Evil Hurney

Here is a summary of historical dead cap usage as far back as OTC had it: These numbers are being reported as a percentage of the base salary cap for that season. As far as 3 year spans go, the highest average dead cap pct goes to: 1) Panthers from 2020-2022 2) Eagles from 2020-2022 3) Texans from 2020-2022 4) Saints from 2015-2017 5) Bills from 2016-2018 Regarding the restructures, they largely aren't a problem. The team trades roster flexibility for financial flexibility in the current season. This works out fine as long as they don't plan to cut (or in the case of DJ, trade) the player that season. They purposely didn't restructure DJ since he was part of trade talks. Over the life of the contract the team still ends up accruing the same cap hit . It just "looks" bad because most of the cap hit comes at the end. (2,4,24 instead of 9,10,11).

Since cap from future years can essentially be used in the current year, I find it more informative to look at a teams 3 year projected cap space to understand a teams cap health. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2025/ A good example of this is the Saints who are already -$91M over the projected cap for 2024. Since there is no penalty for being over the cap in future seasons they can just wait until March of 2024 to pay that bill off with the 2025 and 2026 credit cards. As of this writing, the Panthers have 8th most cap space to spend over the next 3 seasons. Once Burns is extended the long term cap space will go down a bit.

I'd ask for next years 1st. I'd settle for this years 2nd and try to trade it to someone else for their 1st next year (ala Everette Brown). That is actually in line with what a team should expect (maybe a little low) based on the typical cost to move up in the 1st round.

I think there were 2 guys there covet (Stroud and Young), but the #2 pick wasn't for sale. Trading to #3 doesn't guarantee you those guys since LV or IND can jump to #1. Basically this could be the long way to get to pick #2.

Nice post. I also feel like the Panthers got off fairly cheaply in this deal. Quick math (assuming all picks are this year) suggests that the Bears valued DJ Moore as a mid 1st round pick. There were many over the past months that would have happily traded DJ for a mid 1st. Bears & Carolina Trade (treating future picks as end of the round picks) For context I assume Chicago got similar excess value as MIA got from SF in 2021. Calculation assuming future picks are treated as end or round picks this year below. EDIT: I think it's also relevant that AJ Brown without a new contract was traded last season for pick 18 and pick 101 ... pretty close to the value the Panthers just got for DJ Moore.

I'm leaning Bryce. If he was 2" taller and 10-lb heavier he would be the consensus #1. At least he doesn't have tiny hands.

This only works if there is a big gap between QB2 and QB3 (or you catch wind that the Texans don't plan to take your QB1).

Nice work. I think you are in the ballpark for what Shaq would accept based on his comments about not taking a paycut. That said, I'm not sure if his production is worth 1 yr $13M or 2 yr $23M (new money) especially given all the recent LB cuts. Also, that AAV would put him in the top 10 at LB (non-edge). I personally feel like LB should be treated similar to RB in terms of how you fill the position; ILB gets a slight bump due to the leadership duties generally given to that position.

The Bears have more leverage having Houston right behind them. Why would IND move up to #2? They would be spending resources to get the same guy.

After listening to King talk to Eisen (and reading the article in the OP) I am fairly confident the Panthers are the team that has offered three 1st round picks. It's just a matter of the Bears accepting the deal. The compensation mentioned (three 1sts) is right around the LV, ATL, CAR block King later mentions that Poles wants a blue chip player but they only have 6-8 on the board (somehow that just outside the range of pick #9) "Poles wants to be sure he gets a “blue player,” his term for a premier first-rounder—and there may be only six or eight of those when the Bears end up setting their board." Only one of IND, LV, ATL are involved in trade up talks since King mentioned Poles only spoke with 3 teams (in the article) and one of them was farther down [than Carolina] per his conversation with Eisen (around the 2:50 mark of the video). I don't think LV is heavily involved because Poles mentioned Derek Carr (in the article) as an alternative option for some teams. Then again this quote could specifically be about the Panthers. "But then there’s teams that want some certainty because, ‘If I need a quarterback bad, should I do that now when some of these guys, like Derek Carr, are out there?’" I don't think ATL is involved because the timing doesn't make sense (Coach in his 3rd year needs to win) and there isn't any smoke. I think the teams interested in moving to pick #1 are IND, CAR, and TEN/WAS If Poles already has that offer why wait? I think they don't want to drop down to pick #9 and are waiting for IND to up their offer knowing neither IND or CAR will go the veteran route again. Both teams telegraphed this with their lukewarm pursuit of Derek Carr (and Lamar Jackson).

Tampa's best course of action is to clean up the cap this year and let Trask take them to the promised land. It's a 1-2 year rebuild if they get the top QB next year.

Dead cap accelerates. All $17.1M ($5.7M x 3) goes on the cap once cut. There would also be the other $10M GTD since he would have been on the roster in 2024. If they don't restructure (unlikely), it's a dead cap of $27.1M to cut him in March 2025.

Looks like Spotrac has the deets: What the contract could look like with maximum restructuring. [2023] $7.2M cap charge [2024] $13.2M cap charge after converting salary to bonus (as is the way for the Saints) [2025] $33.2M cap charge with another salary to bonus restructure (assuming 2024 restructure) [2026] $48.2M cap charge with another salary to bonus restructure (assuming 2024 & 2025 restructure) [2027 UFA] $48.2M dead money If cut in March 2025, $49.6M dead money (assuming 2024 restructure). I don't think this can be split. If cut in 2026, $46.4M dead money (assuming 2024 & 2025 restructure). This can be split over 2 years if designated as post June.

This deal says to me that DA has 2 years to win. If not he and Carr are out while they blow things up. Just in time to tank for Arch Manning

1. Without details, I'm guessing 3rd year has some type of $30M roster bonus or guaranteed salary. If true and the Saints were to cut him they would have ~$40M in dead cap but "save" $15M vs the cap (pre-June 1). Unless the two decide to part ways, it will almost likely be restructured to spread that guarantee out over another 3-4 years. Basically this is a 2 year deal with an option for an extension. 2. Carr isn't settling for $15M per year. He is pocketing $70M over 2 years ($35M per year) with leverage to get another contract and more money in year 3. The cap charges are just how the accountants decided to spread out that money.

Using this plus Rapsheets numbers puts Carr's cap hits around: 2023: $15M 2024: $15M 2025: $55M (likely a restructure or cut year) 2026: $65M

Bears lose leverage by trading with Houston

Saints now have less than $100M in total cap space to spend over the next 4 seasons. For context, the Falcons have around $600M, Panthers around $500M, and Bucs around $400M in the same timeframe. I feel like the NFL needs to put a limit on how many "void" years a contract can include. Jameis has 3 voided years on his relatively cheap contract!

$100M in guarantees is more than I thought he would get.

Delete

They have Olave. The other two are non-factors due to injury, contract, and legal issues.

Gonna assume it's in the 4 year $150M range. Low salary this year with most of it in a signing bonus. Probably has 1 or 2 void years to spread the bonus.

They are spending their 2025 + 2026 cap space at the moment.

I'm fine with the 2 1sts to get the #3, but I am not fine with 3 1sts to get to #1. Part of the allure of the Rookie QB is the contract. If you are missing too many first rounders on cheap contracts you essentially nullify that benefit due to the extra impact FA you have to sign. The downside is that you can ONLY trade up to #3 on draft day IMO. If you trade early the Colts jump you and now you have traded an extra 1st to get AR who won't be ready to start until 2024 at the earliest. Either Levis or AR will be there at pick 9 (possibly both if the Raiders get a vet QB).

That was Dan Morgan next to Fitt