Peon Awesome

Asking price for Burns just went up to THREE 1st round picks

Yeah it's one of the nice things about McCaffrey going to the 49ers is we can see how a good offensive mind schemes him. I have a feeling it's going to make the deal look like a bargain for them. Still will seem like an OK deal for us cause we weren't going to be able to unlock his full potential anyway.

Another super impressive stat from PFF

My main point is people seem to way overvalue a late 1st or early 2nd round draft pick. Half of them don't even merit a 2nd contract. Who have we drafted in that range in the last 10 years? Yetur Gross Matos, Greg Little, Vernon Butler, and Kelvin Benjamin. No, seriously. Depending on your definition of late 1st/early 2nd (this range is 28-38), that is the entire list. No cherry picking. Yeah there are gems even in the 6th round every year. The point is, what's more likely: McCaffrey stays reasonably healthy for the next 2 years and serves as the ideal safety net for a rookie qb or you find a player even 80% as good as McCaffrey at that range? None of McCaffrey's injuries are harbingers of long term issues. Hell he could have probably returned and played a lot more the last 2 years if we were playing for anything. You're gambling either way. Either gambling you'll find a stud at pick 35 or gambling that McCaffrey stays healthy. If someone gives us a pick in the middle of the 1st or two 1sts like the Panthers reportedly want, that's a different story; odds would shift significantly. But late 1st/early 2nd? I'm not convinced.

Yeah, that's hitting us whether we keep him or not. So any decisions on keeping him (or any player really) is contingent on whether we think he's worth his base salary, in this case the $12 million. If you cut him, you don't get a refund on the dead cap and you don't magically replace his production for free. You're going to use that $12 million. I don't think we'll easily replace it with that money unless we get a steal in the draft. So I'd keep him. I can see the argument otherwise, especially if you worry about his injury history but everything is a calculated risk.

I'd plan on keeping him for the duration of his contract IF HEALTHY. That's the benefit of the non-guaranteed money. If he suffers another major injury, we can get out unscathed. If he doesn't, I'd happily pay $12 million per year when the going rate for a good wr is now easily over $20 million per year.

Dude, everyone knows this team is a complete dumpster fire. The people advocating for McCaffrey are saying maybe we shouldn't give away one of the only good things left on this team for cents on the dollar.

Does having more receptions mean he's being "used as a receiver more"? I'd say you have a point if McCaffrey was being lined up as a wide receiver several times per game, but that's not true. He's catching passes out of the backfield the vast majority of the time and using his shiftiness to get a chunk of yardage. Maybe the last game where we neutered PJ there was more of an effort to get the ball in his hands but for the most part this year, it feels like McCaffrey is getting his receiving yardage in spite of McAdoo mostly ignoring his abilities as a receiver. Hell he has sat back as an extra blocker more times than not particularly in the first 3-4 games. And again, our offense is laughably bad. Think about how many yards he would have with Mahomes throwing him passes. You're making too much of an effort to downplay McCaffrey's ability.

Double post, my bad

Yeah if there's ever a team to point to as an example, it's the Giants. We've been basically the Giants until this year. Solid defense, frequently injured RB, inept coaching, lack of a franchise qb. Now they're competing week in and week out and tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage. As good as Daboll has been, they wouldn't be 5-1 trading Saquon for a fraction of his value the way half of the Huddle is clamoring with McCaffrey

The Chiefs used their 2020 1st round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. You think that's a smarter move than even a 1 year rental on McCaffrey for close to league minimum salary? They would easily be the super bowl favorite. Honestly it's a down year for the NFL as a whole and Kansas City and Buffalo seem like the only 2 teams with any legit shot at the Super Bowl. You can give up pick 32 for McCaffrey and nearly guarantee your super bowl win, or you can sit on your thumbs, hope for the best and try to draft another Clyde Edwards-Helaire with that precious pick you were just too damn smart to give up. I don't doubt for one second that KC and Buffalo would happily get on the phone with Fitterer if their 1st round pick was enough for the Panthers. I just think the team is genuine that it's not and I don't blame them. The last pick of the 1st round is not going to help a rookie qb and the team as a whole more than McCaffrey will.

McCaffrey is 4th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage, only behind Saquon, Tyreek Hill and Nick Chubb. That's with him operating within the worst offense in the NFL. I hardly think people will look at that and scoff at the lack of production

Well in a world where a perennial 1100 yard receiver can be neutered to 35 yards per game, it'd be naive to think the coaching staff isn't holding some of them back. Plus I said presumably half of them could fit the bill. Are you that pessimistic to think that's not the case and they all suck regardless of coaching/schemes? I'm sorry but if we have to replace half the roster with free agents to improve the team, there is literally no pathway to relevance. We should just accept being the 2010s Browns and soak in all the top 5 picks for the next 8 years. I'd prefer to hold out for a better outlook than that.

Biggest problem with your post is relevance to this situation. 1. McCaffrey wouldn't be breaking the bank exactly. They'd get him for 3.65 years, $36 million. $10 million per year, zero guarantees, isn't exorbitant for a productive starter on pace for 1900 yards from scrimmage with the worst qb play in the NFL. Also if they're worried about paying him, rent him for a year for less than $1 million en route to the Super Bowl and trade him in the off-season to recoup some of your lost draft picks. I doubt anyone is going to cry over losing pick 32 if they win the super bowl. 2. You talk about how important the passing game is while ignoring the fact that McCaffrey is the best receiving RB in the NFL. If you don't think Andy Reid would salivate at ways to have McCaffrey be a nightmare mismatch in the passing game, I don't know what to tell you.

Your assessment of what we need is assuming we've maximized the talent of our current roster. Do you agree our coaching staff sucks? If so, how many of the things you mentioned do we actually need vs how many players' talents are being squandered by coaching ineptitude? I mean what combination of Tremble, TMJ, Shenault, Shi Smith, Cade Mays, Haynes, Hoskins, Roy, McCall, Brandon Smith, and Barno can't fill at least half of that, especially with functional coaching. Also if you're worried about depth, that's what the draft and cheap free agency signings are for. Those don't break the bank. A QB in the 1st, good coaching staff and then fluff out the roster as needed with free agency and rounds 2+ of the draft is really not a tall task. A rookie QB also is huge for cap room. We'll be flush for years until they're due for an extension, assuming they deserve one.

While I don't advocate trading Burns because good pass rushers are so valuable and hard to come by, it make more sense than trading McCaffrey for a couple reasons. 1. Burns hasn't signed a big extension so its our one chance to get compensation for him IF we don't plan on resigning him. McCaffrey meanwhile we've already committed a bunch of money to so we'd be spending a lot of money for him to not play for us. There's minimal dead cap for trading Burns and tons for McCaffrey 2. Pass rushers are valued more, so we're more likely to get better compensation for Burns 3. Burns is our one good pass rusher but we've got good contributors throughout our defense and could weather his loss a bit easier than McCaffrey who is 95% of our entire offense. I don't think we should trade either, but if we can get 2 1sts or a 1st and 2nd for Burns, you could at least justify it. https://sportsnaut.com/brian-burns-trade-landing-spots/ Also this is an interesting article. Gives 3 potential trades for Burns. The returns are awesome. 1) Trade to Baltimore for Ojabo (their 2022 2nd rd pick), 2023 1st and 2024 2nd 2) Trade to Seattle for Denver's 1st from the Russell Wilson trade (currently top 10), and both their own 2023 2nd and the 2nd they got from the Wilson trade. Plus Drew Lock 3) Trade to Philadelphia for the 1st they got from New Orleans (currently top 10), Philly's own 1st in 2024 and Andre Dillard Hell if those are the expected returns and you're not sure Burns is worth $25 million per year in an extension, you definitely need to take those calls.

Yeah I think the bottom line is that our cap situation is fine. Anyone worrying about out lack of cap space next year doesn't understand how the cap works. We will get well under it very easily without making a single difficult cut. The real question is how. I'm ok with all your suggestions although I'd prefer to see if Shaq would take a team friendly extension. Why not add 2 years and $4 million to his current contract and turn it into a 3 year, $28 million deal? Basically you ask if you'd rather pay Shaq $11 million to not be on your team or $9 million each for the next 3 to be on your team. Granted he might say F you and happily prefer being cut than staying with this organization, but I'd at least try. The question is what can Shaq expect to get as a free agent if we cut him. More than 3 years $17 million (which is the added money if he takes our extension rather than being cut)? Plus there's some comfort in not relocating your whole life. I feel like that's a win win.

I'm not counting on any qbs being able to come in this year and demonstrate they can be our franchise QB. I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion we are drafting a QB in the first. So I'm only suggesting Darnold with the hope he makes our offense semi-watchable so I have a reason to turn on the TV on Sundays. I'm still counting on the team spiraling to the #1 pick and sending Darnold packing to free agency.

Half of McCaffrey's "salary" is money we already paid him whether he's on the team or not. Plus he's more than a rb; he's our leading receiver by a comfortable amount. Let's say we get those 2 2nds (probably late 2nds since only contending teams will want him). You could use the two 2nds to try to draft a new starting rb and WR 2 to replace his production. The combined salaries will probably be like 7 million. CMC's salary that we save in a trade is like $11.8 million. So we save $4 million and change. You want to replace CMC with a couple unproven rookies to have an extra $4 million; basically the amount of money it takes to pay Cam Erving? Is that really a worthwhile gamble? Even a late 1st, we're talking players like Clyde Edwards Helaire or Josh Jacobs and 1st round salaries are more, so probably saving $7 million. You'd rather have Edwards-Helaire + $7 million or McCaffrey? $7 million nets you a decent starter at a less valued position like safety or linebacker. Probably a lot easier to have a smaller drop-off at those positions with a cheap veteran or mid round draft pick than replacing McCaffrey with even a 1st. To me, I see a route to contention quickly with a top rookie qb, good new coach and McCaffrey. I have a much tougher time seeing that with the above minus CMC plus Donta Foreman or a rookie rb.

Yeah I forgot about Eason. I think that goes to point 4. Just keep swapping qbs until you've thrown everything out there. I still want to see Sam play at least one game mostly cause he at least had that good stretch to start last year so maybe there's a chance he'll be better and we're paying him a bunch anyway, but I'd have a short leash and switch to Eason if he continues to show his poor play. We could start Eason next week at this point and keep playing him if he's any good and make Sam a moot point. But I figure he's going to have his lumps especially in this system.

As I look ahead to 2023, my goal is to optimize our chances for the #1 pick without compromising the opportunity to build a perennial contender and still make the 2022 season watchable. How? 1. Don't trade good players away without a ransom. We need the foundations of a team for the future. Unless the player has no future with us, hold onto them. It will make this year more watchable too. Imagine how horrible this team would be without McCaffrey. 2. Play some of the young guys especially in places without a clear cut veteran presence. I'm looking at you, Terrace Marshall Jr. Or even players like Cade Mays or Brandon Smith especially as first man up with any injuries. We have to see what we have and develop them into future assets or figure out sooner that they're unlikely to be in our long term plans. It's a shame Corral is injured or this would be a great time to roll the dice with him. 3. Play aggressive as hell (basically the opposite of the Rams game). I'm talking fake punts left and right, go for every 4th and short, suicide blitzes, let it fly downfield. Probably more likely to make us lose but be way more fun to watch in the process. A win-win. 4. Keep the QB carousel going. Get Darnold on the field the moment he's healthy. It will at least add intrigue to see if he can do anything with a decent offensive line and healthy McCaffrey. What do you say? Anything you hope to see or that would make watching our games worth your precious time on Sundays?

Here's the problem with that explanation. There aren't only two options here of force PJ to play aggressively or roll over and give up. The obvious decision was use the first time out to get the ball back with a minute left, see if you get decent field position on the punt return and then start with a conservative play call like a quick screen or run with McCaffrey. If you get 6+ yards, we're past the 40 and only need 25 yards to get into fg range. You're telling me with 1-2 timeouts (depending on whether we needed to use one on 1st down) and close to 1 minute on the clock, PJ couldn't handle that? And if 1st and/or 2nd down go poorly, you can run/kneel it and let the clock run out then. Rams didn't even have any timeouts. Just an indefensible decision and if you're the offense and that didn't piss you off that the coach had so little confidence in you he was worried, despite the Rams having zero timeouts, that you were more likely to turn it over and give up points than get in fg range, you need to have some basic self respect or get out of the league.

We should probably review the data on offensive-minded coaches since McVay was hired and kicked off this obsession. 2018 1. Pat Shurmur 2. Frank Reich 3. Matt Nagy 2019 1. Kliff Kingsbury 2. Freddie Kitchens 3. Matt LaFleur 4. Adam Gase 5. Zac Taylor 2020 Kevin Stefanski 2021 1. Nick Sirianni 2. Arthur Smith 2022 1. Brian Daboll 2. Kevin O'Connell 3. Mike McDaniel 4. Nathaniel Hackett 5. Josh McDaniels I didn't include coaches with an offensive background that had solidified themselves as head coaches more recently since that doesn't seem to be exactly the theme (e.g. Jon Gruden, Bruce Arians, Doug Pedersen) although you could argue for that. Or Dan Campbell since he was a tight ends coach which is a bit different than the above. What are the trends? 1. Be wary of coaches who may have ridden the coattails of elite QBs (Hackett, Gase, +/- McDaniels) unless they were clearly involved in the growth of said QB (Daboll) Possible 2023 examples: Leftwich, Dorsey, Bienemy 2. Be wary of coaches who served under a historically good head coach that has their fingerprints on the whole team (McDaniels, Nagy) 3. Probably doesn't need to be said after the traumatic experience of Rhule, but just to really emphasize it, be wary of college coaches (Kingsbury, Rhule, Urban Meyer). Other than that, it's a mixed bag. Even coaches like Zac Taylor have looked pretty bad outside of his super bowl run; he's probably a Rivera level guy who isn't very good but can do enough not to completely impede elite play from his qb. Daboll looks the best on this list but it's so early only 6 games in. And he molded Josh Allen from a possible bust to the MVP frontrunner and possible hall of famer. How many candidates with that resume are you going to get? With that in mind, Steichen seems like the clear cut top choice. He oversaw the development of Herbert and Hurts. Then perhaps Kellen Moore depending on how the Cowboys play out the year, although they are really riding on the strength of their defense. Maybe Ben Johnson if the Lions keep up pace and the Pats game isn't the start of their descent back to Earth although that's a quick ascent from coordinator to coach. Guess it's good that we have the earliest jump start on the hiring

As an aside, the post-Rhule era is also looking bright for my McCaffrey-led fantasy football team

Mentioning for no real reason but if the Panthers win today, they'll only be 1 game back of the last wild card spot