Gauging Josh Norman's contract value

[TheNewStandard]

12 minutes ago, juliosantos said:

1 more day to use the tag

Let him go. Ain't no way on God's green Earth that Josh Norman should garner 12-million.

its just too bad that all we will get from him is cap space to go after upgrades for our DL and Safeties.

sorry Josh, you're just not worth that kind of money and neither is any of the top-5 CBs...especially considering we use basically a zone press defense and that puts more of a premium on our Safeties and edge rushers.

[gamecocks722]

My biggest issue with Norman is how long its taken him to get here. Sure, he had a fantastic year in 2015 and a solid 2014 but other then that he was just another name on the roster. You look at some of those other names: Revis, Shermen, Hayden...those dudes have consistently done it year in and year out. Don't get me wrong, we need Norman. I just don't see a $14MM+/yr deal simply because of the inconsistency and age.

[Bartin]

18 hours ago, Panthers8969 said:

except of course, say he would take a hometown discount lol

Most players are willing to take a hometown discount, it's just that the definition of discount varies greatly between fans and players. Players think a discount means $500k or less per year less than what someone else is offering. Fans think a discount means $2M+.

[Nick_81]

Jonathan Jones ‏@jjones9  3m3 minutes ago

Tag numbers are official now. Whenever the Panthers slap the franchise tag on Josh Norman, it'll be $13,952,000

[Bronn]

 

I said this in November... knock 5 years down to 4 and we are close to being on the same page...

[unicar15]

Peterson does major special teams work. Revis will always be seen as another level. I think he's in that Joe Haden 13-14 mil per year territory most likely. 

[unicar15]

2 hours ago, gamecocks722 said:

My biggest issue with Norman is how long its taken him to get here. Sure, he had a fantastic year in 2015 and a solid 2014 but other then that he was just another name on the roster. You look at some of those other names: Revis, Shermen, Hayden...those dudes have consistently done it year in and year out. Don't get me wrong, we need Norman. I just don't see a $14MM+/yr deal simply because of the inconsistency and age.

Then wave goodbye because that's what it will take looking at the rest of the league. Someone will take a chance and pay him if we don't. He's a great cover guy in our scheme. He's an above average tackler. He's still getting better imo. We just went to the SB with him and have won the division. His personality doesn't strike me as someone who wants to be the best because of the money. Meaning..I think he's still going to work at being the best despite the contract which is what you pay a guy for...similar to Newton. 

[panther4life]

I dug a little deeper into the contracts details. It seems the first 3 year guaranteed payout is most important to the players. 

 

 

Aqib Talib(28)- signed in 2014

On paper it's a 6 year/57 million dollar deal with 25 Million Guaranteed. 

 

Starting in third year (2016) the team has positioned themselves an escape clause if necessary. They cut can him and only incur 3 million in dead money. This dead money number goes down 1 million every year following until reaching 0 in 2019.

 

The first 2 years salary were  fully guaranteed. The third year is guaranteed if the team does not cut him by 3/9/16.

Here's the yeary cap hits in millions. 

Year 1 Cap hit 7.9 

Year 2 Cap hit 6.9

Year 3 Cap hit 9.9

Year 4 Cap hit 12

 

This essentially a first 2 years fully guaranteed,with the third year is a team option to cut him by the 9th and save 6 million in cap space and the 4th would likely time to part ways or restructure.

Real deal = 3 years 27 Million. If you want more detail read this article from the Broncos beat writer http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2014/03/13/details-aqib-talibs-contract/26669/

Darelle Revis's contract with the Jets has a similar layout (basically a 3  year deal with first 2 years fully guaranteed and 6 million of the 3rd year fully guaranteed). 

Year 1 Cap hit 16 Million

Year 2 Cap hit 17 Million

Year 3 Cap hit 15.3 Million

 

 

This means he either gets a 2 year 39/million deal(if team chooses to cut him after year 2)or more likely 3 year 48 Million dollar deal.  16 Million yearly average over first 3

 

Then trend continues when looking a Peterson and Shermans deal's as well.

 

Peterson had 47.3 million in guarantees. With all of it scheduled to be paid out by the 3rd year. If cut before the 4th year dead money is at 6 million vs a 4th year cap hit of 6.1 Million. 15.7 yearly average over first 3 years

 

 

Sherman's deal essentially works out to be a 4 year deal worth 47.2 Million, much tougher for team to cut him after first 3 years due to larger dead money hit. 11.75 Million per year payout over 4 years

These deal's all emphasize the first 3 year payout in guaranteed money. 

Revis set the bar at 16 million per year in the first 3. Peterson is right behind at 15.7 million per year. Sherman's is only 11.75 but  has an extra year of security.

So after reviewing this I think my initial guarantees's for Norman would likely be too low to sway him. I think he will likely require a contract that pays out 40-45 million fully guaranteed and being paid out within the first 3 years. 

In this case a potential deal would have to be structured like this.

5 Years 67 Million with 42.5 guaranteed. Signing bonus of 16.5 million up front and to be spread over 4 years. 

Year 1 salary: 6 Million ( guaranteed) +4.125 signing bonus = 10.125 Cap hit

Year 2 salary: 9 Million( guaranteed) +4.125 signing bonus = 13.125 Cap hit

Year 3 Salary 10 Million (4 guaranteed) +4.125 signing bonus =15.125 Cap hit

Year 4 Salary 10 Million + 4.125 signing bonus                        =14.425 Cap hit

Year 5 Salary 13.2 Million                                                         =13.2 Cap hit

A real contract would have roster bonuses and other incentives built in. However it would look similar in principal to this structure. Essentially making the 5th year dummy or voidable year but increasing the amount on paper. 

Most importantly to Norman and his agent his 3 year payout  42.5 million with a yearly average of 14.1 Million per year.  Not quite the 16 million per year Revis and Peterson got but more than 11.75 average Sherman got. 

I really like having Norman on the team but I just can't see paying him anything more than that and I doubt Gettleman would either. Sure will be interesting to see the final number's if and when a deal does get worked out.