Could we have been truly OUT of ONLY 3 games last year?! [Also, what stats from 2016 would you like a closer look at?]

[top dawg]

poo, girl, too many things to think of, so I'll just throw darts.

I think that Cam is going to have to master the art of the check-down (those intermediate passes) to keep the chains moving. On defense we will have to be top three in takeaways. 

[KB_fan]

Until I started browsing through my spreadsheets today, I'd totally forgotten that last July I wrote an article and a forum topic on the question of winning close games and our remarkable turn around in that category from week 3 of 2013 to 2015. 

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/2016/07/15/carolina-panthers-close-games/

and also:

The forum entry has a lot of additional data that didn't make the main page article.

 

I'm in the process of updating my tables & graphs to include 2016, and will post them here soon, but it's pretty fair to say that in recent years, since Ron's arrival certainly, the Panthers success is INCREDIBLY closely correlated with their performance in close games.

Stay tuned...

[Hogmolliesmaht]

Missed FG's doomed us more than anything else last year.

[Car123]

5 minutes ago, Hogmolliesmaht said:

Missed FG's doomed us more than anything else last year.

The secondary.

[Hogmolliesmaht]

8 minutes ago, Car123 said:

The secondary.

They were good enough by the end of the season. I would say the O-line injuries hurt worse. It's  not good when you're down to your 3rd center and your starting RG is playing RT with Remmers playing LT.

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, Hogmolliesmaht said:

Missed FG's doomed us more than anything else last year.

 

1 hour ago, Car123 said:

The secondary.

 

53 minutes ago, Hogmolliesmaht said:

I would say the O-line injuries hurt worse. It's  not good when you're down to your 3rd center and your starting RG is playing RT with Remmers playing LT.

 

All of the above, really.  There's usually never just ONE factor.

[Saca312]

@KB_fan I assume you've seen this article already, correct?

http://twoqbs.com/qb-profiles/cam-newton-fantasy-qb-with-upside/

What do you think of our strength of schedule and these charts?

*Pass Blend combines pass efficiency, yards per pass attempt, explosive passes, and pass rush efficiency.

[KB_fan]

So, here's a look at Panthers' history in winning close games (using Sporting Charts data, which defines close games as <10 points.)  It's sorted from best to worst close game win %, regular season data only.  (close game wins / all close games)

Of our 9 best seasons in terms of close game wins, we went to the playoffs in 7 of them, including 2014, when we "squeaked in" at 7-8-1 overall, but had a .667 winning % in close games.

 

I think it's VERY telling that 2 of our worst-ever seasons in terms of close-game win % were our two superbowl hangover years, 2004 & 2016...

Only 2006, 2007 and 2009 did we have a winning % in close games and NOT make the playoffs.

Also, WE HAVE NEVER HAD A WINNING SEASON WHEN WE HAD A LOSING % IN CLOSE GAMES.  NEVER.  

One of the key ingredients to NFL success?  WIN THE CLOSE GAMES.

And looking at it chronologically, since that's easier for some:

 

And this pattern of close game success correlating highly with overall success is not just a feature of the Panthers.  Last summer I looked at data for ALL teams from 2009 - 2015 and the correlation was STRIKING.  You can see a lot of that data in the Huddle Forum post I created last summer.

NFL teams AVERAGE 8 close games (won or lost by 1-9 points) a season.  How a team plays in those games largely determines their overall success.

 

[pantherphan96]

Better playcalling and time management and we win the first Tampa game, the Chiefs game, and the Raiders game, putting us at 9-6 going into the final game of the season against Tampa.

Specifically, passing play on 1st and Goal with DA against the Bucs leads to an interception instead of a TD. Horrendous clock management in the Chiefs game allows them to come all the way back. Not going for it on 4th and 1 agains the Raiders at midfield leads to their game winning drive.

Vikings game was unavoidable due to the OL disappearing, ATL waxed us twice, SEA killed us, Gano's missed FG against Denver hurts but that's unavoidable when you have a streaky kicker.

[Saca312]

Just now, pantherphan96 said:

Vikings game was unavoidable due to the OL disappearing

Michael Oher reportedly suffered his concussion in a practice before the Vikings game, hence his poor performance. Panthers never caught on until later that week after the game.

[KB_fan]

2 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

@KB_fan I assume you've seen this article already, correct?

http://twoqbs.com/qb-profiles/cam-newton-fantasy-qb-with-upside/

What do you think of our strength of schedule and these charts?

Yes, I saw that a few months ago.

Generally I take strength of schedule with a bit of a grain of salt.  Teams change over time.  We were supposed to be a TOUGH opponent for other teams last season and our 15-1 2015 record ramped up our opponents' SoS %.  Yet we turned out to be a paper tiger - or paper panther!

Talk to me about strength of schedule again after the 1st 3 or 4 games of the season.

Sure it "looks" like we have an easier time of it this season for our offense..., which I'm hopeful about, but I'm not counting chickens.

[KB_fan]

11 minutes ago, pantherphan96 said:

Better playcalling and time management and we win the first Tampa game, the Chiefs game, and the Raiders game, putting us at 9-6 going into the final game of the season against Tampa.

Specifically, passing play on 1st and Goal with DA against the Bucs leads to an interception instead of a TD. Horrendous clock management in the Chiefs game allows them to come all the way back. Not going for it on 4th and 1 agains the Raiders at midfield leads to their game winning drive.

Truth to this.

Riverboat Ron seemed absent for much of the season...  I felt his overall game management regressed, plus of course Shula seemed awful at in-game adjustments,

[Saca312]

7 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Yes, I saw that a few months ago.

Generally I take strength of schedule with a bit of a grain of salt.  Teams change over time.  We were supposed to be a TOUGH opponent for other teams last season and our 15-1 2015 record ramped up our opponents' SoS %.  Yet we turned out to be a paper tiger - or paper panther!

Talk to me about strength of schedule again after the 1st 3 or 4 games of the season.

Sure it "looks" like we have an easier time of it this season for our offense..., which I'm hopeful about, but I'm not counting chickens.

Understood. I'm not sure how their past SoS metrics worked, but supposedly it's this system that's a bit more in depth and accurate/analytical than the usual.

I'll probably have to look at how their past SoS's fared, but generally I'll take anything that gives us an advantage.

On the topic of schedules, I tend to think that the 49er game may not be as easy as everyone is making it out to be. Their d-line isn't as bad as it used to be, they do have a solid starting corner, and they just revamped their LBer corps. 

Offensively, Shanahan's leading with his magic, so they could be a threat. Then again, it took Matt Ryan two seasons to get used to said playcalling, so I have no idea.

[KB_fan]

5 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

I tend to think that the 49er game may not be as easy as everyone is making it out to be. Their d-line isn't as bad as it used to be, they do have a solid starting corner, and they just revamped their LBer corps. 

Offensively, Shanahan's leading with his magic, so they could be a threat.

Add to the mix that they have a very strong recent streak of winning their season openers.  I forget the details, but I *think* I saw something about them leading the league in terms of week 1 win% in the past 7 or 8 seasons.

It is VITAL to our season that we start strong this year, otherwise I fear the internal dysfunction could blow up...  As much as some (or many) dislike Ron or Shula, it likely would not be a good thing if either got canned mid-season!