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Still don't want a RB in round 1 for a number of reasons

Ricky Spanish

By Ricky Spanish,
in Carolina Panthers

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Ricky Spanish Grand Master

Ricky Spanish

Posted
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It's looking more and more likely that RB will be the position we take in round 1. I for one, won't be thrilled for a number of reasons, but I'll still cheer for the guy and hope for the best. For those who are excited about the prospect of having our first pick be a RB, temper that excitement for a number of reasons:

  1. RBs have the shortest careers in the NFL. Spending a first round pick on a RB is not a long term solution.
  2. On average, they are most productive at age 26, decline for two years, and then drop off a cliff soon after. Imagine if we got the best years out of Cam or TD up to age 26 and it was all downhill from there. I'd be pretty pissed if we wasted a first round pick on that length of production.
  3. RBs are the most often injured position in the NFL. No, Seriously. You are essentially accepting that your first round pick will miss substantial amounts of time  throughout their career. You're basically drafting a guy with an injury history, even if he doesn't have one. We all love Stewart, but the biggest knock against him is that he can't stay on the field.
  4. The teams with the best records in the league tend to spend the least amount of money on the RB position. The outlier in this situation would be the Panthers last year, but then again, we've never had back to back winning seasons and we spend the second most on the position in the league.
  5. Similar production at the position can be had at a fraction of the cost, and a first round RB will be expensive down the line when his career is most likely on the downswing because if you remember, they peak at age 26, roughly around when our 1st round RB's first contract will be up. You can do more with solid production at the RB position with your money allocated elsewhere, than you can with elite production and money invested at RB. 

So all in all, I'm not thrilled if wel spend a high first round pick on a RB. As awesome as it would be to have Fournette on our team, I don't think it would help us out long term. Fournette's running style all but confirms to me that he will hit the injury report multiple times throughout his career. Guys who look for contact at that position tend to not last long, or aren't always available. Gun to my head, I'd rather have McCafferey based on injury risk alone, not pure talent. While Fournette is the more impressive sports car, it's hard to enjoy it when it's constantly in the shop. CMC doesn't have the injury history/risk that Fournette does, and he doesn't take the hits that Fournette does, so I believe he'll be on the field more often than Fournette, and therefor, will prove to be more valuable. 

This is of course, just my glass half empty perspective on drafting a RB in the first round. I was alright with it at the beginning of the offseason, but the closer we have gotten to the draft the less I like the idea. I'd rather spend our pick on a DE, Safety, or TE, and then take a RB in the second. Hell, I'd be alright if we traded back into the late first to take one, just not 8 overall, and especially not trading up before 8 to take one. It would be a waste of multiple picks.

Regardless of who we pick, I will not be actively rooting against the guy and will hope that my pessimistic outlook on the position is proven wrong 100 times over because I don't want to be right about all of this if we take a RB.

Just my two cents.

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therealmjl Grand Master

therealmjl

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Just now, nctarheel0619 said:

Doubtful, going to be at the bar with one of my best buds grabbing beers.  Plus, my classes are over for the semester.  

just saying you ain't gonna be happy with McCaffrey. Starting to feel like it's likely he ends up being the pick.

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panther4life Community Regular

panther4life

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I understand where you're coming from.But maybe this will make you feel better if you look at it this way.  

 

Deangelo was drafted in 06 and is still productive in the league. Stewart 2 years after him and still a huddle favorite. So those 2 kind of go against points 1 and 2 that you made. 

3. Injury concern is valid and a higher risk but as we saw with Benjamin and Butler early, injuries can happen at any position.

4. The common denominator in consistent playoff teams is there head coach and QB combo. Steelers and Seahawks have always boasted a good run game a defense in their most consistent years and those pop in to mind immediately. Sure there's more.

5. I don't think it's fair to worry about Fournettes 2nd contract when we have him for 4 years under a rookie deal and a 5th year option that will be reasonable as well. 

 

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