Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

NOLA.com breaks down all 128 NFCS Scenarios (Caution: Bayou Maths)

Jase

By Jase,
in Carolina Panthers

Recommended Posts

Jase Apprentice

Jase

Posted
Posted

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2014/12/128_ways_the_crazy_nfc_south_race_could_end_a_guide_to_the_final_3_weeks.html

 

Odds of winning the division

Team Percent

Falcons 45.71

8-8 record 11.36

7-9 record 30.47

6-10 record 3.89

Saints 36.13

8-8 record 16.53

7-9 record 19.26

6-10 record 0.34

Panthers 18.09

7-8-1 record 11.2

6-9-1 record 6.89

Based on probabilities of 128 outcomes occurring using Sagarin ratings.

 

Could one team clinch a playoff berth before the final week?

Yes, Atlanta and New Orleans both have a chance to clinch a week early and then rest for the playoffs in Week 17.

 

If the Falcons lose to Pittsburgh on Sunday and then the Saints beat the Bears on Monday night, the Saints could clinch the division by beating Atlanta on Dec. 21 if the Panthers lose to either Tampa or Cleveland.

 

The Falcons could also clinch the division on Dec. 21 by beating the Saints, assuming they beat the Steelers, the Saints lose to the Bears and the Panthers lose at least once.

 

The Saints could be eliminated from contention with a loss on Dec. 21 if Atlanta beats Pittsburgh OR Carolina beats both Tampa and Cleveland. (This is the case even if the Saints beat Chicago on Monday night).

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jase Apprentice

Jase

Posted
  • Author
Posted

There are 25 scenarios where the panthers win the division.

Of those,

14 scenarios where we're in if we win out,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to TB,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to CLE,

and only 1 scenario where we're in if we lose to ATL.

Also, there are 2 scenarios where we win out and don't make it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jase Apprentice

Jase

Posted
  • Author
Posted

So here's your who to cheer for week 16:

 

If ATL and NO both lose this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If NO loses and ATL wins this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If ATL loses and NO wins this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

If both ATL and NO win this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Goondal Newbie

Goondal

Posted
Posted

Really could use Pittsburgh beating Atlanta this week to give us some insurance.  If those jerks lose to the Falcons, after also losing to New Orleans and Tampa, all after destroying us, then I do not know what I will do.

 

Damn that first Atlanta game.  Ron screwed us there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Shufdog Community Regular

Shufdog

Posted
Posted

There are 25 scenarios where the panthers win the division.

Of those,

14 scenarios where we're in if we win out,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to TB,

5 scenarios where we're in if we lose to CLE,

and only 1 scenario where we're in if we lose to ATL.

Also, there are 2 scenarios where we win out and don't make it.

 

 

The one scenario where it's okay to lose to atlanta:

Falcons

L versus PIT

L versus NO

Saints

L versus CHI

W versus ATL

L versus TB

 

Hmmm asking for a lot, there.

 

 

So here's your who to cheer for week 16:

 

If ATL and NO both lose this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If NO loses and ATL wins this week, pull for NO to beat ATL

If ATL loses and NO wins this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

If both ATL and NO win this week, pull for ATL to beat NO

 

 

blstr.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jase Apprentice

Jase

Posted
  • Author
Posted

How do the Falcons have a better chance at 7-9 then 8-8?  Bayou maths indeed.

 

They don't have a better chance, that's just the percentage of total scenarios that get them in.  If the falcons go 8-8, they have a 100% chance of getting in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • micnificent28
      Draft Taylen Green

      By micnificent28 · Posted

      My tailoring green idea was not for him to be the starter but to add some value beyond just a developmental quarterback I think size speed is something Bryce doesn't have he has those and would immediately feel the fourth and one package and possibly red zone and some power packages for us
    • micnificent28
      Draft Taylen Green

      By micnificent28 · Posted

      Do you have against Willis I believe you're around when we have the draft with corral and Willis were on the board and me personally I was banging the table for Willis as early as round one but a lot of people thought corral was better but it's amazing with a little coaching and time can do with me I always go with potential and upside versus oh the guy just plays football you know sometimes that's not enough
    • micnificent28
      Would kenyon sadiq fill 2 needs?

      By micnificent28 · Posted

      I know or needs and this probably isn't with a lot of people want but if he's available at 19 I don't think you can discount that he would be the best player on the board I think with 43 speed he's as fast as leggette. 63240 something he would stretch the field  Strike fear over the middle of opposing linebackers and also probably cure our long time history of no serviceable tight end since Greg Olsen I think a lot of needs like tackle maybe linebacker could be filled and free agency to the point like they did last year where we fix a lot of this and draft the best player we can on the board.  After his combine and the numbers in the 43-in vertical I'm not sure that he will be available but if he is I bet that he's highly considered what say you
×
×
  • Create New...