Official Rival Thread #1 - Atlanta Falcons

[Jeremy Igo]

Now that the Panthers news has fallen to a zero, I thought maybe it is time to delve into the other teams of the NFC South and strike up a conversation on each. I haven't really paid much attention to other teams this offseason, so by all means if something here is not correct or you feel something needs added, chime in. 

Up first, the Atlanta Falcons

 

Key Free Agent Pickups

Dontari Poe - Instantly improves Atlanta's run defense. Really good pickup. 

Jack Crawford - Situational pass rushing DE. Meh. 

 

Key Draft Picks

Rd 1 - Takkarist McKinley DE UCLA

Falcons traded up to grab McKinley, so they obviously think he can make an immediate impact. However, rookie DE's historically don't do much in the first round aside from the guys drafted in the top 10. McKinley was drafted at 26. Throw in the fact he just had shoulder surgery this offseason and one can safely assume not much production this year. Best case is a solid defensive end to play across from Beasley in the years to come. 

Rd 3 - Duke Riley LB LSU

I like this pick. Riley is a solid prospect. I don't suspect he will contribute much this season outside of special teams, but could develop into a solid player eventually. 

 

Coaching Changes

The Falcons have had a whole lot of turnover in the coaching staff, most notably both coordinators. 

Offensive Coordinator - Gone

Defensive Coordinator - Gone

QB Coach - Gone

RB Coach - Gone

DL Coach - Gone

Raheem Morris is now the assistant head coach. Couldn't cut it as an actual head coach in the NFL, but probably good to have as an assistant. 

 

Superbowl Hangover?

The only teams that seem to avoid Superbowl Hangovers are the ones with really established and reliable defenses. The Panthers experienced this first hand when their defense went into the crapper early last season. I am not sure Atlanta has the ability to recover from a hangover so big from blowing a 28-3 lead. 

 

Key Questions

Have the Falcons improved this offseason taking into account free agency, draft, and coaching changes? 

Can the Falcons' offense reproduce the 2016 season with a full offseason of NFL defenses studying them? 

Does Matt Ryan still wear braided belts?

[Hotsauce]

[Jangler]

The Fallcons, I almost feel sorry for what they are going to go through this year. Not only did they lose, they blew a 25 point lead in 18 minutes! ;;;and your QB is old, at least Drew Brees has a ring...

 

 

[SeoulPanther]

Agree that Dontari Poe will improve their run D. That's a great FA acquisition.  I expect them to cope better with the SB hangover than us as long as they don't have injuries. They will be good but talk of being dominant is clearly reaching. They haven't even established dominance in our division, without back-to-back NFC Sth titles in recent times.They are helped by not playing NE in game one and they retained a lot of their better players. But NFC South is tough, I think they will be 8-8, bc of schedule, worse if they have a run of luck like us last year with injuries.

[Cyberjag]

They're going to be tough, no doubt.  But it's worth remembering that like the Panthers, they got really hot down the stretch and into the playoffs last year.  They ended the regular season on a four game streak where they averaged 38.5 points per game, but more importantly over those four games they only allowed about 16 ppg.  When their defense was it's normal 27th ranked unit, they went 7-5.

I expect their offense to be good once more.  But despite all the happy talk down there, their defense isn't that great, it gave up 25ppg and was 27th in the league in allowing points.  Basically, same old Atlanta, but one that managed to score a little extra in 2016.

The Poe signing looks good on paper, but so did the Soliai signing last year.  He's coming off back surgery and while he's making weight, there's no guarantee he's going to be the stud in the middle he was before his problems started.

Another thing to think about is luck--Atlanta got some good bounces last year and for a good chunk of the season they were pretty healthy.  They also had a new coach and seemed to hit on all their draft choices.  We all know how that feels--how long ago was it that Panther fans were calling 2014 the best draft in franchise history?

I think that the Falcons are likely to stumble a little out of the gate and hover around .500 most of the season.  They might turn it on late again and get back to the playoffs at 10-6, but to me it's more likely that having that big target on their chest puts them down around 8-8 and on the outside.  And that won't be a hangover, it will just be NFL reality.  The NFCS is too tough and they get a first place schedule.

So bring them on.  We're healthy and better than they are.

[RoaringRiot]

I'm torn between thinking with all their coaching changes and the SB hangover that there's no way they won't regress, to thinking that they're returning everyone to a team that had a ridiculous offense and a D that got much better towards the end of the season. I don't think they'll fall like us to 6-10, but maybe around 9-7. 

[uncfan888]

Super bowl hangover is real.. I'll be shocked if they win ten games

[Ball4life]

18 minutes ago, Cyberjag said:

They're going to be tough, no doubt.  But it's worth remembering that like the Panthers, they got really hot down the stretch and into the playoffs last year.  They ended the regular season on a four game streak where they averaged 38.5 points per game, but more importantly over those four games they only allowed about 16 ppg.  When their defense was it's normal 27th ranked unit, they went 7-5.

I expect their offense to be good once more.  But despite all the happy talk down there, their defense isn't that great, it gave up 25ppg and was 27th in the league in allowing points.  Basically, same old Atlanta, but one that managed to score a little extra in 2016.

The Poe signing looks good on paper, but so did the Soliai signing last year.  He's coming off back surgery and while he's making weight, there's no guarantee he's going to be the stud in the middle he was before his problems started.

Another thing to think about is luck--Atlanta got some good bounces last year and for a good chunk of the season they were pretty healthy.  They also had a new coach and seemed to hit on all their draft choices.  We all know how that feels--how long ago was it that Panther fans were calling 2014 the best draft in franchise history?

I think that the Falcons are likely to stumble a little out of the gate and hover around .500 most of the season.  They might turn it on late again and get back to the playoffs at 10-6, but to me it's more likely that having that big target on their chest puts them down around 8-8 and on the outside.  And that won't be a hangover, it will just be NFL reality.  The NFCS is too tough and they get a first place schedule.

So bring them on.  We're healthy and better than they are.

Defense will be good. Falcons had big leads all year and the defense/2nd string defense gave up a lot of points in garbage time...remember Derek Anderson throwing for 170+ yards and 2 TD's in the 4th quarter in game 1? Not saying they were elite but more like middle of the pack.  Combine that with the fact that the Falcons defense was full of 1st and 2nd year players...you also saw them improve after 7-5 because Quinn took over. Big reason why the DC was fired. Poe is also a much better pickup than Soliai ever was.

[UpstatePanther]

If there hadn't been so much turnover at the highest levels of their coaching staff, I might be more worried. But that, plus the hangover, plus regression to the mean in the form of injuries/bad bounces, is gonna catch up to the Falcons this year. Not that we should sleep on them. They're still going to be capable of beating us. But I'd be surprised if they were in contention for 1st in the division by week 17.

[Ball4life]

2 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Now that the Panthers news has fallen to a zero, I thought maybe it is time to delve into the other teams of the NFC South and strike up a conversation on each. I haven't really paid much attention to other teams this offseason, so by all means if something here is not correct or you feel something needs added, chime in. 

Up first, the Atlanta Falcons

 

Key Free Agent Pickups

Dontari Poe - Instantly improves Atlanta's run defense. Really good pickup. 

Jack Crawford - Situational pass rushing DE. Meh. 

 

Key Draft Picks

Rd 1 - Takkarist McKinley DE UCLA

Falcons traded up to grab McKinley, so they obviously think he can make an immediate impact. However, rookie DE's historically don't do much in the first round aside from the guys drafted in the top 10. McKinley was drafted at 26. Throw in the fact he just had shoulder surgery this offseason and one can safely assume not much production this year. Best case is a solid defensive end to play across from Beasley in the years to come. 

Rd 3 - Duke Riley LB LSU

I like this pick. Riley is a solid prospect. I don't suspect he will contribute much this season outside of special teams, but could develop into a solid player eventually. 

 

Coaching Changes

The Falcons have had a whole lot of turnover in the coaching staff, most notably both coordinators. 

Offensive Coordinator - Gone

Defensive Coordinator - Gone

QB Coach - Gone

RB Coach - Gone

DL Coach - Gone

Raheem Morris is now the assistant head coach. Couldn't cut it as an actual head coach in the NFL, but probably good to have as an assistant. 

 

Superbowl Hangover?

The only teams that seem to avoid Superbowl Hangovers are the ones with really established and reliable defenses. The Panthers experienced this first hand when their defense went into the crapper early last season. I am not sure Atlanta has the ability to recover from a hangover so big from blowing a 28-3 lead. 

 

Key Questions

Have the Falcons improved this offseason taking into account free agency, draft, and coaching changes? 

Can the Falcons' offense reproduce the 2016 season with a full offseason of NFL defenses studying them? 

Does Matt Ryan still wear braided belts?

Riley will most likely start at WLB. He's a lot like Deion Jones and a lot of people thought Deion would just be a special teams guy his first year...he ended up finishing 2nd in DROY. Takk starts too barring injury...you're right rookie pash rushers rarely make impacts but he is walking into a MUCH better situation that Beasley was. 

[OneBadCat]

I think the biggest reason Superbowl hangovers exist is because the team loses the drive to compete that hard for the most part. Then luck and competition factor in. It takes a ton of work to get there. And to blow a 28-3 lead would no doubt take the wind out if your sails. It'll probably take them a season to bounce back from it. Unfortunately for them Matt Ryan sucks and isn't as good as Cam.

[Cyberjag]

6 minutes ago, Ball4life said:

Defense will be good. Falcons had big leads all year and the defense/2nd string defense gave up a lot of points in garbage time...remember Derek Anderson throwing for 170+ yards and 2 TD's in the 4th quarter in game 1? Not saying they were elite but more like middle of the pack.  Combine that with the fact that the Falcons defense was full of 1st and 2nd year players...you also saw them improve after 7-5 because Quinn took over. Big reason why the DC was fired. Poe is also a much better pickup than Soliai ever was.

Falcons were 7-5 at one point.  If Quinn has to take over the defense for it to perform, isn't that an issue?

Poe looks like a good signing.  My point is that stuff which looks good on paper doesn't always translate to the field.

And yes, the defense was full of 1st and 2nd year players.  How many NFL QBs and OTs now have plenty of film on them to review for items to exploit?  Bene Benwikere once looked like a steal.  Kony Ealy looked like the next great DE.  Tre Boston had lots of promise.  

Seriously, you have a team that was 27th in the league in scoring defense, and we're to believe that it was all garbage time when they weren't much above .500 going into December.  Come on, man...

[Ball4life]

1 minute ago, Cyberjag said:

Falcons were 7-5 at one point.  If Quinn has to take over the defense for it to perform, isn't that an issue?

Poe looks like a good signing.  My point is that stuff which looks good on paper doesn't always translate to the field.

And yes, the defense was full of 1st and 2nd year players.  How many NFL QBs and OTs now have plenty of film on them to review for items to exploit?  Bene Benwikere once looked like a steal.  Kony Ealy looked like the next great DE.  Tre Boston had lots of promise.  

Seriously, you have a team that was 27th in the league in scoring defense, and we're to believe that it was all garbage time when they weren't much above .500 going into December.  Come on, man...

Yes that is why they fired the DC. They made some changes after the bye and the defense improved dramatically.                Not seeing the comparison..Boston, Ealy or Bene did not have as good of rookie years as Deion Jones or Keanu Neal or as good of 2nd year as Vic Beasley did.           Even when the Falcons were 7-5 I liked the team better even than in 2010 or 2012 when they went 13-3. They got screwed against the Seahawks, blew a 28-10 (yeah shocker) against the Chargers after Tevin Coleman went out and were just flat out outcoached by the Chiefs. Also were is the notion that the Falcons didn't have injuries?? Just because the starting OL played every game? Because they had plenty of injuries throughout the season.

[Ball4life]

21 minutes ago, OneBadCat said:

I think the biggest reason Superbowl hangovers exist is because for the most part the team loses the drive to compete that hard. It takes a ton of work to get there. And to blow a 28-3 lead would no doubt take the wind out if your sails. It'll probably take them a season to bounce back from it. Unfortunately for them Matt Ryan sucks and isn't as good as Cam.

Since 2006 the only SuperBowl losers to not win 10 games or win their division are the 2007 Chicago Bears and the 2016 Carolina Panthers. Curse isn't as big as people make it out to be.