How accurate is pre season game 3 in determing the season?! Very

[panthers55]

So let's watch the game and then predict the results of the season based on that and see how close we were at the end of  the season.  If we do that for the next 10 years we might be able to draw accurate predictions. 2 seasons under Shula or even 4 under Rivera is not enough data to say much.

[Cyberjag]

4 seasons for any coach is usually enough to get fired if only one of them is winning.  Rivera's fortunate that we squeaked into the playoffs last year.  And if we start slow again, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see another coach on the sideline next year.

As far as Shula, I know he doesn't have great talent to work with everywhere like Chud did (*eyeroll*), but we've had 35 games with who knows how many playcalling opportunities to do some decent evaluation of his performance.  And most people find him wanting.

[the butch]

I'm all for the third preseason game being a solid indicator of where our team is . . . but to stretch that out to say that's how we will perform for the entirety of the season is a bit presumptuous.  Players take regular season more seriously and the team gets better as a whole as the season progresses.  

 

Using a ONE-GAME sample size from the PRESEASON as a barometer for a 16-GAME REGULAR SEASON is ludicrous.  

[pantherclaw]

Two preseason games over two years. 

That's not a sample size. 

[caatfan]

On preseason games vs. regular season-

"In the last 10 years, 18 teams have been unbeaten and untied in preseason play. Those teams went on to post a combined regular-season record of only 130-158." http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/sports/football/are-nfl-preseason-games-meaningless-spoiler-yes.html?_r=0

".... we decided to compare the winning percentage of the pre-season of the team to the performance of that team in the regular season for every team over the last 10 season, which gave us a sample size of 320 team seasons. 

When comparing the records, we found that there was no correlation between the performance of the pre-season to the regular season."  http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/is-pre-season-in-the-nfl-an-indicator-of-regular-season-performance.aspx 

[0115]

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[panthers55]

4 seasons for any coach is usually enough to get fired if only one of them is winning.  Rivera's fortunate that we squeaked into the playoffs last year.  And if we start slow again, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see another coach on the sideline next year.

As far as Shula, I know he doesn't have great talent to work with everywhere like Chud did (*eyeroll*), but we've had 35 games with who knows how many playcalling opportunities to do some decent evaluation of his performance.  And most people find him wanting.

You have to look at the overall state of the franchise when Rivera got here to evaluate his success or failure.  He inherited a 2-14 that was historically bad  The cupboard was bare and we had a new quarterback that most folks thought would need at least 2 years to even be a starter and we were saddled with large contracts.  Our coaching staff was new and we had no offseason given the strike. So going from 2-14 to 6-10 was considered a win.  We went 7-9 the second year which actually was a disappointment although an improvement in record.  Hurney and Chud exit, Gettlemen comes in and Shula gets promoted.  We go 12-4 and Rivera is named coach of the year.  Then last year after Smitty leaves we supposedly have the worst offense in the league, Caam has offseason surgery and misses the off-season so he gets no work with his brand new receivers and gets injured in the preseason.  So we start off 2-0 and then win 1 of the next 9 so we are 3-8.  Despite the injuries and car wreck, Cam plays well at the end of the season, we  start 7 rookies in a playoff game, beat Arizona and end up losing to Seattle who finishes 1 yard from winning the Superbowl.

I cant say that is the formula for firing a guy at all.  Truth is that Gettlemen knew we were in trouble last year and likely was thrilled we won the division and won a home playoff game for the first time since 2003.  Rivera and staff were hired as much for their ability to teach and develop players as they were for just wins and losses.  They have done that very well.  I expect us to have a wining season this year and win the division again.  I also expect that Rivera will be here a while honestly.  

[nctarheel0619]

[sharkkiller]

So let's watch the game and then predict the results of the season based on that and see how close we were at the end of  the season.  If we do that for the next 10 years we might be able to draw accurate predictions. 2 seasons under Shula or even 4 under Rivera is not enough data to say much.

My thoughts exactly. While it is fine to speculate, or make assumptions based on two games, it is just way to small a data set to use as a basis for forecasting the season. You need a much larger number of games to accurately draw a correlation between game 3 of the preseason and the outcome of the regular season.

 

It would be better to go back and look at the scores of each preseason game for the past 20 years, and see if there is a correlation at that point. But then you are bringing way to many variables into the equation (i.e. completely different rosters, coaches, opponent rosters, etc.) You cant really say that the team in 2015 is going to hold true to what happened with the team in 2001, for example. 

 

Now if you went back and looked at every team, and how they performed in game 3 of the preseason vs the regular season, you would be able to equalize the variables, and see if there is some historical basis for this assumption across the league. 

 

KB fan, We will wait for your results. Since you are the resident statistician.

 

Hehe.

[Snake]

We've reached the time of year when it's a race to see who can get the most cool points by being the first to poo on a thread. Look out for the classic "not this poo again" and "this needed its own thread?" Make sure to say hello when you see it because the poster is sure to be sitting there waiting for their high 5.

Tl;dr

[Snake]

4 seasons for any coach is usually enough to get fired if only one of them is winning.  Rivera's fortunate that we squeaked into the playoffs last year.  And if we start slow again, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see another coach on the sideline next year.

As far as Shula, I know he doesn't have great talent to work with everywhere like Chud did (*eyeroll*), but we've had 35 games with who knows how many playcalling opportunities to do some decent evaluation of his performance.  And most people find him wanting.

I'm willing to be you $1000 that your wrong about that.  JR keeps coaches till they implode. 

[PanthersUnited]

On preseason games vs. regular season-

"In the last 10 years, 18 teams have been unbeaten and untied in preseason play. Those teams went on to post a combined regular-season record of only 130-158." http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/sports/football/are-nfl-preseason-games-meaningless-spoiler-yes.html?_r=0

".... we decided to compare the winning percentage of the pre-season of the team to the performance of that team in the regular season for every team over the last 10 season, which gave us a sample size of 320 team seasons. 

When comparing the records, we found that there was no correlation between the performance of the pre-season to the regular season."  http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/is-pre-season-in-the-nfl-an-indicator-of-regular-season-performance.aspx 

I don't care about pre season w/l record, I'm referring to the 3rd pre season game in general and how it can give you some insight into how the season could go. If we look lethargic and bad tonight with our first string in there then it could be a long season

[panthers55]

I don't care about pre season w/l record, I'm referring to the 3rd pre season game in general and how it can give you some insight into how the season could go. If we look lethargic and bad tonight with our first string in there then it could be a long season

And it might mean nothing.  That is the point. 

[pantherclaw]

I don't care about pre season w/l record, I'm referring to the 3rd pre season game in general and how it can give you some insight into how the season could go. If we look lethargic and bad tonight with our first string in there then it could be a long season

in the end, it's still just a preseason game. 

It has nothing to do with how the team may or may not perform, two weeks from now when we get starters that are resting, back on the field. It certainly means nothing come mid season. How it compare to December? 

It DOESN'T.