as important as a sack if you are rating DEs-- I totally disagree with that comment. Many batted or tipped passes are a result of the DL getting stonewalled. Hurries lead to turnovers and incompletions.

Hardy is solid and I would love to have him. However, there are signs that suggest this year was a bit of a fluke and if we pay him based on this year's numbers, we would be paying too much. Compare him to Jared Allen if you want; I am glad you are not the GM.:)

You think he got lucky in a few match up's. I think it's a normal trend of a dominant pass rusher. You also never mention what he did against Staley in the 1st game against the 49ers or what he did against Volmer (pats), Jake Long (dolphins), or Penn (Bucs) he also had good games against them.

What about his versatility to line -up all over the d line or how his presences helping others get sacks. You're taking out a lot of info to make your "he's just solid argument here".

Also I watched Allen this year get completely dominated by Gross. It happens to all DE. Even the best of the best.

[MHS831]

You think he got lucky in a few match up's. I think it's a normal trend of a dominant pass rusher. You also never mention what he did against Staley in the 1st game against the 49ers or what he did against Volmer (pats), Jake Long (dolphins), or Penn (Bucs) he also had good games against them.

What about his versatility to line -up all over the d line or how his presences helping others get sacks. You're taking out a lot of info to make your "he's just solid argument here".

Also I watched Allen this year get completely dominated by Gross. It happens to all DE. Even the best of the best.

 

Since you brought it up:

Vs. Staley the first game:  "But the marquee matchup along the line was as much of a stalemate as anyone on the 49ers’ offense managed that day. In a head-to-head battle of two second-team All-Pros, 49ers left tackle Joe Staley allowed only one pressure and no sacks against Carolina defensive end Greg Hardy. Hardy, who moves around the line, had four other pressures when lined up elsewhere."  How many sacks did Hardy get vs. Tackles?

Vs Volmer and the Pats--Hardy had 3 tackles and 1 sack--on a busted assignment by the LT. (I tried to link it here--Google it)

Note that Volmer looks inside (mental mistake) and Hardy goes untouched.  Busted play, not Hardy dominance.

Vs, Jake Long and Miami (3 tackles, no sacks).  I am not sure you  meant to include that game.

These are the games you called "good." 

 

Hardy was not special vs, top OTs. How did he do vs. Kalil in Minnesota?  Staley again?  He dominated the weak sisters and padded stats.  If I am paying a DE $13 million, he better win some of the battles against the top LTs.

[WOW!!]

Since you brought it up:

Vs. Staley the first game: "But the marquee matchup along the line was as much of a stalemate as anyone on the 49ers’ offense managed that day. In a head-to-head battle of two second-team All-Pros, 49ers left tackle Joe Staley allowed only one pressure and no sacks against Carolina defensive end Greg Hardy. Hardy, who moves around the line, had four other pressures when lined up elsewhere." How many sacks did Hardy get vs. Tackles?

Vs Volmer and the Pats--Hardy had 3 tackles and 1 sack

Note that Volmer looks inside (mental mistake) and Hardy goes untouched. Busted play, not Hardy dominance.

Vs, Jake Long and Miami (3 tackles, no sacks). I am not sure you meant to include that game.

These are the games you called "good." Worth nearly a million per outing?

And what about what Gross did to Allen?? Do you not get that all DE lose some and win some??

How about you post all the top 5 pass rushers sack totals this year and who they came against.

[MHS831]

And what about what Gross did to Allen?? Do you not get that all DE lose some and win some??

How about you post all the top 5 pass rushers sack totals this year and who they came against.

 

 

Now ask me if I think Allen earned his money in 2013.  

 

He is a great example of why you do not pay DEs after their best season.

 

I do not think we should base Hardy's worth by comparing his inconsistency to overpaid DEs having a bad season.

 

Look up the best OTs in the league and see who they surrendered sacks to--you will get a pretty good idea of the elite DEs in the league. 

[Argus Plexus]

You think he would accept that offer?

 

 

I don't.

 

 

He will have options.

Why not? He gets the signing bonus all at once even though the value is prorated over the life of the contract. Base salary is just what he makes on a week to week basis.

[Argus Plexus]

He's talking about (at least I think he is) signing Hardy to a large deal with a big signing bonus and then prorating the contract in such a way that the cap hit for the first 2 years is really low.   After which Charles Johnson could likely be cut opening up cap space for Hardy's deal to expand in cap hit.

That's what I was talking about it. He gets the signing bonus all at once, it's not doled out piece by piece every year. The only thing that's prorated is the hit to the salary cap. So just sign him to a long deal (5-6 years?) with a larger than usual signing bonus but with lower base salary the first two years. Essentially, you're turning base salary into signing bonus so it can be prorated over the life of the contract rather than hitting the cap each year. That way he makes the same money, but we can keep the hit manageably low until we're out of cap purgatory. Why not?

 

Now, this is assuming we can bring him down to a contract figure that we can live with. CJ money is too much. If he won't take less than CJ money, let him walk or at least tag and trade, then go grab someone comparable in FA who can do the same job for the price we're looking for.

 

Fug names, we need production. If Hardy wants his payday, let him go have it. But it won't be at our expense. Plenty of players out there who can do his job for a reasonable price. Fans become too attached to a name or personality. We need production. This is a business.

[panthers55]

Any player can be neutralized by a great player or getting help by running backs and tight ends etc. And no one gets sacks every week. Anyone who watches football knows that it is about  individual matchups and gameplanning so every player is not going to have the same success week in and week out.  Why do you want a guy like Hardy even if he isn't fantastic every week? Because if you have 2 good DEs and good nose and under tackles, teams can't double team your best players and it allows you to not have to blitz to get pressure.

 

Look what happened when Johnson went down, the whole defense suffered. The same would happen to the defense if Hardy was not in there.  Honestly I think Hardy is the better player in 2013 compared to Johnson.  I guarantee that we will feel his loss big time if he goes elsewhere.  And at this point I don't think we have his replacement on the roster.

 

I have no idea what Gettleman will do but we have the money to sign Hardy to a very cap friendly deal in 2014 and 2015. By the time it gets expensive we can dump Johnson, Williams and Stewart. He might be one of the best DEs we have ever had in our franchise history and people are so ready to just dump him.  Ridiculous.

[MHS831]

Lol

Right becaue all Allen did was almost match the nfl sack record in 2012 and never had less than 11 sacks while with the vikings.

 

I love it when someone latches onto the last post of a dialogue and misses the point completely, especially if they preface it with a LOL.  Unless you mean "Left Out of the Loop".

 

I referenced 2013 only (because Gross beat Allen in the game) and he underperformed his salary in 2013 only) and WOW was comparing Hardy to Allen.

 

LOL.

[WOW!!]

I love it when someone latches onto the last post of a dialogue and misses the point completely, especially if they preface it with a LOL. Unless you mean "Left Out of the Loop".

I referenced 2013 only (because Gross beat Allen in the game) and he underperformed his salary in 2013 only) and WOW was comparing Hardy to Allen.

LOL.

No I was comparing the numbers gathered by all top pass rushers. And I'm still waiting on the game logs of the top 5 pass rushers and who they got their numbers against.

Go ahead and make my point for me.

[El Chingon]

It doesn't look like we're going to work out a long term deal before FA begins. Keep in mind, we've been trying to lock him up for months now.

There was even a report during the season that Hardy had rejected a $40 million deal.

We also can't afford to put the franchise tag on him because it would take up almost 12 million of our 16 million cap space.

Hardy will walk and Gettleman will be blamed. In reality, he will do everything possible to hang on to Greg but in the end we simply will not be able to afford him.