Sgt Schultz

They haven’t won a Super Bowl since he bought the team, so that makes him one of the worst owners in the league. Or so goes the logic of some. Let’s put it this way: you are an investor with shares of stock in a company. A normal investor, who does not own enough shares to influence things one bit, but your shares represent a fair chunk of change to you. The company hit some peaks, but now looks like it is struggling to remain relevant in a changing market. The management keeps trying to add a widget or two to the product line, but the performance, and thus your share value, keeps declining. Not a steep decline and not without some ups, but overall, the trend is somewhere between stagnation and downward. They can the CEO, and the new CEO lays out a long-term plan for success. He starts making high level moves that look conducive to his plan. He does not fire the COO or CFO right away, but after giving them a chance to adjust to the new atmosphere and not seeing any promise, he does. He hires a dynamic young CEO and a CFO that has been around the block at least once. They completely revamp the product line, a process that is is not finished yet. Do you sell your shares because the bottom line has not improved yet, or do you stay the course seeing a pattern, or do you buy more because you not only see the pattern, you like it, believe it will lead to a promising future, and thus feel the shares are a bargain right now?

Let me be the first to add this gem: Superb Owl.

They will always be the Foreskins to me. Other appropriate names could be the Lobbyists, Felons, Beltway Bandits, Bureaucrats, Red Ink, Windbags, and Corruption. I saw some site where one of their fans suggested the FourAndTwelves.

For whatever reason, I have been increasing jumping on that bus. I still think Miami is the best target if we want to move up. The cost for #3 should be noticeably less than #2, and Miami has less to lose by moving down to #8 and picking up some other stuff in the process. The list of players that fit their needs should still be pretty well stocked at #8. As for the Jets, well, they need a lot. A whole lot. More than us. They could still grab Fields at #2, but that would leave us with Wilson.

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. If Lawrence were somehow the pick, then I think he would start (largely because that would mean we wound up with the #1 pick). Fields or Wilson could be the week 1 starter if they were selected, but the odds would be slim. Beyond that the odds go down even more. People need to remember this was never a one-year rebuild. Tepper warned us as much. This was an entire reconstruction of the roster, organization, and philosophy. TB was brought in as the immediate starter because he knew the offense, essentially given a two year contract with a decision point for a third year if he blossomed into the role and became the answer for the long haul. It was structured that way, most likely, because everybody realized we had many more needs than just at QB. Well, everybody except about 30-40% of The Huddle. Otherwise, find the heir-apparent and let him watch for a bit. The NFL is faster than college and DBs are generally smarter (with the possible exception of some of ours). I'm sure it looks even more so from the field, whether between the sidelines on on one of them. Also, keep in mind our depth chart at QB is basically one deep. It has been for a couple of years. Might be nice to have some depth on the depth chart at the position. We still have a lot more needs than just QB. Fewer than last year at this time, but still plenty. Unless the relationship between TB and the team has been slaughtered, the original plan (potentially less the possibility TB is the answer) still looks pretty reasonable. The cost of breaking the lease with TB this year is pretty stiff, so unless someone is willing to "sublet" the place, he is still here.

The thing about a secondary is one player can make a huge difference. Think back to 2015. We had a great front 7, and as usual, the questions were about our secondary. Then Josh Norman became a shutdown CB out of nowhere, and it changed the entire dynamic. He allowed the safeties to cheat toward other receivers/zones. It will also help, as the OP says, if the DL can generate pressure, especially if they are a threat to do that without a need to send a 5th rusher into the mix. They don't necessarily need to get sacks if they accelerate the QBs mental clock. Sacks are great, don't get me wrong. The difference between 3rd and 7 after a throw away and 3rd and 16 after a sack can not be understated, although last year either would have resulted in a conversion. But seeing a QB throw the ball sooner than he wanted because he feels pressure (whether it is actually there or not) is the next-best thing.

I have no idea what this team is doing anymore. After all, weren't the Texans saying any deal for Watson had to include Hajrullahu? I think the Dolphins said the same thing regarding a trade for their #3 pick. The cap hit for cutting him has to be backbreaking.

Their cap situation has always been worse than the raw number because they have so few people in the number (41 per Spotrac). They have about $6M in cap space but need 10 more players. While the top 51 evens that out, it can't when you have less than 51 signed. It will not age well next year, either. Next year they have 21 accounting for a cap number only $21 million below the projected cap of $209M Even now, Ryan's contract is NEVER a bargain to unload. His cap hit finally overtakes his potential dead cap in 2022, but even then his dead cap is over $40M.

Excellent post, Khyber. To add (or detract), I see my favorite news source has interviewed Marty Hurney. https://sports.theonion.com/report-most-nfl-teams-just-1-or-2-overpriced-free-agen-1819576251

And remember folks, "you heard it here first." He says, as about 40% of the board is running wild, having keenly missed the sarcasm fonts.

Problem is we were 18th (I think that is right) with a QB getting the ball out in about 2.5 seconds. With a WCO-type release time, you have to be better than 18th. Ask yourself how that 18th-ranked OL would look if the time to release was at the league mean, which I think is just about 2.75 seconds. A quarter of a second doesn't sound like much, but quarter seconds are the difference between plays succeeding or failing a lot in the NFL. That's the problem with ranking OLs. You almost have to find a way to adjust what they did against a common baseline. New Orleans' OL is almost certainly going to be better on paper than Cleveland's (I think Mayfiled had the longest time to release), but are they really better? And were they better on paper because they did what was asked of them, or did the offense adjust to their limitations? In New Orleans case, it was almost certainly the former, but in the Panthers' case, we were bottom half based on what was asked of them. Regardless, if I am trying to run a WCO or offshoot, I am not happy about the OL ranking 18th against the rest of the league, given the numbers are not adjusted.

They are not the first team to try and keep pushing the day of cap reckoning down the road, but contrary to popular belief, it always catches up eventually. And when it does, it is not pretty. The longer it is kicked down the road, the worse it gets.

That would indeed prove the rule that the worst thing you can ever do to anyone is give them exactly what they want.

That is the big question. It really depends on whether Miami is actively shopping that pick and if so, what the other teams are putting on the table. It also depends on whether their nose grew at all when they said they are fine moving forward with Tua. Does Miami see CMC as a better solution at RB than a draft pick? Is that need worth addressing with a CMC-level player? Like any discussion like this, it is all speculation right now.

I am not going to speculate on that answer one bit! I am not even sure what the answer is for Panther-world.

On a number of fronts (and just limiting it to the Panthers), we certainly do.

Let's just say the list is "interesting" and leave it at that.

The idea of trading up with Miami came up yesterday on some thread. Watson was not part of that discussion, so it adds a possible second move to this, not a three-team trade. Why would Miami trade for CMC? The rationale goes like this. They are close to being a solid playoff team. Their needs going into draft day are WR, RB, OL, LB, and an Edge rusher. They say they are set with Tua, and I'll take them at their word (more later). They have the #3 and #18 pick in the first round. I do not believe they are actively shopping the #3 pick. If they do, I doubt they will want to move down too far, since, if they are indeed close, the #3 or similar pick is not going to happen again for a while. It, along with the #18 pick guarantee them a shot at plugging two holes with day-one starters. Enter the Panthers. If it is a straight #8 and CMC for #3, the Dolphins stand a good chance of walking out of the first round with three starters in positions of need. They will still be able to draft a WR that should start immediately at #8. If not a WR, a LB (perhaps named Parsons) or OL, or Edge. #18 should give them a starter at one of those positions. CMC plugs their RB hole. That is where I get off the train. We would use the #3 pick to grab our QB from the "big four" pool, certain to get one of them. I think it will be cheaper for us than trying to move to #2 with the Jets, and CMC is probably more attractive to the Dolphins than anybody else ahead of us because it is an acknowledge position of need. But, I think the #3 pick is just part of a very expensive price it would take to get Watson, assuming the Texans decide to trade Watson. The rest of that price could be crippling. A final thought on the Dolphins and Tua (as promised above). The one thing that might cause them to rethink how sold they are on Tua right now is if Watson becomes available to them at a reasonable price. But, I am not sure they will want to mortgage the farm for him, either, and leave filling the other positions of need to chance.

I don't have any concerns about what Tepper has done and said (or that we know he has said) thus far. That aside, suggesting Rivera switch to a 3-4 was probably seen as directing him to do so by Rivera and Hurney. The defense was stinking the joint up, Rivera had no answers other than more of the same, he probably knew he was on thin ice (as did Hurney), so anything Tepper said was likely seen as direction. That is not Tepper's fault, that is the fault of two people who had no answers to offer other than doing more of the same and felt like they were fighting to hang onto their jobs (and rightly so).

Beautiful boy. Best of luck with him. I hope the news is good for everybody involved.

I think that is true, but I can see both happening. The real question is if the Jets think Darnold can recover, can he do it with them or are things so far gone that he needs a complete change? New York is a tough fan base, especially Jets fans who see buzzards circling constantly (and for pretty good reason). All other things being equal, I think the Dolphins are more likely to hang onto the #3 pick. They are close, and they may not have a chance to pick that high again for a while. They can address needs at WR or OL in that spot in a major way. However (a word defined as disregard everything before this word), all other things are not equal. The Dolphins also need a RB and I don't see them pulling that trigger at #3. If they could parlay the #3 pick into CMC and the #8 pick, which will still get them a top-notch WR, OL, or LB (all needs for them) that would be a major win for them. They also have their own #18 pick, and there should be some quality players available in their areas of need there, too. I really don't see the Dolphins moving on from Tua unless maybe they could get their hands on Watson at an acceptable price. And you are right, potentially putting CMC and a top-tier WR with him could greatly enhance Tua's (or anybody's) development. The Dolphins are a lot closer than we are, and a heckuva lot closer than the Jets. That would mean they could potentially fill three positions of need with people who start from day one before the first round is over. For a team that is close, that is hard to pass up.

Brees may be one of those guys like Favre. They continue to trot out there until they are wheeled off after the trainer holds up three fingers, asks them how many, and their response is "Thursday." Brees has been noticeably declining for a couple of years now. I understood his thinking coming into this past year, as the Saints were always rallying for one more run. But the salary cap ramifications may finally catch up with them. If he is seriously considering playing, he may find it to be less fun that he was expecting. I thought Rivers might go down the same path, but he recognized that while his mind still wants to compete, his body has given its all.

I think Jones is the safer pick in that respect. His ceiling is lower, his floor may be higher, and his timeline to be ready to go in the NFL is probably shorter. That is not to say he is the right pick, but safer for somebody looking to go that route. I've heard his name mentioned with New England a lot. That might surprise Peter King unless the Pats trade up.

You are overlooking Stevens major upside: he is one of about six NFL QBs that I have not heard rumors about being traded to twelve different teams to resolve their QB issues.

I like Dak, but I have seen him disappear in critical games too often for him to be worth what he wants. To some degree, I think he is a product of the Dallas Cowboys Hype Machine, that whoever is the Cowboys QB must be great. He's good, but he can't be mentioned with the top tier. The Cowboys performance without him proved what he is worth to that team, but the truth is, a good part of their cratering was on the defensive side of the ball. He would have probably led them to more points and thus potentially more wins, but not enough to make them a contender in anything other than a pathetic division. The Cowboys have problems. But my guess is they tag Dak and try to work out a longer term deal in the process. Still, in big games, I have seen him play the role of Captain Checkdown and not be very effective at it, either. Until he proves he can step up in those situations and not disappear, he can't be considered in the top tier. Nor is he worth top-tier money, especially with the cap going down this year.