BrianS

I'm a fan of numbers, as an IT analyst you kinda gotta be. Not sure that in the case of the Carolina Panthers it needed much analysis or data to see that our most glaring need, in a world of wins and losses, was a QB. I do find it interesting that moneyball says the Jets can win with Darnold and the most important thing they can do with the #2 pick in the draft is take a tackle. Following that up, the 49'ers take . . . a QB? They have a QB who went 13-3 in 2019. In that system. Computer modeling is never perfect . . . fortunately for us humans. What I would find interesting is to see the data on how previous draft prospects fared in relation to their pre-draft computed "value".

Don't hate the stat, but do learn to put it in context. Sure, Teddy gets his 70% completion rate. Great, we all know he's checking it down. Guess who also gets 70%? Aaron Rodgers. Deshaun Watson. Josh Allen (69.2). And those guys are rippin' it.

But . . . why?

So many people keep trying to compare Fields to players like Cam, Vick, RG3, etc . . . they are completely missing who Fields is. Fields can actually THROW the ball well. No, he doesn't have that absolute CANNON that Newton did . . . but he doesn't need it. He has an above average NFL arm. There should honestly be no physical questions about Justin Fields. My only concern for the player is whether he can put it all together above the shoulders. I've seen flashes. When he is on he can LIGHT IT UP. But I understand the questions and concerns. I like him. I'd like us to take him if he's available. Way more than Lance. If you have questions about Fields, you should have four times the questions about Lance. Lawrence and Wilson are the two who seem very clear. After that, waters get muddy.

Trask didn't look that good at the pro day tbh. This is a guy I like, but his pro day was up and down. He's definitely not a day one guy. His ball placement at all depths was inconsistent. His deep ball didn't look nearly as good as I thought it would. I didn't see enough demonstration of touch. I hope the young man does well, he has some good intangibles.

That draft is the dream for Carolina. No way it falls that clean. Atlanta is going to pick a QB, nothing else makes sense. "Matt Ryan!!11!11!" Dude is 37 by start of next season. AT BEST he's got a couple years left. The FO there needs to realize that if they've done their job, they won't be picking this high again (just like ours). They've got an aging QB on big money and an opportunity to get a young franchise guy. I just can't see Atlanta passing on a QB . . . ESPECIALLY if SF goes Jones. I also cannot see a scenario where Cincy, Detroit and Miami **ALL** pass on tackles. One of those three will take a tackle, with Cincy the most likely given their experience with Burrow last season.

Trading back is a pipe dream. The only reason someone will trade up (the other half of the "trade back" equation) is if there's a QB there. If the QB is there, we take him. If no QB on the board, the pick isn't going to hold the value. Take the LT. If you get to the point where your team is a QB away from winning it all, THEN you trade the farm to get your guy.

Yea, he makes some good points there. I do see a few questionable decisions. But look at the overall body of work here. Dude completed 73% of his passes this season. Let that sink in a minute. 73% completions. And he wasn't throwing a bunch of bubble screens and hitches. He was ripping it. No way this guy is available at 8. I don't think this guy is available at 3.

Sort of . . . CC was preparing to play a game that weekend, but their opponent cancelled. BYU was *not* preparing to play at all. And like I said, low prep time tends to favor the defense. Watching BYU's Oline in that game, yea, they were definitely not ready.

With literally zero prep time, coming all the way across the country to the highest ranked team they played all season. Remember, on zero prep, defense is generally ahead. Using that CC game as the "knock" on Wilson has always bothered me. Honestly, without Wilson, BYU isn't even in that game.

The number is actually right at 50% success rate for first round QB prospects since 2000. FWIW, all other rounds combined is around 10%. It's been a while since I did the research, but I can't remember off the top of my head any first round with multiple QB's selected that made it to 100% success rate. Maybe this year is the "golden generation". Who knows. The problem teams face now, and the reason why teams are now desperate to find "the guy", is that the NFL has forced this on them. The rules that allow more scoring all revolve around the passing game, placing greater emphasis on having that elite level QB pulling the strings. Look no further than our very own Carolina Panthers. We had eight games last season where our offense had a chance to tie or win the game in the fourth quarter. We lost all eight. How much different would our season have been if we could magically swap TB5 for TB12 just for the final drive?

We already have Alex Smith. We don't need him again. Darnold is what he is. He was an inconsistent QB with an average arm and questionable decision making when he came out. He's still that. Minshew on the other hand, I can get behind. So yes, the Jags are 7-13 with Minshew at QB. Not great. Bear in mind, that with every other QB not named Minshew over the last two years they are 0-12. His numbers look good. Good completion %, high TD's, low INT's. What more do you want? I honestly don't understand why they won't support him. Imagine the draft haul they could get by trading that pick this year.

Here's all his throws from youtube:

Our chances of getting a QB revolve mostly around whether the 49'ers are serious about drafting Jones at three. If that's a real deal, we have a chance. Otherwise, nope, no chance.

I think he's going to be gone by 39, but he's a nice player. Even if he were there, he'd need to be the best player on our board by a pretty good margin for us to ignore other needs.

Fits and Rhule.

I'm certainly not going to complain if Fields is there for us. I like his upside and his down the field mentality.

I like Parsons. A lot. Gonna be a great player. For someone else. If he were there in round 2, I'd strongly consider him. But not at the top of round 1.

Take that 40 time with a HUGE grain of salt. Dude was project to run 4.5 to 4.6 at his pro day and was not invited to the Combine last year. Obviously, zero down side for us. If he works out, great! If not, great!

I see this said all the time and it's still not realistic. Who is going to trade up and why? You only go up that high if you're chasing a QB. If there's a QB there, we're taking him. If not, there is nothing to attract offers. Trading down is a scenario generated by other teams, not by the Panthers.

That's not relevant at all. In the case of ATL, they have a very old QB on the books, and a very expensive QB at that. Draft Trey Lance, give Matt Ryan a year to teach and then cut. Poof. Trey Lance gets the time he needs and Atlanta get the QB they will need within the next couple years. For Detroit, it's harder to pinpoint. Yes, they have Goff, but do they believe in him? I'm not sure they do. As a Panthers fan, I certainly *hope* they do, but there are a lot of question marks around Goff. Once again, same rule applies. They can have their current QB teach for a year or even two, and then cut ties. Fields as a regional player or Lance as a developmental player would go down well in the Motor City.

*IF* all of the "Jones to the 49'ers" smoke is actually a fire and it happens, the draft would suddenly become super interesting. I still think Atlanta takes their QB of the future, but it at least gives us some hope that one of those guys drops. Detroit also scares me.

If Fields asks for it, sure. 51 is the only number I'm *sure* is retired. I believe there is an unspoken, unwritten agreement that 89 and 90 don't go out. I expect we'll see the same with 59. I suspect the Panthers will hand out #1 if we draft Fields and if Fields asks for it. The split was not handled super well, and it's still pretty new. With the bevy of advisors that draft picks have these days, I expect that Fields will be advised to contact Cam in order to prevent an all out fiasco. I expect Cam will bless the request and we'll all move on.

Agree. They could have stayed at 12 and got Jones if he was their guy. Don't get me wrong, I'm *THRILLED* as a Panthers fan if the 49'ers take Jones. Over the moon. Makes it that much more likely one of the actual first round QB's falls to us.

It wasn't his best game, yet they still put up 42 points and won. Threw for 300 yards and two TD's, ran for another. I mean, ok, I'd take that as a worst game over . . . pretty much anything a Panthers QB has done since 2018.