Can 2017 Panthers break trend and start season FAST? A look at 2011-2016 data for every game & each quarter of the season

[KB_fan]

Most of us hardcore fans know that under Ron Rivera & Cam Newton, since 2011, the Carolina Panthers have tended to get off to slow starts...

I decided to dig a little more deeply into the stats.

Here's a table with data for each game week by week, and the quarterly stats, for each season 2011 - 2016. 

Since 2011 here's our W-L record each quarter of the season:

Q1:  10-14

Q2: 13-10-1

Q3: 12-12

Q4: 18-6

Panthers have gone 1-3 in their 1st 4 games in 4 of the past 6 seasons.  In 2014 they went 2-2, and of course, in 2015, they went 4-0 in the first quarter of the season.  You take out the amazing 2015 season, and the Panthers are 6-14 in the 1st quarter of the season.  OUCH.

Most of the early weakness has been on Offense.  September (Quarter 1) is historically the worst for our offense, with an average of only 22 points per game in the first month of the season.

To state something fairly obvious, I believe we need to win our season opener and win at least 2, if not all 3 of our 1st 3 games.  San Francisco hopefully should be easy (though SF has a very good recent week 1 winning streak, and starting on the road is not ideal).  Playing Sean McD's Bills could be tougher than expected given his inside knowledge..., Saints are always tough if Drew Brees is playing well.... and THEN Patriots in Foxboro.  It's not a walk-in-the-park beginning of the season.  But if our offense can get comfortable and get on a winning streak QUICKLY, 2017 could be an amazing season.  On paper we have the weapons on both sides of the ball.  But the mental aspect is huge, and early wins could be critical.

More commentary to follow...

[KB_fan]

Before I go any further can I just say "WOW" regarding the Panthers' December (4th quarter) record.  Even with last year's struggles, it's incredibly impressive.

18-6

Defense has only allowed 18.7 points per average in those 24 games.  Offense has averaged nearly 27 points a game, for a whopping point differential of 194 points in the Panthers favor - 8 points per game.

The 4th quarter of the season is historically by FAR the Panthers best on Defense, while also being best for the Offense by a slimmer margin.

It's interesting to look at 2016 in light of those historical trends. 

In 2016, the Panthers Offense again finished pretty strong.  It was their best overall quarter of the season, with only 20.3 points allowed per game.  In fact in 3 of those 4 games (except vs. Atlanta) we held our opponents to 17 or less.

But the offense did NOT live up to it's normal December strength.  The offense got worse throughout the season.  We put up significantly more points per game in the 1st half of the season, especially the 1st quarter, than the final half of the season.

[KB_fan]

A few more notes on interesting and/or quirky trends in Panthers scoring history since 2011:

Week 1 & Week 9 historically their worst games on offense since 2011. In week 1 never scored more than 21 points under Cam Newton & Rivera.

The 3rd qtr of season is historically WORST for Panthers DEFENSE since 2011, w/ avg of 24.8 ppg allowed. 4th qtr of season best (18.7 ppg)

Panthers have struggled WORST in wk 4 since 2011 (1-5 record) Never held opponents (ATL twice, AZ, TB, BAL, CHI) to less than 20 points.

We're undefeated in game 14 of the season since 2011.

Here's a closer look at the week by week stats and averages since 2011:

As you can see, our weakest games on offense have been week 9, week 1, week 3.

For defense, they've allowed most points in week 4, week 10, week 12.

[gmonjimbo]

One thing that I hope will be reported throughout training camp is the intensity of practice. I think that plays into the slow starts 

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, gmonjimbo said:

One thing that I hope will be reported throughout training camp is the intensity of practice. I think that plays into the slow starts 

Yeah, I think it's good we're doing the joint practice with the Titans.  May help focus our players & coaches earlier rather than later.

[panthers55]

3 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Before I go any further can I just say "WOW" regarding the Panthers' December (4th quarter) record.  Even with last year's struggles, it's incredibly impressive.

18-6

Defense has only allowed 18.7 points per average in those 24 games.  Offense has averaged nearly 27 points a game, for a whopping point differential of 194 points in the Panthers favor - 8 points per game.

The 4th quarter of the season is historically by FAR the Panthers best on Defense, while also being best for the Offense by a slimmer margin.

It's interesting to look at 2016 in light of those historical trends. 

In 2016, the Panthers Offense again finished pretty strong.  It was their best overall quarter of the season, with only 20.3 points allowed per game.  In fact in 3 of those 4 games (except vs. Atlanta) we held our opponents to 17 or less.

But the offense did NOT live up to it's normal December strength.  The offense got worse throughout the season.  We put up significantly more points per game in the 1st half of the season, especially the 1st quarter, than the final half of the season.

Much of this late quarter magic occurs when everyone knows their responsibilities on both sides of the ball and have developed chemistry. It seems between injuries, rookies and constantly revolving free agents we rarely had much experience or depth early in the year. Every successful year had us losing critical pieces of the roster and replacing them with rookies and jags and guys trying to rebound. It took time for the coaches to teach our complex schemes instead of paying veterans to do the job so there isn't a big drop off.

[panthers55]

How quickly our offense gels in large part will depend on how healthy Cam is, and how quickly he embraces the new scheme. 

[JawnyBlaze]

I do think we go 3-0 to start the season.  SF is SF.  Any given Sunday and all that, but they're still a dumpster fire with nothing at QB.  The Bills are the Bills.  McDermott can have all the inside knowledge he wants, but that team is severely devoid of talent.  I think we'll beat the Saints at home in a close one in one of our usual shootouts with them.  The real test of how the season is going to pan out is week 4.  If we win, I think the whole season will fall into place and we'll go no worse than 12-4 and win the division.  If we lose a close one, I think we'll get around 10-12 wins and maybe win the division or maybe get a wildcard.  If we get blown the f out, I think we'll miss the playoffs. 

[Hoenheim]

1 hour ago, JawnyBlaze said:

I do think we go 3-0 to start the season.  SF is SF.  Any given Sunday and all that, but they're still a dumpster fire with nothing at QB.  The Bills are the Bills.  McDermott can have all the inside knowledge he wants, but that team is severely devoid of talent.  I think we'll beat the Saints at home in a close one in one of our usual shootouts with them.  The real test of how the season is going to pan out is week 4.  If we win, I think the whole season will fall into place and we'll go no worse than 12-4 and win the division.  If we lose a close one, I think we'll get around 10-12 wins and maybe win the division or maybe get a wildcard.  If we get blown the f out, I think we'll miss the playoffs. 

You can't put everything on the first 4 games of the season dude. But I get what you're trying to say. I think Greg was quoted in an interview before this year's Super Bowl (51) that momentum and the mindset of the players are huge. Losing twice in a row basically to Denver absolutely killed the team's momentum and confidence before the season could really get underway. Yeah we still had injuries aplenty and were still starting 2 rookie CBs, but if we win game 1 on a last second field goal, we might have gone 8-8 , 9-7, or 10-6 easily. Keep in mind even with all that inexperience in the secondary and all the injuries, we lost 6 games by 3 points or less. 

The shitty thing is every single schedule prediction for the Panthers I've watched/read so far, has us taking an automatic L to the Patriots. I'm just hoping the team goes in there with that mindset that everyone is predicting them to lose and we go fug their poo up and put the league on notice by starting off 4-0 and capping it off with a win against the patriots by a couple touchdowns . 

 

[KB_fan]

2 minutes ago, Hoenheim said:

The shitty thing is every single schedule prediction for the Panthers I've watched/read so far, has us taking an automatic L to the Patriots. I'm just hoping the team goes in there with that mindset that everyone is predicting them to lose and we go fug their poo up and put the league on notice

We did it in 2013 with that MNF win.  My  that was fun!

[Hoenheim]

1 minute ago, KB_fan said:

We did it in 2013 with that MNF win.  My  that was fun!

And NO ONE on these schedule predictions is acknowledging or remembering that game. Real talk Cam Newton is 1- 0 Against Brady and Bellicheck. How awesome would it be if we beat them in game  4 and in the Super Bowl this year? After everyone talking all that poo about Cam he's got this irrefutable 3-0 against arguably the best coached/QBd team in the modern post 2000 era. 

A Man Can Dream. 

[GoobyPls]

If we lose week 1 to SF with Hoyer starting, might as well get ready for a long season.