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Who to Root for (Week 15)

Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.

By Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.,
in Carolina Panthers

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Ricky Spanish Grand Master

Ricky Spanish

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

Just curious...

If the Panthers had the 9th pick in the 2019 draft, who would you have picked instead of Burns?

I probably would have taken Burns at 9 as well. I think we were very fortunate with the way the board fell in our favor. most years aren't like last year when the guys at the top of your list aren't needed or targeted by the teams in front of you. 

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brandon_87 Newbie

brandon_87

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4 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

A win could be devastating to our draft position. Just added that a Panthers win could drop us as low as 17th. 

We said the same thing and week 17 last year and completely forgot to take that game for a draft spot. I don't remember the exact amount of spaces that we lost because of that pointless win but I know it was not worth it

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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On 12/11/2019 at 2:51 PM, Cracka McNasty said:

I probably would have taken Burns at 9 as well. I think we were very fortunate with the way the board fell in our favor. most years aren't like last year when the guys at the top of your list aren't needed or targeted by the teams in front of you. 

Might not have needed to trade up to get Greg Little in that scenario, though.

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Kuechly&Moore Newbie

Kuechly&Moore

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Posted
On 12/11/2019 at 11:31 AM, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

With the Panthers officially eliminated from the playoffs, it is time to turn our attention toward draft stock.  This is the list of teams to root for in Week 15 to improve the Panthers draft capital.

As of now, the Panther currently would have the 12th pick in the draft. Tied with 4 other teams at 5-8, the Panthers have by far the greatest strength of schedule, dropping them to last among those 4 teams. I will be looking at 2 factors to aid in determining the best outcome for Carolina. Does a win possibly move a team ahead of Carolina in the draft order, or does a win help/hurt Carolina's strength of schedule (SOS).  Remember that a higher SOS is bad for draft order. I will list games in order of perceived importance and assuming we lose. 


New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens: A Jets win moves them to 6-8 and directly improves our draft position.

Minnesota Vikings @ LA Chargers: A Chargers win moves them to 6-8 and directly improves our draft position.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: A Broncos win moves them to 6-8 and directly improves our draft position. 

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers. A Falcons win would potentially tie them with Carolina at 5-9.  They are one of the few teams with a higher SOS (.555 vs .536), so our draft position would directly improve, though this would minimally increase our SOS as we played ATL twice and SF only once. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders: A Jaguars win would potentially tie them with Carolina at 5-9. Though they have a lower SOS, we would need another Jaguars win in order to move ahead of them in the draft order. This would negatively increase our SOS. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions: A Lions win moves them to 4-9-1, and they would remain half a game ahead of us in draft draft position.  We would need another lions win in order to move ahead of them in the draft order. This also favorably lowers our SOS. Tampa would also remain behind Carolina in the draft order having 6 wins. 

Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals: A Cardinals win moves them to 4-9-1, and they would remain half a game ahead of us in draft draft position. We would need another Cardinals win in order to move ahead of them in the draft order.  This chance to move up comes at a price, as it would increase our SOS. 

Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants: If the Dolphins win their remaining 3 football games, We could move ahead of them in the draft order. As their SOS sits at .490, we would lose the tie breaker. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: If the Redskins win their remaining 3 football games, We could move ahead of them in the draft order. As their SOS sits at .483, we would lose the tie breaker. This chance to move up comes at a price, as it would increase our SOS. 

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orlean Saints: A Colts win would move them to 7 wins. This does not have a direct effect on our draft position, but allows for Carolina to accidently win another game without directly losing a draft spot to the Colts whose SOS is lower (.486). A Saints loss also favorably lowers our SOS.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers:  A Bears win would move them to 8 wins. A Packers loss favorably lowers our SOS. 

LA Rams @ Dallas Cowboys: A Cowboys win moves them to 7 wins. A Rams loss favorably lowers our SOS. 

Games that don't have an impact:

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Panthers currently sit at pick 12. If the perfect scenario occurs this weekend, we could move as high as 8th, jumping the Broncos, Chargers, Jets, and Falcons (higher SOS). We could move up 4 Spots to pick 8, conversely a win could possibly catapult us as low as pick 17. 

For the draft SOS is reversed.... For draft positioning the team that played has a weaker SOS wins the tiebreaker.....  

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weyco2000 Mentor

weyco2000

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On 12/11/2019 at 12:24 PM, Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D. said:

To each their own. Even if there is a sliver of a chance at a playoff appearance, I am all for hoping for the best and cheering on the Panthers.  Once we are eliminated, it is all about making the team better for next year IMO. And that entails improved draft capitol and young players getting experience over veterans.

I think this is never as important as it is this season. We will be overhauling the coaching staff, and a team with higher draft capitol may be a huge selling point to a future GM/Head Coach. Whether the team won or lost its last 3 games without its head coach feels relatively unimportant.  Remember, the difference between picking 8th and 17th doesn't just affect the first round of the draft, it affects every round.  

For comparison, when evaluating draft capitol (The values for each pick were determined by Jimmy Johnson and are widely used), the team currently sitting with the 8th pick has an estimated draft capitol value of 2,574.6 and the team drafting at 19th has an estimated draft capitol value of 1,489.   This makes a huge difference in not only the quality of players we are able to draft, but also may sway a GM to choose Carolina over another team. 

I do however see the painful irony in not actively rooting for your team to win. For me, it helps justify the loses and makes what is about to be a very sad ending to the season bearable. 

Let me provide an analogy. Yes, going out to eat may be nice. It provides immediate positive feelings. But sometimes, you need to put that money away for retirement. 

 

Tanking leads to demise, it becomes a culture.  Just stop it, there's guys fighting for jobs.

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