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NFCS Round 1 Draft Analysis

Varking

By Varking,
in Carolina Panthers

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Varking Grand Master

Varking

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New Orleans Saints: 11 Wins to 5 Losses

  • Drafted: Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio
  • Helps: New Orleans finished with 42 sacks last season which was tied for 7th in the NFL. 
  • My Analysis: This was a questionable pick at that slot regardless but when you factor in they swapped this year's first rounders, gave up a 5th this season and gave up the first round pick next season it really makes you scratch your head. Is he a finished product? Is he that much better than the other DT/DEs in the draft? You could make the argument they gave up a ton for a guy who is marginally better than another pass rusher like Rasheem Green. Davenport last season playing against nobody finished with 8.5 sacks where Green played much better competition and finished with 10. The two can be swapped out and I feel this pick was quite the reach. 

Carolina Panthers: 11 Wins to 5 Losses

  • Drafted: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
  • Helps: The Carolina Panthers finished 28th out of 32 teams in Passing Yards in last season. 
  • My Analysis: The Panthers got the best available player at a huge position of need. This was a slam dunk pick. Even if they went with Ridley it would have been an outstanding pick but Moore flashed more as a younger, stronger, faster WR with a selection of even less talented QBs throwing to him. The idea of Moore as the 1, Funchess as the 2, either of their speed guys as the slot, Olsen at Tight End and CMC catching out of the backfield after a year of exposure to NFL speed should see the Panthers jump to the top half of the league in passing next season if Cam can remain upright. 

Atlanta Falcons: 10 Wins to 6 Losses

  • Drafted: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
  • Helps: Atlanta finished 8th in Passing Yards last season. They were 5th in Yards Per Attempt. 
  • My Analysis: I don't understand the pick here. Atlanta performed well on offense and they were a top ten passing offense in the NFL. Not only that but they have one of the top three WRs in the NFL in Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu proved to be a reliable #2 who ended up scoring their most receiving touchdowns even over Julio Jones. They also had two young WRs emerging in the slot in Taylor Gabriel and they like Justin Hardy. They got the best WR on the board at this point at the end of the first round but they could have gone other ways to really help themselves out. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5 Wins to 11 Losses

  • Drafted: Vita Vea, DT, Washington
  • Helps: Tampa Bay was enigmatic on defense last year. They gave up more yards than any other team in the NFL and were one of the worst teams giving up 7.8 YPA, but they were tied with both Atlanta and New Orleans by giving up just 22 touchdowns during the season. That was tied for 12th and was only one more touchdown given up than the Rams as a comparison. The belief is that Vita Vea will help open up the line for others to get sacks because they were the worst team in the NFL with just 22 sacks last season. The next worst was the Colts with 25. 
  • My Analysis: Stud pick and they got two additional second-round picks by moving back in the draft with the Bills to get them more help. He should help their line get pressure on the QB but I am not sold on it since he himself had his production drop from his Sophmore to Junior year. Last year he got 3.5 sacks, 0 forced fumbles and only 5.5 tackles for a loss. A guy his size in the Pac 12 should have been able to smother the backfield. 

The Carolina Panthers looks like they got the most help for their team on day one of the draft. We have one pick in the second round at the same slot as our first and in the third, we have two picks. Tampa Bay finished the day second when it comes to round one improvement but they look to dominate day two of the draft with the additional picks they got from their round one trade giving them three second-round picks. Atlanta finishes third for day one and they sit tight like the Panthers on day 2 while also having one pick in the third. The Saints got the least bang for their buck during round one and do not have a second-round pick. They will pick again at the end of the third round. 

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saints4lifeagain Rookie

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Clay Matthews had 4.5 sacks his college career. Jarvis Jones had one of the highest sack totals of all time in college. 

Projections often times have nothing to do with production, especially as a pass rusher. Too many factors go into getting sacks. 

Davenport was graded as the 2nd best DE in this class, outside of Chubb. He was going top 15. Green is going 2nd-3rd. It's not the same.

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Varking Grand Master

Varking

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Just because he was the next best doesn't mean he was the right pick at that slot for that cost. You need this kid to become all pro to justify being your first and second round pick this year and also your first round pick next year. You almost lost to the Panthers in the playoffs by giving up 350 yards passing to Cam Newton despite something like 5 or 6 sacks. You lost to Case Keenum the next week again giving up over 300 yards passing. You could have given up way less to get secondary help. 

Also, I am not saying the kid won't be a good pick, but for the cost of getting him on a team that was already top ten in sacks it is hard to justify the cost. You guys were 5th worst in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at 4.4. This isn't a pick that helps that. 

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saints4lifeagain Rookie

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1 minute ago, Varking said:

Just because he was the next best doesn't mean he was the right pick at that slot for that cost. You need this kid to become all pro to justify being your first and second round pick this year and also your first round pick next year. You almost lost to the Panthers in the playoffs by giving up 350 yards passing to Cam Newton despite something like 5 or 6 sacks. You lost to Case Keenum the next week again giving up over 300 yards passing. You could have given up way less to get secondary help. 

Also, I am not saying the kid won't be a good pick, but for the cost of getting him on a team that was already top ten in sacks it is hard to justify the cost. You guys were 5th worst in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at 4.4. This isn't a pick that helps that. 

Saints didn't give up their second round pick this year in this trade. 

The Saints desperately needed an outside rusher opposite of Cam. Okafor played very, very well last year and the numbers for the defense took a dip once he went down and the pressure slowed up. This was the biggest need on the team. You can argue against the assets given up, as well as against the player, but don't try to make it seem like it wasn't a need. That makes you lose some credibility that you still have left, after you didn't even know what the Saints gave up in the trade.

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Varking Grand Master

Varking

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When did I say the Saints gave up this years second rounder in this trade? You are annoyed at my general analysis which I get because its not in favor of your team but I never said you gave up a second round pick for him this year.

I was pointing out the fact that you have no second rounder this year and no first rounder next year now. This kid is the first and second this year now for you and your first next year, barring other trades. 

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Varking Grand Master

Varking

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13 minutes ago, saints4lifeagain said:

Saints didn't give up their second round pick this year in this trade. 

That makes you lose some credibility that you still have left, after you didn't even know what the Saints gave up in the trade.

2

Just to point out where you skipped, this is what I posted in the initial analysis:

This was a questionable pick at that slot regardless but when you factor in they swapped this year's first rounders, gave up a 5th this season and gave up the first round pick next season it really makes you scratch your head.

Sorry for wording it where it was confusing for you. 

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saints4lifeagain Rookie

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9 minutes ago, Varking said:

When did I say the Saints gave up this years second rounder in this trade? You are annoyed at my general analysis which I get because its not in favor of your team but I never said you gave up a second round pick for him this year.

I was pointing out the fact that you have no second rounder this year and no first rounder next year now. This kid is the first and second this year now for you and your first next year, barring other trades. 

 

3 minutes ago, Varking said:

Just to point out where you skipped, this is what I posted in the initial analysis:

This was a questionable pick at that slot regardless but when you factor in they swapped this year's first rounders, gave up a 5th this season and gave up the first round pick next season it really makes you scratch your head.

Sorry for wording it where it was confusing for you. 

I'm not annoyed lol. We're just talking. The trade is gonna be heavily scrutinized. He has to produce. Time will tell if he does. 

In that case, he's still not our second rounder this year. That's Alvin Kamara.

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Saca312 Experienced

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42 minutes ago, saints4lifeagain said:

Davenport was graded as the 2nd best DE in this class, outside of Chubb. He was going top 15. Green is going 2nd-3rd. It's not the same.

I mean, are you honestly not scratching your head over giving up a first rounder next year AND a fifth rounder for what amounts to be a guy who likely won't be making a serious impact until down the road?

He's a bit raw. Pretty bad value considering the amount you gave up. Sure, he has potential to be good, but imo he's the 3rd best DE in this class behind a healthy Harold Landry and a Nick Chubb. And the drop-off from those two is pretty large in comparison.

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Varking Grand Master

Varking

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1 minute ago, saints4lifeagain said:

 

I'm not annoyed lol. We're just talking. The trade is gonna be heavily scrutinized. He has to produce. Time will tell if he does. 

In that case, he's still not our second rounder this year. That's Alvin Kamara.

Good point on Kamara. He's the type of talent and had the production that if he would have cost even more, it would have been worth it. He has been that amazing. 

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saints4lifeagain Rookie

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4 minutes ago, Saca312 said:

I mean, are you honestly not scratching your head over giving up a first rounder next year AND a fifth rounder for what amounts to be a guy who likely won't be making a serious impact until down the road?

He's a bit raw. Pretty bad value considering the amount you gave up. Sure, he has potential to be good, but imo he's the 3rd best DE in this class behind a healthy Harold Landry and a Nick Chubb. And the drop-off from those two is pretty large in comparison.

I've said a few times I don't love the trade. I don't hate it, but I don't love it. I do, however, love the player, and I think it's pretty obvious the Saints feel like he can have an immidiate impact, as well as plenty of room to grow. 

I think those 3 were fairly close, in most peoples boards, but it's apparent NFL teams don't agree. The first 2 were top 15 picks. The other fell out of the first round. I'm a Landry fan so I won't poo on him, but it appears the size concerns are real. 

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1 hour ago, Varking said:

New Orleans Saints: 11 Wins to 5 Losses

  • Drafted: Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio
  • Helps: New Orleans finished with 42 sacks last season which was tied for 7th in the NFL. 
  • My Analysis: This was a questionable pick at that slot regardless but when you factor in they swapped this year's first rounders, gave up a 5th this season and gave up the first round pick next season it really makes you scratch your head. Is he a finished product? Is he that much better than the other DT/DEs in the draft? You could make the argument they gave up a ton for a guy who is marginally better than another pass rusher like Rasheem Green. Davenport last season playing against nobody finished with 8.5 sacks where Green played much better competition and finished with 10. The two can be swapped out and I feel this pick was quite the reach. 

Carolina Panthers: 11 Wins to 5 Losses

  • Drafted: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
  • Helps: The Carolina Panthers finished 28th out of 32 teams in Passing Yards in last season. 
  • My Analysis: The Panthers got the best available player at a huge position of need. This was a slam dunk pick. Even if they went with Ridley it would have been an outstanding pick but Moore flashed more as a younger, stronger, faster WR with a selection of even less talented QBs throwing to him. The idea of Moore as the 1, Funchess as the 2, either of their speed guys as the slot, Olsen at Tight End and CMC catching out of the backfield after a year of exposure to NFL speed should see the Panthers jump to the top half of the league in passing next season if Cam can remain upright. 

Atlanta Falcons: 10 Wins to 6 Losses

  • Drafted: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
  • Helps: Atlanta finished 8th in Passing Yards last season. They were 5th in Yards Per Attempt. 
  • My Analysis: I don't understand the pick here. Atlanta performed well on offense and they were a top ten passing offense in the NFL. Not only that but they have one of the top three WRs in the NFL in Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu proved to be a reliable #2 who ended up scoring their most receiving touchdowns even over Julio Jones. They also had two young WRs emerging in the slot in Taylor Gabriel and they like Justin Hardy. They got the best WR on the board at this point at the end of the first round but they could have gone other ways to really help themselves out. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5 Wins to 11 Losses

  • Drafted: Vita Vea, DT, Washington
  • Helps: Tampa Bay was enigmatic on defense last year. They gave up more yards than any other team in the NFL and were one of the worst teams giving up 7.8 YPA, but they were tied with both Atlanta and New Orleans by giving up just 22 touchdowns during the season. That was tied for 12th and was only one more touchdown given up than the Rams as a comparison. The belief is that Vita Vea will help open up the line for others to get sacks because they were the worst team in the NFL with just 22 sacks last season. The next worst was the Colts with 25. 
  • My Analysis: Stud pick and they got two additional second-round picks by moving back in the draft with the Bills to get them more help. He should help their line get pressure on the QB but I am not sold on it since he himself had his production drop from his Sophmore to Junior year. Last year he got 3.5 sacks, 0 forced fumbles and only 5.5 tackles for a loss. A guy his size in the Pac 12 should have been able to smother the backfield. 

The Carolina Panthers looks like they got the most help for their team on day one of the draft. We have one pick in the second round at the same slot as our first and in the third, we have two picks. Tampa Bay finished the day second when it comes to round one improvement but they look to dominate day two of the draft with the additional picks they got from their round one trade giving them three second-round picks. Atlanta finishes third for day one and they sit tight like the Panthers on day 2 while also having one pick in the third. The Saints got the least bang for their buck during round one and do not have a second-round pick. They will pick again at the end of the third round. 

Jesus, who the hell cares.

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