I'm working on two analytical articles for next week... would welcome questions

[Datawire]

What a dick hole.

Interesting and hard working analysis is provided geared towards our own Carolina Panthers, and part of what what makes this forum great,  he wants to dispute with emotional drivel with no hard data to back up, against actual hard data  provided. Clifton would not be happy with you.

Keep it up KB. I look forward to the regular season info you post. I may not always reply but I always read it.

 

[outlaw4]

Just two items on the top of my head and they might be done already:

1. Everyone says preseason doesn't matter and does not correlate with regular season performance. However, is this true across the board or are there one or two indicators that do have some carryover?

2. Our offensive struggles in past seasons have often been attributed to shuffling on the offensive line due to injuries. How much does that argument have merit and does it apply to other teams (ex. Vikings last year)?

[jfra78]

Didn't we win the first game when we went 1-16? I will be interested in seeing your findings.

[KB_fan]

6 hours ago, outlaw4 said:

Just two items on the top of my head and they might be done already:

1. Everyone says preseason doesn't matter and does not correlate with regular season performance. However, is this true across the board or are there one or two indicators that do have some carryover?

2. Our offensive struggles in past seasons have often been attributed to shuffling on the offensive line due to injuries. How much does that argument have merit and does it apply to other teams (ex. Vikings last year)?

Good questions.

I'm not sure I'll be able to address either in the two articles I've been working on. 

1) Re Preseason:  I did a little bit of analysis of preseason significance for the Panthers back in 2015 (looking at 2013, 2014, and early games of 2015).  I think I found a few stats that tended to carryover to the season.  Off the top of my head:  sacks (made and allowed), turnovers, penalties, come to mind.  I'd have to look back to see if there were other stats related to offensive or defensive efficiency (points, yards, 3rd down conversions, etc.) that translated to the regular season.  But I don't think there was much... Preseason is tough because often in games you've got one team's twos playing against the other teams ones,  or twos vs threes...  makes meaningful stat analysis pretty difficult without a close look at each game's context.

2) Definitely won't be able to look at this, but I've certainly seen lots of articles over the past few years that mention the importance of consistency on O-line for MOST teams.  (Patriots were amazing in 2015.  Gazillion O line combinations and still they kept winning...).  If I can find any good links, I'll post them here.

[KB_fan]

4 hours ago, jfra78 said:

Didn't we win the first game when we went 1-16? I will be interested in seeing your findings.

Yup.  2001 we beat Minnesota 24-13 in game 1, and then lost our other 15 games.  So, a week 1 win doesn't ensure a great season.  Just as a week 1 loss (2013) doesn't ensure a bad season.  So I'm not trying to say this is a fail proof indicator of anything. 

Just that historically, Panthers have been a poor week 1 team, and also that historically, they have a MUCH MUCH higher chance of making the playoffs when they win week 1.  Panthers in recent years at least have been a BIG "momentum" team - going on spectacular winning streaks and losing streaks.  Big wins against our hardest opponents often seem to spark us.  Tough losses can deflate us.  We swing high one year (winning season), followed by a losing season the next...

For whatever reason, emotion seems to be a big factor in this team's performance for good or for bad, and it's not just a recent thing under Ron as head coach. 

Week 1 wins or losses seem to disproportionately affect Panthers and 3 or 4 other teams in terms of ultimate season outcome.

[KB_fan]

10 hours ago, outlaw4 said:

Just two items on the top of my head and they might be done already:

1. Everyone says preseason doesn't matter and does not correlate with regular season performance. However, is this true across the board or are there one or two indicators that do have some carryover?

I know it's not exactly what you asked, but it was fun to see this on Twitter today:

9 of 9 last Superbowl winners were .500 or better in preseason of their superbowl season

 

And actually this is ALSO TRUE for 8 of the last 9 SuperBowl losers - all but Indy in 2009:

 

 

 

So I looked at this year's preseason records:

ATL, OAK and Patriots all with losing preseason records... (among others)

 

[therealmjl]

How about:

Punt Returns- Do they even matter anymore? A look at the number of returns that get called back due to penalty.

[KB_fan]

15 minutes ago, mjligon said:

How about:

Punt Returns- Do they even matter anymore? A look at the number of returns that get called back due to penalty.

Interesting question.

Definitely won't be something I can research or discuss in my articles this coming week, but I'll keep it in mind for the future...

[therealmjl]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

Interesting question.

Definitely won't be something I can research or discuss in my articles this coming week, but I'll keep it in mind for the future...

Hah yea I wouldn't expect anyone to research that but it popped in my head last night when Clays return was called back.

[trueblade]

18 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Hi all,

2) Topic 2:  Strength of Schedule analysis - do all games matter equally?  Are some wins or losses bigger than others?  How have we done against our most difficult opponents over the years and does it matter?  We've all heard the comments about our easy schedule in 2015.  Was it true?  Was our 2016 schedule really hard?  What might be our most important games in 2017?

One thing that might be interesting to analyze is expected strength of schedule versus actual. For example, everyone in the NFC South (except for Carolina) looked like they had a tough schedule in 2016 because they had two 15-1 games (vs CAR) on their schedule. In the preseason, their strength of schedule would have been 30-2, but after the season, we can see it was actually 12-20.

[KB_fan]

14 minutes ago, trueblade said:

One thing that might be interesting to analyze is expected strength of schedule versus actual.

Yes, I did this for the Panthers for past 6 seasons... quite interesting.  2015 actual SoS super easy.  2016 actual SoS hardest in Ron/Cam era.

But of course a team's own W-L record affects the records of the teams they played - especially division rivals, so it's still not a super accurate reflection of quality of competition.