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Which highly drafted QBs have actually experienced having a short leash? Most of these guys get multiple years of starting to show what they have.

I actually think Cam Newton is directly to blame for the crazy short leash these QBs are given now. He was so good so early in his career that he reset the standard for young QB play. Before he showed up it wasn't uncommon for the learning curve to be a full two or three seasons. The high draft pick guys that had short careers prior to him typically had injuries or off field issues.

As long as it's not another WR or TE.

1. Find a way to get to the QB with 4 2. Build the OL for now and the future That's the only 2 goals I care about currently with high draft capital. Fill the other spots in FA.

Solak at ESPN ranks the best available FAs, good and bad for us. 1. Edge rusher Good year to need ... any sort of edge rusher at all (that's us) Bad year to need ... a truly elite dude (unless you'd like to send two first-rounders for Maxx Crosby) 2. Interior offensive line Good year to need ... a guard (we have our guards) Bad year to need ... a really big center (we need a center) 6. Linebacker Good year to need ... a difference-maker Bad year to need ... a difference-maker and not have a top-10 pick 7. Offensive tackle Good year to need ... a starter for 2027 Bad year to need ... a starter for 2026 (looks like Nijman for us) https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47958363/2026-nfl-offseason-ranking-positions-free-agency-draft-class-deep-thin

Fins giving the Canucks all they can handle. US winning Gold vs anyone is fine, but beating Canada in the Gold Medal game would be great.

I think that’s all a part of the right answer. I think it really boils down to a combination of bad teams and drafting dudes who really should not be drafted as high as they are.

Darnold, Mahomes (3), Stafford, Manning, Flacco, Eli, Rodgers, and Big Ben were all 1st round QBs some had to get traded to better teams and Brady makes up 7 of the other wins. So I'm seeing Hurts, Foles, Russ, Brees, and Brad Johnson as the only non-Brady QBs that weren't originally taken in the 1st round. Foles and Johnson were absolutely carried by their loaded teams. So the odds of drafting a Super Bowl winning QB not in the first round are really low and two of the recent 5 not named Brady are QBs you wouldn't want to really build around. Hell Foles is probably available right now. If you are looking for any sort of odds from this data is might be to sign a former 1st round QB that struggled on a bad team or keep drafting 6th round QBs and hope they magically turn into Brady.... There is also the build and elite defense and plug whoever you want back there with Hurts, Foles, Russ, and possibly Darnold.

I think evaluating QBs making the transition to the NFL is just a lot harder and more nuanced than draftniks make it out to be. That and the rookie wage scale means that if you don't have a franchise QB on the roster and you think this guy might be one you're almost forced to draft him now that you're protected from giving that guy a future HOFer type contract before he ever plays an NFL down. The expectation for mist of these guys to play right away is also not helping IMO.

Plenty of good teams made it to Super Bowls and some even won with meh QBs. Takes solid defense, good offensive planning and play calling and a helluva lot of magic. And I think the great QB elevating a team thing is overplayed too much. History just doesn't bear it out. Sure, it can lift a moderately good team like Mahomes did with the Chiefs, or Hurts did with the Eagles. And one can argue about Brady and the Pats (or even Bucs) but if you look at those Patriot and Buccaneer teams... there was something very solid in place already. Heck, the whole idea that a single player can make or break an NFL team is vastly overplayed. The Cowboys have had a roster full of "star" players for decades now and have gotten bupkus in return. The Raiders have chased everything they could and have floundered mightily. The Giants have had star after star and nothing. It's just hard to sell posters of a team. Give the marketing people a star though...

Seems you found the "exception" to the OP. Eli wasn't actually drafted by the Giants. But that's the only team he ever played for since he refused to go to San Diego.

Because the teams/FOs suck. The way I figure it, if one team can win with a Matthew Stafford or Sam Darnold, then another can, especially since they drafted them. Again, the reason that they didn't win a championship is because FOs and HCs aren't doing good jobs at the end of the day with team building, identifying strengths and weaknesses, and ultimately putting QBs into the best situations to succeed.

I get the argument, but I feel like half of the super bowls won in that time frame have been by Brady or Mahomes

I think an interesting follow up would be how many of those QBs went on to win a Super Bowl at all. From some quick chatGPT questions, it seems only 3 of them (Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Sam Darnold) have gone on to win a Super Bowl as a starter. While teams picking in the top 5 generally aren’t great organizations, I think the fact that 34/37 haven’t won Super Bowls can’t just be pinned on the organizations. Maybe quite a few of those guys never should have been top 5 picks. Here’s looking at guys like Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Joey Harrington, Bryce Young, Tua, Mark Sanchez, and the list goes on and on. Maybe there is just something wrong with QB draft evaluations, as many analysts thought the majority of those 37 dudes were top 5 picks.

I honestly wouldn't draft a QB if my team earned the first pick, unless we're talking Luck, Cam or Stafford level talent available. Generational type guys that can lift a bad team. They are rare breeds though. Trade back for a king's ransom and come back when you've gotten your ish together - see Chicago bears. As far as yards and scores trending down, I think it has a lot to do with how teams are playing defense now. Most defenses are in some form of nickel/dime most of the game, with exotic blitz packages using DBs to pressure the QB. They're taking away the passing game, and teams built to pass without a complimentary run game to keep the defense honest will struggle. Maybe RBs will become top draft picks again.

How many made it to the SB? Cam was drafted #1 and almost won, do we think he wasn't worth the pick? lol Same with Joe Burrow.

A big time standup LB (QB of the defense), improve the pass rush, improve oline depth. Get lucky with injuries. They can win over 6.5 games. Fail in any one of those areas and the bottom falls out pretty quickly.

I'm not for picking and choosing when you get your QB. I think you have to strike when the iron is hot and the opportunity presents itself. But you're right about the fact that most of the teams landing those top 5 picks are just bad organizations that fail to build a good overall roster. I do think they're going to do some mire rule tweaking soon to further benefit offenses. Offensive ststs were booming for years but have been trending downward now for a few years. The NFL knows that it's offense that drives the casual viewer and this most recent SB is probably going to be the impetus to further meddle with the game to get those yards and scoring trending upward again. I think they're going to do something to help OLs with pass protection, I'm just not sure what.

Teams drafting a QB in the top 5 are usually just really bad personnel wise and/or not smart in the front office. Establish a strong front office and coaching staff that drafts well for multiple seasons. Then and only then do you go in for a QB. A good team is not drafting in the top 5, even if you have mediocre QB play. A good QB on a bad team won't win Super Bowls. An average QB on a really talented roster and FO can pull it off.

A'Shawn Robinson is a prime candidate for cap cut. I think he's a good player but his production could be replaced early in the draft. I don't believe in Wharton and B. Brown is a NT.

Everyone always acts like a top pick is the only way to find a franchise QB but in this current century it has empirically not led to championships.

so much depends on the draft and free agency. At this point, considering the schedule, I would not bet that we win over 6 games.

Consider the source

And he needs to pull his head out of his ass about calling plays. He doesn't have the talent/ability to be both HC and OC yet and it shows.

Yes, and don't think they're convinced this offense can get on track to compete. Dan will need to knock it out of the park this free agency and draft to give this team a chance to have a winning record.