Some Interesting Oher & Oline Stats

[KB_fan]

Thanks to Bill Voth's latest What They're Saying link roundup

A closer look at Michael Oher's contract extension relative to his performance via the Washington Post and also PFF:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/06/17/michael-ohers-contract-extension-with-panthers-is-not-as-bad-as-it-looks/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-daily-focus-panthers-deal-with-michael-oher-ensures-consistency/?utm_content=buffer16bed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl

Both articles include some interesting statistics & graphs re: Oher's performance over the years, and also the Panthers Oline as a whole last season.  But let me first say, statistics don't tell the whole story.  I'm really pleased with the Oher extension.  He passed the eyeball test and we had the #1 scoring offense in the league.  You don't get there without a solid Oline.

So don't focus too much on the PFF grades... more interesting to me were the stats on total pressures allowed by our Oline and also how much Oher has shifted between LT & RT.....

I'll post the excerpts first, then a few more comments below. 

First from the WaPo article:

Quote

 

[Oher's] minus-28.8 rating in 2015 placed him 47th among 61 tackles playing at least half their team’s snaps.

 

But this obscures the value Oher provided the Carolina Panthers, since a large majority of that negative grade comes from his inability to block on rushing plays. When it came to providing pass protection, he was the 12th highest-rated left tackle in the NFL (plus-6.5 rating), allowing just four sacks, three hits and 24 hurries in 558 passing snaps.

 

 

 

Quote

 

As a group, Carolina’s offensive line allowed the fourth fewest total pressures on their quarterback in 2015 (145) after allowing the ninth most (180) just a year before, so while Oher might not have been the sole reason for the improvement, he clearly was a part of the resurgence.

 

 

 

Now for some PFF article exceprts:
 

Quote

 

Last season, Oher was the lowest-graded run-blocking offensive tackle in all of football, with his -33.4 grade in that regard twice as bad as that of the next worst tackle, Jason Fox (-17.2). However, as a pass-blocker, he was actually the 15th-best in the league, allowing just 31 total pressures from 558 pass-blocking snaps. That gave him a pass-blocking efficiency rating (our stat that tracks pressure allowed on a per-snap basis, with weighting toward sacks and hits) of 95.7, a mark topped by just 16 offensive tackles in the NFL. When you consider that Cam Newton’s style of play dictates that he takes more hits than a lot of other starting quarterbacks when he runs, having a left tackle who can keep him clean on dropbacks is key.

What’s interesting is that Oher has never had a chance to settle at either tackle spot in the NFL. PFF’s lead analyst Ben Stockwell tweeted yesterday about how 2016 will be just the second time in Oher’s career that he has played the same position two years in a row, rotating between both tackle spots the rest of the time. As Brandon Croce replied to him, 2016 will also be the first time since 2013 that Carolina start the same player at left tackle in back to back years. Even if Oher’s struggles continue, this extension can help by bringing consistency for both team and player at the left tackle position.

 

 

 

 

Ok, that's it for the article excerpts.  A few comments:

1) PFF is really maddening with the randomness & inconsistency of their grades:

They say Oher ranked 47th among 61 tackles according to the WaPo article, but yet in their "player grades" (the only grades I have access to since I don't subscribe to premium stats) Oher ranked 30th:

Re: Pass protection:  The WaPo article (based, I believe on PFF stats?) has Oher ranked 12th in Pass protection.   The PFF article has him ranked 17th in pass blocking efficiency.   But then in the player grades, Oher has the 10th highest pass blocking grade among all tackles:

 

So.....  I find it very hard to trust any of these stats from PFF.   Was Oher ranked 30th or 47th among tackles last year?    Was he 10th, 12th or 17th in terms of pass protection?    For a someone who enjoys statistics, the opaqueness of PFF's grading - especially for the less "stat-dependent" positions like Oline - is very maddening.   I find it harder and harder to take any of their stats and grades seriously.

As far as I'm concerned, in terms of the RESULTS, it's much easier to quantify Oher & the Oline's performance:

• 4th fewest pressures allowed
• 17 wins
• #1 scoring offense
• #2 running offense (yards / game)
• 30 consecutive games with 100+ yards rushing.... (Of course Oher was only playing for 19 of those games...)

 

2) The Chance for Oher and the Panthers to have consistency / continuity.   

I didn't post these excerpts merely to whine about PFF stats....

What I actually found more interesting were the tweets I excerpted from the PFF article about how much Michael Oher has bounced between RT and LT in his career, and, of course, how nice it is to have some stability once again at LT after two years of turnover.   I didn't realize Oher and switched sides so often in his career.  It must be nice for him to have some stability with the Panthers.  And, one has to think ths continuity and stability will make the Oline, Cam and our whole offense even BETTER.   Scary thought for opposing defenses!

 

[imminent rogaine]

How did Wa post get a picture of Oher and Clowney dancing?

Those stats don't mean much to me. As KB_fan said, he passes the eye test.  We saw what horrendous tackle play looked like with Bell. Oher clearly is a competent LT and we paid him like it.

[chknwing]

its missing the part where the Panthers went to the Super Bowl.  Stats don't mean poo. Only Results.

[dpm0409]

I've never read much into/valued PFF stats very much.  Your post has reaffirmed those feelings.  Makes no sense for the grades to be so ambiguous.  I'm on board with the Oher extension b/c sustainability and continuity are vastly underrated when it comes to the O-line.  I also didn't realize he had flip flopped back and forth between LT and RT so much.  Staying @ LT for consecutive seasons bodes well for Oher's 2016 season.

[PandaPancake]

I came in here to disprove the interesting part of the thread title. I'll see myself out.

[KB_fan]

I was quite intrigued by the graph comparing his pass-blocking and run-blocking performance.   The nearly mirror-opposite trend lines for 2015 are fascinating.

It makes me wonder to what extent coaching and the Panthers scheme shaped Oher's performance.  (Well Duh, of course they would...).  But specifically, I wonder if Matsko and our coaches somehow gave Oher the freedom to specialize primarily on pass-blocking, allowing him to narrow his focus on improving his technique in that area, recognizing that others on the line and on the offense could offer support for run-blocking.  If the stats are at all accurate, Oher's pass blocking improved HUGELY, while his run-blocking fell off a cliff.  It suggests the coaches basically just said:  "Your #1 job is pass protection.  Focus on that.  Do that well, and we will be in great shape."   And so it transpired.

This season, it does sound like Oher is working to improve his run blocking....

Anyway, it's just got me thinking about the quality of our coaching, and how well they know their players (in that sense the Matsko - Oher reunion may have been very very important). It's increasing clear that player development is a huge strength of our coaches, that they patiently work with them to improve one key area at a time rather than throwing the whole book at them at once.  I'm sure all coaches strive for this, but the Panthers' coaches seem to have mastered this art.  We've seen it time and time again in recent years.

[GolfRasta]

Still can't believe we took Amini over Cordy Glenn...

[shaqattaq]

6 hours ago, KB_fan said:

So.....  I find it very hard to trust any of these stats from PFF.

'nuff said!

[shaqattaq]

I just watched the Seattle clip in the WA Post, and the thing that stood out to me is that Norwell blocked 3 people and was 10 yards down field when Stew ran through the wide open hole! And he got $514 thousand last season. God bless Getty...now pay that fat, hairy bastard!

Sorry, I realize that my exclamation has nothing to do with the thread topic.

[pantherclaw]

5 hours ago, KB_fan said:

I was quite intrigued by the graph comparing his pass-blocking and run-blocking performance.   The nearly mirror-opposite trend lines for 2015 are fascinating.

It makes me wonder to what extent coaching and the Panthers scheme shaped Oher's performance.  (Well Duh, of course they would...).  But specifically, I wonder if Matsko and our coaches somehow gave Oher the freedom to specialize primarily on pass-blocking, allowing him to narrow his focus on improving his technique in that area, recognizing that others on the line and on the offense could offer support for run-blocking.  If the stats are at all accurate, Oher's pass blocking improved HUGELY, while his run-blocking fell off a cliff.  It suggests the coaches basically just said:  "Your #1 job is pass protection.  Focus on that.  Do that well, and we will be in great shape."   And so it transpired.

This season, it does sound like Oher is working to improve his run blocking....

Anyway, it's just got me thinking about the quality of our coaching, and how well they know their players (in that sense the Matsko - Oher reunion may have been very very important). It's increasing clear that player development is a huge strength of our coaches, that they patiently work with them to improve one key area at a time rather than throwing the whole book at them at once.  I'm sure all coaches strive for this, but the Panthers' coaches seem to have mastered this art.  We've seen it time and time again in recent years.

Coaches don't coach like that. 

Pass blocking is a premium at LT. We got that. 

He should improve with this being the second season with the same 5 guys on the line.

[Norway]

Very pleased with his performance last year. With regard to overall o-line performance, from what I remember and could see with my inexperienced football eye, we used a lot of maximum protection last year, which obviously skews the o-line pass pro performance a bit in our favor, compared to other teams that use less players in pass pro